Bryan Armetta offers up a preview, prediction and pick for Thursday’s ALCS Game 4 between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners.

The Blue Jays saved their season on Wednesday with a resounding 13-4 victory over the Mariners. Now, Toronto will attempt to even up this ALCS series with a Game 4 win. That won’t be easy against a deep, dangerous Seattle roster. What should fans and bettors expect during tonight’s pivotal American League showdown? Below, I’ve laid out my preview, prediction, and best bet for Thursday’s matchup between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners.

Seattle is favored (-127) over Toronto, with the over/under set at 7.5 runs. Let’s break down which side has the edge on DraftKings Sportsbook entering tonight’s contest.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners prediction, preview

After a lengthy hiatus, Max Scherzer is back. Toronto’s veteran hurler was kept off of the team’s ALDS roster last week. That means the right-hander hasn’t taken the mound since September 24th. Over his last six outings, the 41-year-old surrendered 25 earned runs (9.00 ERA). In addition, the three-time Cy Young winner has been much worse on the road (5.91 ERA) than at home (4.68 ERA).

As bad as things have been recently, an extended rest might be beneficial to Scherzer. The future Hall of Famer has surrendered a career-worst 37.1% fly ball percentage this season. That might not hurt him tonight at spacious, hitter-friendly T-Mobile Park. Still, there are plenty of Mariners hitters that can break a game open with one swing. Six different regulars in this lineup have posted a slugging percentage of at least .425.

If Scherzer does find himself in trouble, Toronto’s bullpen is well-rested. The same is true for Seattle, in spite of Wednesday’s blowout loss. Toeing the slab will be Luis Castillo, making his _ appearance of the postseason. In the ALDS vs. Detroit, he tossed six scoreless innings, including a 1.1-inning relief appearance in Game 5. The All-Star will have his hands full tonight attempting to navigate one of baseball’s most dangerous lineups. In two starts against the Jays this season, Castillo coughed up eight earned runs (7.20 ERA).

There was a lot to like last night for Toronto. Perhaps the biggest development for the team was Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s performance. Following a scorching-hot ALDS, the slugger had been held hitless through two games this series. However, the first baseman broke out of his mini-slump in dominant fashion during Game 3. Guerrero Jr. went 4-for-4 at the plate, including a home run and three runs scored. Fellow All-Star George Springer also went deep during his 3-for-6 evening.

Blue Jays vs. Mariners pick, best bet

In spite of Games 1 and 2, Toronto’s bats came alive last night. That’s bad news for Castillo, who has struggled in this spot before. In comparison, nothing about Scherzer’s performance post-September should inspire confidence. In this duel between two veteran starters, expect an offensive outburst on Thursday.

Best Bet: Blue Jays vs. Mariners over 7.5 total runs (-105)