Baseball, at its best, is a game of tension and release. A series of gradual builds followed by thundering crescendoes. Those pockets of anticipation — the idea that any pitch could be the pitch — that’s what enables the magic.
Never is that dynamic truer than in a Game 7, in which the stakes are magnificently high, with two teams’ entire seasons hanging in the balance. That’s what we have Monday in the ALCS between the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners.
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Both of these fan bases have endured decades of woe: The Jays haven’t been in a Fall Classic since 1993, while the Mariners are the only team to never play in a World Series. For many ball-loving souls, that ends tonight. Just nine innings stand between one team and a trip to the World Series.
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How did we get here?
This series, thus far, can be divided into two acts.
Act 1 saw the Seattle Mariners storm into Toronto for Games 1 and 2, comfortably dispatching the Jays on their home field. The opener was a tighter affair, with Mariners starter Bryce Miller delivering a gem on short rest. His six strong innings, a game-tying solo shot from Cal Raleigh and two more clutch October RBI from Jorge Polanco gave the M’s a 3-1 lead. Game 2 was even more definitive. A trio of three-run homers from Julio Rodríguez, Polanco and Josh Naylor propelled Seattle to an easy 10-3 win.
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But when the series went west, everything changed in Act 2. The Jays erupted with 13 runs and five homers for a rousing blowout win in Game 3. That offensive explosion continued in Game 4, as Toronto plated eight behind a throwback start from future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer.
Game 5 was much closer, with Toronto carrying a slim 2-1 lead into the eighth before a bullpen disaster class coughed up five in the frame on a Cal Raleigh solo crank and perhaps the most memorable swing in Mariners franchise history. That Eugenio Suarez grand slam gave Seattle a crucial victory but didn’t quite reorient the energy of the series. Because Toronto rolled to an easy Game 6 win back at home, thanks to yet another long ball from Vladimir Guerrero Jr., his sixth of these playoffs.
This is all relevant because outside of Seattle’s wonderland eighth inning in Game 5, the Jays have seemed in thorough command of this series for the past four games. They have outhit, outpitched and outplayed the Mariners at basically every turn. The postseason is often an exercise in momentum, and there’s no doubt the Jays have the edge in that department.
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Game 7 pitching matchup
The starting pitching matchup on Monday will be a rematch of Game 3: George Kirby for Seattle against Shane Bieber for Toronto. Kirby was historically abysmal in that one, cruising through two before imploding in the third. He finished the day having surrendered eight earned runs, tying a postseason record for the most earned runs allowed by a starting pitcher in a single game. Bieber settled in nicely after Julio Rodríguez popped him for a two-run blast in the first, working six strong innings to guide the Jays to a series-shifting win.
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How Kirby adjusts after getting bludgeoned his latest time out is a massive storyline to watch. The 27-year-old righty got a bit too cute in that disastrous third inning last week, trying and failing to locate his fastball up and in to left-handed hitters. That strategy worked out awfully, with Andrés Giménez, Nathan Lukes and Daulton Varsho all taking advantage.
But given the stakes of this Game 7, both Kirby and Bieber figure to be on short leashes. Toronto should have Game 5 starter Kevin Gausman and Game 4 starter Max Scherzer available out of the bullpen to some extent. But the Mariners definitely have the edge in terms of starters available in relief, with Game 5 starter Bryce Miller, Game 4 starter Luis Castillo and All-Star Bryan Woo all willing and able. Woo is the wild card here. He was Seattle’s best starter during the regular season, but a pectoral injury late suffered in September kept him sidelined until Game 4 of this series, limiting him to two innings in relief. How Woo looks and how long he can work if he looks good should be a real X-factor in this one.
Seattle seems to hold a small edge in terms of bullpen usage as well. The Jays opted to use closer Jeff Hoffman for six outs to close out Game 6. He’ll still be available Monday, but he obviously won’t be at full strength after throwing a season-high 35 pitches on Sunday. Seattle didn’t deploy its closer, Andrew Muñoz, in Game 6, nor did the Mariners call upon southpaw fireman Gabe Speier.
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Other things to watch
Vlad Jr.: What a thing, what a beautiful, beautiful thing. The 26-year-old Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been preposterously famous for a long while. His name alone created outrageous expectations, the shadow of his Hall of Fame father putting little Vlad in the limelight as a teenager.
But while Guerrero has been a borderline superstar for five years now, this October is his coming out party as a generational force. Toronto’s first baseman is hitting .462/.532./1.000 in the playoffs, with a 1.532 OPS, the second-highest single-postseason mark in MLB history (min. 40 plate appearances). How the Mariners choose to attack Vlad — or not attack Vlad — could define this series’ defining game. Does Seattle ensure that no pitcher faces Vlad twice? Do they pitch around him? Do they just walk him intentionally? Nobody on planet Earth is more locked in right now than this guy.
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Seattle’s defense: Game 6 was the first time all season that Seattle’s typically sturdy defense made three errors in one game. Two of those flubs — Eugenio Suarez’s second-inning bobble and Cal Raleigh’s seventh-inning throwing error — were uncharacteristic and led to runs. The Mariners simply have to play clean in a Game 7.
Ernie Clement: Here is a batting average leaderboard for this postseason among players with at least 20 plate appearances.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — .462
Toronto’s frisky utility infielder and charismatic glue guy is a walking base hit right now. The Jays have been hitting him sixth or lower for the entire playoffs. Do they mess with that strategy now? Probably not, but Clement has been a game-changer for Toronto all October long.