The Seattle Mariners had hoped it wouldn’t come to this, but the American League Championship Series has shifted back to Toronto.

The M’s fell short of capitalizing on the 2-0 series lead they brought back to Seattle, which had afforded them a chance to close out the series on their home field. But they are still taking a 3-2 lead back Rogers Centre for Game 6 and a potential Game 7.

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Beating Toronto on its home field once more won’t be an easy task, but there’s plenty of reason to believe the Mariners will get it done and reach their first-ever World Series.

Home-field disadvantage

Home-field advantage hasn’t been much of a thing when the Mariners and Blue Jays have faced off this year. Seattle took two of three when the teams met in Toronto back in April, and the Blue Jays pulled out a three-game sweep during their May trip to Seattle. Then, the Mariners took the first two games of the ALCS in Toronto, followed by the Blue Jays taking the first two of three in the Pacific Northwest. So there’s some precedence set that being the home team may not be the best team to be when these squads meet.

Furthermore, the Mariners’ pitching has performed very well at Rogers Centre this year, and Toronto’s high-contact offense seems to be better suited to hit in the colder October weather at T-Mobile Park than the Mariners’ homer-reliant group is.

Seattle pitching has held Toronto to three or fewer runs in all five games at Rogers Centre this year, including the postseason. The Blue Jays scored only one run twice in those meetings. It’s quite a disparity from what has transpired at T-Mobile Park, where the Blue Jays scored at least six runs and recorded 10 or more hits in five of six games.

As for the Mariners’ offense, it has scored more than four runs only once in a game in its home park this postseason. It seems the M’s could benefit from getting away from the heavy October air of Seattle and to an environment where the ball should carry more. The Blue Jays will of course also receive the benefit of a more hitter-friendly environment, but their offense isn’t as dependent on leaving the yard as Seattle’s is. Plus, there’s no hitter more dangerous in Rogers Centre than Cal Raleigh.

Another look

One of the unique aspects of this Mariners-Blue Jays series was that these teams hadn’t met since Mother’s Day weekend, and both rosters have gone through plenty of change over the past five months. This rings especially true for Toronto’s pitching staff. Of the four starters Seattle has faced in the ALCS, only one (Kevin Gausman) was on Toronto’s active roster for either of the two regular-season series between the clubs.

That gave Toronto a somewhat unique advantage of being able to use three starters that the Mariners hadn’t seen at all this year – or in the case of Game 2 starter Trey Yesavage, ever. It didn’t prove to be much of an advantage for Yesavage, but for established veterans like Shane Bieber and Max Scherzer, it certainly didn’t hurt that the Mariners’ lineup hadn’t faced either in more than a year.

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays were getting their third look at Luis Castillo and second at Logan Gilbert when they got to each early during their ALCS starts. They were also getting a second look at Game 1 winner Bryce Miller, but that may not have carried as much weight since Miller was pitching through elbow issues when he faced Toronto in May.

In Game 6 and a potential Game 7, the Blue Jays won’t have the luxury of giving the Mariners a look they haven’t seen this season. It may end up meaning nothing in the end, but it is a factor that can offer a glimmer of hope, even if it’s a minute one.

The Mariners will meet the Blue Jays in Toronto for Game 6 of the ALCS at 5:03 p.m. Sunday. Hear the Mariners Radio Network call on the Seattle Sports app and Seattle Sports 710 AM beginning with pregame coverage at 3 p.m.

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