The Texas Rangers have missed the postseason in each of the last two seasons after their World Series run. They’ll now proceed into the offseason with a to-do list to buck that trend.
Their free agency decisions — both internal and external — will help determine that. We’ll break down the club’s pitching outlook this week. Today’s topic: right-handed starters.
Overview: The Rangers already have their ace (or, rather, aces) in right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. Second-year right-hander Jack Leiter might not be far behind should he take another step forward after an impressive rookie campaign this year.
The question is how Texas will build out the back end of its rotation with a bullpen and a lineup to work at as well. The hope is that right-hander Kumar Rocker can show similar signs of growth as Leiter did last season and cement himself as a rotation option. The Rangers gave right-hander Jose Corniell (their No. 3 prospect per MLB Pipeline) a taste of the big leagues in September. Winston Santos, another right-hander and the club’s fourth-ranked prospect, reached Triple-A Round Rock this year and should see the majors next year. An over-reliance on rookies, though, can be problematic if they don’t develop as expected. Especially with a host of veteran starters set to enter free agency.
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The big fish: Dylan Cease. The Rangers had reported interest in the 29-year-old prior to last season when the Chicago White Sox put him on the block. The San Diego Padres swept in with a high-caliber prospect package that the Rangers weren’t prepared to offer.
They wouldn’t need to part with young talent this time around.
Here’s the obvious: Cease would give the Rangers an unimpeachably good top quartet of right-handers atop their rotation. He’s struck out 200-plus batters in five-straight seasons and owns a career 3.88 ERA. He yielded a 4.55 ERA last season with the Padres but his peripheral figures (including an expected 3.47 ERA according to Baseball Savant) suggest that he over-performed his statistics.
Here’s the holdup: He may be the best right-handed start on the market so long as the Milwaukee Brewers pick up All-Star Freddy Peralta’s favorable club option for next season. That may force teams in need of a high-end arm to overextend for Cease and price the Rangers out. He’s projected to earn more than $26 million per year on his next deal, per Spotrac, which is arguably more than the Rangers can stomach to spend with a bullpen to rebuild and an offense to retool.
The middle man: Zack Littell. Everyone loves a reunion. Littell, 30, spent five months in the organization two years ago but never pitched for the big league team before the Rangers dealt him to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for cash. He spent the last two seasons with the Tampa Bay Rays and Cincinnati Reds and, among pitchers who’ve thrown 300 or more innings in that span, his 3.73 ERA ranks 25th-best leaguewide.
Littell logged 150 innings or more in each of the last two seasons and only landed on the injured list once. He’s a fit in the middle of the rotation if the Rangers don’t intend to re-sign either Tyler Mahle or Merrill Kelly and, at Spotrac’s $12 million per year estimation, is more palatable than Cease’s high-dollar deal.
Other options in this tier also include familiar faces in Michael Lorenzen and Adrian Houser. Lorenzen had a 3.81 ERA in a half-season with the Rangers last year and pitched admirably out of the bullpen in his final appearance before he was traded to the Kansas City Royals before the deadline. Houser spent the first two months of this season at Triple-A Round Rock and pitched well enough in the spring to garner roster consideration. He was traded to the White Sox (and then later traded to the Rays) and had a 3.31 ERA in the big leagues last year.
The value pick: Dustin May. What’s another former Los Angeles Dodger on this roster? May, once a top prospect, hadn’t pitched more than 56 innings in a single season prior to this year. The issue is that it resulted in his worst big league season yet split between the Dodgers and Red Sox.
May posted a 4.96 ERA in 132 1/3 innings and was moved into Boston’s bullpen before he was placed on the injured list with the elbow injury. His pedigree and prior sample sizes (including a 2.74 ERA or better in three of his last five seasons) are attractive. His injury history (six trips to the injured list with largely arm and elbow ailments since the 2021 season) are worrisome. It could make the 28-year-old a high-ceiling flier that the Rangers could try out for the back end of the rotation alongside Rocker and company.
X/Twitter: @McFarland_Shawn
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