ZT breaks down the top player props to consider for ALCS Game 5 between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners.

The American League Championship Series has already been full of twists and turns with plenty of surprises. The road team has won each of the first four games of the series, setting up Game 5 as a pivotal turning point in the series which is tied up, 2-2. These were the top two seeds in the American League, and the great matchup continues Friday, with the first pitch at 6:08 p.m. ET.

Game 5 is a rematch of the starting pitching matchup from Game 1 as Bryce Miller takes the mound for the Mariners against Kevin Gausman for the Blue Jays. Seattle won Game 1, 3-1, and will look to repeat that result before the series heads to Toronto for Game 6 and a potential Game 7. Miller will be backed up in this game by Bryan Woo, who is expected to be available out of the bullpen after missing the beginning of the playoffs with a pec injury.

DraftKings Sportsbook has all your betting needs covered for Game 5. There are literally hundreds of prop bets available, but let’s look at a few of my favorite options coming out of another great matchup in Game 5.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prop Bets for Game 5

Bryce Miller over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-104)

In Game 1, Miller gave up a leadoff dinger to George Springer but then locked in and didn’t give up another run. It was his best start since April, since he had given up multiple runs in 13 straight outings.

He gave up two runs in 4 â…“ innings in his start against the Tigers in the ALDS, and before that, he gave up at least three earned runs in four straight starts and 10 of his previous 12. Miller struggled to a 4-6 in his 18 regular-season starts with a 5.68 ERA and 5.17 FIP. When he faced the Blue Jays in the regular season in Seattle, he went just five innings and gave up seven runs on eight hits and two walks.

The Blue Jays offense was strangely absent in the first two games of this series, but it has come alive in Game 3 and Game 4. Miller caught them at the right time coming off a few days off, but I don’t expect him to duplicate that success on Friday in Game 5.

Seattle could have a quick hook with Miller and go to Woo early on, but I still think the Jays will be able to get to him for at least two runs since he looked so hittable all season long. The rest of Miller’s odds seem to indicate that he won’t pitch deep into the game, since he’s at +700 to record the win. His over/under is set at 11.5 outs recorded.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+154)

Guerrero went 0-for-4 in Game 1 and 0-for-3 with a walk in Game 2, but other than that blip, he has been locked in all postseason long.

Against the Yankees in the ALDS, he went 9-for-17 in four games with five runs scored and nine RBI for a total of 23 HRR (hits, runs, and RBI) and an average of 5.8 HRR per game.

After his two-game slumber, he roared back by going 6-for-11 in the last two games with four runs scored and two RBI for a total of 12 HRR and an average of 6.0 HRR per game.

Even when you include the two zeros from earlier in the series, he is averaging 4.4 HRR per game this postseason. He has five homers in the playoffs this year, and if he goes yard, he can hit this plus-money prop all at once. The advantage to playing his 3+ HRR prop instead of his straight home run props is that this prop offers so many other paths to success.
If the Blue Jays get to Miller and Woo and hit like they have the last two games, Guerrero will likely be right in the middle of the run-scoring action and be able to deliver a win in this player prop. You can also be more or less aggressive with this prop by adjusting it down to 2+ HRR (-122) or cranking up the intensity and payout by playing 4+ HRR (+286) or even 5+ HRR (+496).

Julio Rodriguez 2+ Total Bases (+135)

Rodriguez went a rough 0-for-3 with a walk and three strikeouts in Game 4, but he’ll look to bounce back against Gausman and the Blue Jays in Game 5. He is 8-for-36 (.222) this postseason with a double, three homers and 18 total bases in nine games (2.0 per game). He had 2+ total bases in Game 2 and Game 3 of this series, and he is 5-for-19 in his career against Gausman with a home run.

I included Rodriguez in my top home run props for the night, and I also like him in this plus-money play to deliver at least two total bases.