The offseason is around the corner, and the incoming free agent class is a largely weak group headlined by the likes of Kyle Tucker, Framber Valdez, Kyle Schwarber, and Pete Alonso. After those four names, the drop-off is steep, and teams will have to dig deep into their analytics departments to find the hidden gems of this class that align with their goals.

Among the many infield holes and the uncertainty of where Trevor Story or Alex Bregman will end up come spring training, the Red Sox need to prioritize first base. Last season, the Sox ranked bottom-ten at the position in wRC+ (86), OPS (.691), OBP (.305), and WAR (-0.8). This is despite solid contributions from Abraham Toro early in the season and a nice boost from Nathaniel Lowe to close it out. In addition, Triston Casas has not proven he can stay on the field for a consistent period of time despite the promise he showed early in his career.

If you can bring yourself back to December 2024, you might remember the buzz around Casas as the offseason rolled on. He was offered in plenty of trade packages, but it appeared the Red Sox valued him more than the rest of the league did. So, the Sox stood pat, and fans got themselves excited about his bat-to-ball skills and elite knowledge of the strike zone. Through the 29 games Casas did play, almost none of that showed up. His OBP dropped from a respectable .337 to .277, he hit .182, and he was well below league average with a wRC+ of 56. Casas then fell victim to an awful knee injury running to first base that knocked him out for the season.

It feels as if the story of Triston Casas as a cornerstone piece of the Red Sox organization is coming to a close, which requires them to look outside the box. The highest-ranked primary first base prospect in the farm system right now, according to SoxProspects, is No. 44 prospect Brooks Brannon. Jhostynxon Garcia and Kristian Campbell got some run at first base in the minor leagues, but they are better suited for the outfield.

A Japanese Prodigy

That leads me to draw your attention to one of the greatest power hitters in Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) history: Munetaka Murakami of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows.

He broke the NPB record in 2022 for home runs in a season by a Japanese-born player with 56. The NPB regular season is 143 games long, so it’s plausible he could have tied or broken Aaron Judge’s record of 62 in a 162-game season.

In 2025, he ranked fifth in the NPB in home runs with 22 and first in OPS at 1.043 despite only playing in 56 games. Murakami missed a large portion of the season due to an oblique injury that kept him sidelined. That pace projected to 74 home runs over a full season, which would shatter his original record.

He has been scouted as a middling defensive talent at the corners of the infield, likely bound for first base or designated hitter at the major league level. One potential problem he may run into is his strikeout rate. In his stellar 2022 season, he struck out 20.9% of the time but has not gone below 28.1% since. It’s fair to assume that his swing-and-miss issues will translate to MLB, as pitching is far superior, but his raw power is undeniable. FanGraphs grades it at the top of the chart (80).

FanGraphs posted an article with his ZiPS projection for the 2026 season back in 2022. He projects for 30+ home runs through 2030 and 100+ RBIs, with his peak being 137 in 2026 and 2027.

He also got a taste of MLB-caliber competition in the 2023 World Baseball Classic, and fans will be able to see him again this March when the WBC rolls around. In his game against the U.S., he hit a 432-foot home run that led Japan to its win that year.

Counting Yen and Dollars: What Murakami Would Cost

Another important note is Murakami’s age. He is only 25 years old, which makes him slightly less appealing than Japan’s most coveted export last offseason, Roki Sasaki, but it also means he is about to reach his prime as a budding MLB power bat. Age also plays a huge role in contract negotiations when he officially gets posted by the Swallows.

From MLBTradeRumors.com:

“Under Major League Baseball’s international free agency rules, a player is considered an ‘amateur’ if he is under the age of 25. These ‘amateur’ players are subject to the international bonus pool system, wherein teams are hard-capped by annual budgets of roughly $4MM to $9MM.”

This applied to Sasaki, who turned 23 in the 2025 season. He received a $6.5M signing bonus from the Dodgers and is currently pre-arbitration for the upcoming season, scheduled to make $820K according to Spotrac.

Murakami signed a contract with the Swallows for three years that guaranteed he would be posted after his age-24 season, allowing him to have no restrictions on contract negotiations. Look at Yamamoto’s contract situation which made him the highest-paid pitcher in MLB history for reference, though note Murakami is unlikely to receive money of that caliber. Both Seiya Suzuki and Masataka Yoshida received five-year deals, though Murakami is four years younger than they were when they signed, so his contract length could differ.

One final note from MLBTradeRumors.com regarding the posting process:

“Whichever club signs him will also owe a posting fee to the Swallows. The posting fee is calculated as 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, 17.5% of the next $25MM, and 15% of spending above $50MM.”

So, Murakami will cost the Red Sox, or whichever team signs him, more than simply his contract value.

Why Murakami and the Red Sox work

With Alex Bregman officially opting out of his contract on Tuesday, the door has swung open for the Red Sox to maneuver their chess pieces in a way that makes Murakami make sense. Even if the Sox and Bregman find a resolution, it’s unlikely he and Murakami would compete for the same position (cough, cough Rafael Devers).

There is a rich history of Japanese players signing with the Red Sox, and as recently as 2022, the team signed Yoshida to the largest contract for a Japanese position player ever. The teams linked to Murakami are the usual large-market suspects: the Phillies, Yankees, Dodgers, etc. However, the Red Sox would do well to showcase their bright, young talent that Murakami could join, something few teams can match in the current market.

Murakami almost makes too much sense, but I’m unsure if John Henry is willing to go the distance in free agency after offering Bregman $40M per year for simply a Wild Card appearance. Henry has been stingier with his money lately, though to his credit, he will spend when the front office is sold on a particular player, i.e., Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet.

Murakami is a special talent in a pool of average for this year’s free-agent class. His acquisition would be a major win for the Sox should they choose to pursue him. If not, there are other options such as Pete Alonso, Kyle Schwarber, or Josh Naylor that could fill their power-bat void in the lineup. Murakami should be Plan A, though, and if he were to sign here, there’s a real argument the Red Sox should be 2026 AL East favorites.