Zach Thompson preps you for tonight’s ALCS game between the Blue Jays and the Mariners with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The Mariners went into Toronto and took the first two games of the ALCS, and now they come home on Wednesday night with their ace on the mound, looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead. Can the Blue Jays battle back and keep the road team undefeated in the Championship Series or will the M’s push them to the brink of elimination? Let’s look at some overall strategy for Game 3’s Blue Jays vs. Mariners MLB DFS showdown contests.

The pitching matchup for the critical Game 3 will be fascinating to watch. The Mariners will give the ball to George Kirby ($11,400) for the third time this postseason, while the Blue Jays will turn to veteran Shane Bieber ($11,000), who joined them midseason via a trade.

Let’s take a look at what to expect and how to attack this Blue Jays vs. Mariners matchup.

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Blue Jays vs. Mariners DFS Showdown Strategy

Captain’s Picks

George Kirby ($11,400 CP) – Kirby is my preferred starting pitcher option by a huge margin, given how inconsistent Bieber has been since returning from injury. Kirby hasn’t been pitching especially deep in his playoff outings, but he has been effective, earning 19 fantasy points in Game 1 and 18.8 fantasy points in Game 5 against the Tigers. He didn’t get the win in either outing, but gave up just three runs on nine hits with a total of 14 strikeouts in 10 frames.

The Blue Jays don’t strike out much, so Kirby doesn’t have an extremely high ceiling due to his strikeouts. He does catch them with their timing off, though, after scoring just four runs on eight hits in the first two games of the series. They still only had  nine strikeouts, but especially in the pitcher-friendly park at T-Mobile Park, he should be able to keep the Jays bats quiet enough to still be a good fantasy play.

Jorge Polanco ($11,400 CP) – Over the last few games, Polanco has become a postseason legend in Seattle. He went 1-for-6 but had the game-winning RBI in Game 5 against the Tigers. In this series, he had 10 fantasy points in Game 1, going 2-for-4 with two RBI. He followed that up with 23 fantasy points in Game 2, including a critical three run homer as part of another two-hit performance.

I highlighted Polanco in my Home Run props for Game 3, and I think he’ll be able to keep rolling as the series shifts to Seattle. Polanco was much better at home than on the road this season, posting a .288 batting average, .378 wOBA, and a 158 wRC+ in his 70 games at home this season. While he’s a switch-hitter, most of his power came against righties, who he blasted 21 of his 26 regular season homers against this year. In the ALDS, Polanco went 4-for-14 with two homers and three RBI at home against the Tigers, and he’ll look to continue his outstanding ALCS now that he’ll be on the strong side of his splits as the series moves west. Building around Polanco with Kirby in a UTIL spot leaves more salary for the rest of the roster and allows you to build a well-rounded roster from top to bottom.

UTIL Plays

George Springer ($9,400) – Springer is my top play from the Blue Jays in Game 3. He has at least nine fantasy points in three straight games for Toronto and in four of his six games this postseason. He homered in Game 1 and went 1-for-4 with a double in Game 2. He’s a proven playoff bat, hitting .262 with 21 homers in his 73 playoff games throughout his career, posting a .269 ISO and .366 wOBA.

Josh Naylor ($6,800) – Naylor has quickly become a huge part of the heart of this Mariners squad after joining them in a midseason trade from the Dbacks. He has earned at least 15 fantasy points in three of his last four games after going off for 27 fantasy points in Game 2, with a 3-for-4 performance highlighted by a home run and a stolen base. He finished the regular season with a 12-game hitting streak, going 19-for-44 with four doubles, a home run, and a .448 wOBA over that stretch.

Nathan Lukes ($6,000) Stacking Lukes right behind Springer can be a strong strategy since Lukes is such an affordable play in a premium lineup spot, typically hitting second. The 31-year-old lefty is hitting .412 in the playoffs, going 7-for-17 with two doubles, six RBI, and a walk. He has 12+ fantasy points three times and has averaged 6.8 fantasy points per game in the postseason.

Fades

Shane Bieber ($11,000) – Bieber is an obvious fade for me after he lasted only 2 ⅔ innings in his start in the last round. He will face a Mariners lineup that has looked pretty ferocious over the last two games and now comes home, where they’ll be greeted by a raucous environment. Bieber could have a good game and still not be worth this elevated salary, so I’d rather stack up bats than pay up for a second pitcher in this matchup. If that’s too obvious of a fade, I’m also not buying in on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($8,600) or Daulton Varsho ($8,000) at their salaries given how off their timing has looked in the first two games of this series.

The Outcome

The Mariners have their best pitcher on the mound and a 2-0 lead. They’ve been very good at home this postseason and seem to be rolling. Whether you buy into “momentum” in series or think “momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher,” both advantages lean heavily towards Seattle. It wouldn’t surprise me if the Jays steal Game 4 and extend the series, but I have a hard time seeing them finding their rhythm against Kirby on Wednesday night.

Final Score: Seattle 5, Toronto 1