The Texas Rangers have missed the postseason in each of the last two seasons after their World Series run. They’ll now proceed into the offseason with a to-do list to buck that trend.
Their free agency decisions — both internal and external — will help determine that. We’ll break down the club’s pitching outlook this week. Today’s topic: left-handed starters.
Overview: The Texas rotation is right-hander heavy. Their left-hander options include Cody Bradford (who underwent elbow surgery in June) and Jacob Latz (who shifted between the bullpen and rotation last year). Rangers president of baseball operations Chris Young did not commit to a long-term role in either direction for Latz at the club’s end-of-year presser.
The other end of this discussion is that the rotation — which was baseball’s best last season and will return its three best arms — may not be a significant priority this winter with a bullpen to rebuild and an offense to tweak. The Rangers won’t exceed the collective bargaining tax threshold next season and expect payroll to decrease. The scale of which it shrinks will determine how much the club can spend on the middle and back end of their rotation.
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The big fish: Ranger Suarez. He’s already got the name for the gig. He’s got the talent, too, and will be among the most in-demand pitchers on the market this winter.
Suarez recorded a 3.20 ERA in 157 1/3 innings last season and posted a 4.0 WAR, per FanGraphs, that ranked sixth leaguewide among all left-handed pitchers. His changeup and curveball are both plus pitches and his career 1.48 ERA in the playoff fits for a team with postseason aspirations.
He’d give the Rangers one of the single best trios of starters in baseball. He’d also cost more than Texas may be able to pay given other areas of need. The 30-year-old could earn north of $25 million per season on his next deal, per Spotrac, and will be among baseball’s premier free agents if the Philadelphia Phillies let him hit the market.
Houston Astros left-hander Framber Valdez should be considered in this territory too. His late-season performance — which includes an on-field incident in which he appeared to intentionally hit his own catcher with a pitch — could cause interested teams to balk.
“I definitely think that incident will impact his market,” one executive told MLB.com. “I’m not sure to what degree, but I am confident that there are players and teams that will be somewhat hesitant to trust him.”
The middle man: Tyler Anderson. He’s made at least 25 starts in each of the last five seasons and has been serviceable (4.11 ERA) in that span. He made $13 million last season as a 35-year-old with the Los Angeles Angels but posted a 4.56 ERA in 26 starts. Consider him an option if the Rangers desire a veteran arm at the back end of their bullpen that they can land for under $10 million per season.
The value pick: Steven Matz. This one counts as a cop-out because he pitched more games out of the bullpen (49) than out of the rotation (2) last season with the St. Louis Cardinals and Boston Red Sox. But he’s started 172 games in his decade-long career and could serve as a potential swingman if the Rangers intend to shift Latz into the rotation on a full-time basis.
The 34-year-old has something of a Jekyll and Hyde track record. He’s posted a 3.86 ERA or betters in three of his last five seasons but, in the other two, it ballooned to a 5.08 ERA or worse. There are worse options on a cheap, short deal, though, and could potentially fill multiple needs for the Rangers on a budget.
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