ZT breaks down the top player props to consider for ALCS Game 6 between the Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays.
This epic American League Championship Series continues on Sunday night as the Mariners take their 3-2 lead to Toronto and look to move on to the World Series with a win over the Blue Jays.
The Jays will look to avoid elimination by giving the ball to Trey Yesavage, who struggled in Game 2 but was very impressive against the Yankees in the ALDS and his few starts in the regular season. He’ll likely be opposed by Seattle’s Game 2 starter Logan Gilbert, but the Mariners have yet to make an official announcement.
As always, DraftKings Sportsbook has all your betting needs covered for Game 6. There are literally hundreds of prop bets available, but let’s look at a few of my favorite options coming out of another great matchup in Game 6.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays Prop Bets for Game 6
Trey Yesavage 2+ walks allowed (+110)
Yesavage had some control issues in Game 2, potentially related to nerves in his first postseason start. He handed out three walks in his four innings in that outing, including an intentional walk to Cal Raleigh before departing in the fifth. He also hit a batter.
While he definitely has great stuff, control has been an issue for him all season. He had multiple walks (going over this prop) in each of his regular season starts, issuing seven free passes in 17 innings. He didn’t have any walks in his ALDS game against the Yankees, but other than that he’s been prone to giving up multiple walks. Even in the minors, Yesavage issued 11 walks in his six appearances at Triple-A over just 17 ⅓ innings. He had a 15.3% walk rate in Triple-A and an 11.3% walk rate in his three regular-season outings.
If Yesavage struggles early and doesn’t last long, I think control will be the primary problem. If he hangs around and goes deep into the game, that gives him more batters faced and more potential walks as well. Either way, I think it’s likely he gives out at least two walks, going over this plus-money prop on Sunday night.
Josh Naylor over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (+107)
Another plus-money play I like a lot on Sunday is Naylor’s HRR (hits, runs, and RBI) over. The 28-year-old lefty finished the regular season on an impressive run and has found his stride in the postseason as well after a few quiet games early against the Tigers. In the regular season, Naylor fueled the Mariners’ September surge by going 27-for-68 (.397) over his last 19 games with four home runs, 16 runs scored, 19 RBI, and a 1.079 OPS over that stretch. He had 62 HRR in those 19 games for an average of 3.3 HRR per contest.
In the playoffs, he went 0-for-13 in the first three games against the Tigers but then snapped back into form. He has gone a scalding 13-for-27 (.481) in his seven games since then, with two doubles, two homers, six runs scored and three RBI. In those seven games, he has averaged 3.1 HRR per game. He has multiple HRR in five of those seven games, including in three of the last four games in this series. In Game 2 against Yesavage, he singled twice, stole a base and struck out. He homered against the bullpen in that game and finished with six HRR.
As a more aggressive play, you can use Naylor to get 3+ HRR (+209), but I feel more confident that he’ll find a way to collect two hits, or one hit along with a run scored or RBI.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2+ Total Bases (+110)
Guerrero has been outstanding for the Blue Jays this postseason, and the biggest question in Game 6 is if the Mariners will give him anything to hit. In Game 5, he doubled in the first inning and was intentionally walked in two of his three remaining plate appearances. If you want to hedge against that, Guerrero’s walks prop will potentially be a good way to do that (no line at the time of writing).
In the playoffs, Vlad has an impressive 34 total bases in his nine games (3.8 per game). He has at least 2+ total bases in each of the last three games in this series, going 7-for-11 (.636) with three walks and an impressive 16 total bases in those three contests.
Against expected starter Logan Gilbert, Guerrero is 6-for-17 (.353) in his career with two walks, two doubles and two homers. Given those two home runs and how hot he has been this postseason, I totally get playing Guerrero to go yard at +284, but even if he doesn’t get a home run, I think he’ll find a way to get two total bases.