Dealing with a King: Will the Padres play their cards right?

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What will the San Diego Padres do with pitcher Michael King moving forward?

Heading into this offseason, the San Diego Padres will have many crucial decisions to make.

Among such decisions is what to do with ace starting pitcher Michael King.

King originally came over from the New York Yankees in December of 2023 in the deal that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the Bronx. At the time of acquisition, King was seen as a reliever; however, he told Yankees manager Aaron Boone that he believed he could transition into a starting role, and that is precisely what has happened in San Diego.

Immediately, in the 2024 season, the Padres transitioned King to a starting role. Right away, King showed well and, in 2024, posted a 2.95 ERA in 30 games started for the Padres. It looked, at the time, like King was going to be a vital core piece in San Diego’s rotation for years to come. An extension seemed inevitable.

Fast forward to 2025, and things look a lot different.

In 2025, King struggled to stay healthy, nursing a nerve issue in his arm. Starting only 15 games, he posted an ERA of 3.44; however, this does not tell the whole story. King looked particularly bad after the injuries, and in his final seven starts posted an ERA of 5.63. The lack of performance and struggles on the mound raise questions of longevity for the 30-year-old, who is expected to likely draw offers in excess of $20-25 million annually.

One option for the Friars will be to let King walk and retain Dylan Cease.

Credit: NBC7

While Cease looked horrendous this season, he is a strikeout merchant with nasty stuff. The likelihood he regresses again in 2026 seems less than the likelihood that he taps back into his former magic. Additionally, the Padres may be able to get Cease back on a bargain or even a one-year prove-it deal, given his struggles in 2025.

With Joe Musgrove, Nick Pivetta, and Yu Darvish coming back, and talks of stretching out the likes of Adrian Morejon, David Morgan, Sean Reynolds, or Mason Miller, the Friars’ rotation could certainly be pieced together nicely even without King.

Michael King controls the decision to pick up his $15 million mutual option, but this is not necessarily expected.

One argument is that King should certainly pick up the option. After what might be considered a down season, King is less likely to garner as much money as he would have at the beginning of the season. King could, hypothetically, take the option, in essence betting on himself to pitch better in 2026, and potentially then receive much better offers next winter as a free agent.

This makes a lot of sense for both King and the Padres. The $15 million option would be a nice medium for the Padres, giving them guaranteed at least one more year of King, and allowing the team another year to figure out whether they want to retain him long term or find potential replacements. Such an option would also allow the Padres to retain King as a possible trade piece if things go wrong in 2026.

The situation becomes more foggy given the Padres’ managerial situation.

Distant clouded rumors of a potential A.J. Preller departure only further complicate things. What a new manager would want is unclear at the moment, given Mike Shildt’s retirement. Moreover, it is unknown how a new GM would feel, but it is clear that A.J. Preller is a fan of King, for the right price.

The reality is that it seems unclear whether paying Michael King nearly $25 million a year would be a wise decision.

Last offseason, A.J. Preller brought in Nick Pivetta for much less, and Pivetta received just $1 million last season. While this will increase moving forward, there may be many better options for the Padres if they shop around. 

Perhaps if King decides to walk away, someone like Shota Imanaga may be an option for the Friars.

Ultimately, the key question isn’t whether King would be an excellent starting pitcher for the Padres moving forward, as his talent is evident and established. Instead, it’s about whether committing another $20–$30 million annually to a pitcher with just one truly consistent season justifies the financial risk, especially with the team’s existing contract obligations.

Michael King has shown impressive sharpness on the mound, but if he opts out of his mutual option, the Padres might be better off exploring other options this offseason to bolster their rotation. 

Billy has spent a majority of his life following San Diego sports and worked in San Diego for many years. Now residing in Newport Beach he recently obtained his Juris Doctorate degree from Chapman University and works as a law clerk. Billy enjoys supporting the Padres and SDFC from Orange County and making the drive down for big games. He is passionate about analytics and writing about sports.

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