The Cincinnati Reds (24-24) and Pittsburgh Pirates (15-32) begin a 3-game series Monday. First pitch from PNC Park in Pittsburg is set for 6:40 p.m. ET (FS1). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Reds vs. Pirates odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Reds lead 3-0

The Reds head to Pittsburgh following a 3-game sweep of the Guardians in Cleveland, winning 3-1 Sunday as -128 home favorites with he Under (9) cashing. SP Andrew Abbott delivered 5 scoreless innings, striking out 5 and scattering 4 hits and 3 walks. RF Will Benson, who was called up from Triple-A Louisville May 9, led the offense, going 3-for-4 with 2 home runs and 3 RBIs. Benson has homered in 4 consecutive games and is hitting .533 (8-for-15) with 5 HRs and 10 RBIs in the span. Cincy is on a 4-game win streak and a 7-game Under streak.

The Pirates return home after being swept in 3 in Philadelphia by the Phillies, including a tough 1-0 loss Sunday as -109 favorites with the Under (9) hitting. Pittsburgh doubled Philly in hits 6-3 but couldn’t capitalize. Ace Paul Skenes threw 8 strong innings, allowing 1 run on 3 hits while striking out 9 and walking 1. The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 games.

Reds at Pirates projected starters

LHP Nick Lodolo vs. RHP Mitch Keller

Lodolo (3-4, 3.42 ERA) is making his 10th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 7.2 K/9 in 52 2/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 3 ER, 7 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 home loss against the Chicago White Sox Wednesday2025 road stats: 2-2, 1.44 ERA (31 1/3 IP, 5 ER), 0.80 WHIP, 7.8 K/9, 4 BB in 5 startsCareer vs. Pirates: 2-2, 4.30 ERA (23 IP, 11 ER), 1.04 WHIP, 14.5 K/9 in 4 starts; last faced them in 2024

Keller (1-5, 4.15 ERA) is also making his 10th start. He has a 1.33 WHIP, 2.8 BB/9 and 7.4 K/9 in 52 innings.

Last start: Loss, 7 IP, 2 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 8 K in 2-1 road defeat at New York Mets Tuesday2025 home stats: 0-3, 5.33 ERA (27 IP, 16 ER), 1.52 WHIP, 6.3 K/9 in 5 startsCareer vs. Reds: 3-5, 6.06 ERA (81 2/3 IP, 55 ER), 1.64 WHIP, 8.6 K/9 in 17 starts; last faced them in ’24

Win your fantasy baseball league with BaseballHQ.com. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today and start winning!

Reds at Pirates odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 4:35 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Reds -135 (bet $135 to win $100) | Pirates +110 (bet $100 to win $110)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Reds -1.5 (+135) | Pirates +1.5 (-160)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)Reds at Pirates picks and predictionsPrediction

Reds 4, Pirates 2

BET REDS (-135).

It’s hard not to like the Reds as these teams are heading in opposite directions. Cincinnati comes in riding high after its sweep of Cleveland. The Reds swept the Pirates in their first meeting April 11-13 in Cincy, outscoring the Bucs 14-5.

The Pirates, who were just swept on the road, have struggled at home, going 9-13 on the season, including 3-6 in their last 9 games at PNC Park. The Pirates rank 29th out of 30 teams in overall homers (33) and homers at home (14). On the other hand, the Reds have more road wins (11) than Pittsburgh has at home.

Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been a pleasant surprise, sporting a 3.58 team ERA to rank 10th in MLB and fourth in the NL. With the Reds firing on all cylinders and Pittsburgh struggling, this looks like an easy win for CINCINNATI (-135).

PASS.

I don’t mind backing Cincy -1.5 (+135), but I’m going to play it safe personally with the moneyline. However, I can see the Reds winning this game comfortably.

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

This is my favorite bet as all signs point to the Under hitting. The Under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these teams. It’s also hit in 8 of the Reds’ last 10 games and is 8-1-1 in the Pirates’ last 10. With both teams lacking offensive explosiveness, UNDER 8 (-105) is the smart play.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow @DrewPhelps05 on Twitter/X. Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.