Game 7 of the ALCS will take place on Monday, Oct. 20 with the Seattle Mariners visiting the Toronto Blue Jays. The Mariners are attempting to reach the World Series for the first time in franchise history while the Blue Jays attempt to get back to the Fall Classic for the first time since 1993. The road team won the first four games of this series but the home side has taken the last two contests. The Blue Jays are -131 favorites in the latest SportsLine consensus odds, while the Mariners are +109 underdogs. The total sits at 7.5. For the latest Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 7 projections and expert picks, head over to SportsLine.
If you’re interested in MLB betting, you need to see what Angelo Magliocca, also known as “Amags,” has lined up for Friday’s two games. Magliocca, a regular contributor to The Early Edge and CBS Sports HQ, is a seasoned MLB handicapper up 123.5 units over the last three MLB seasons. Here’s a look at his picks for Friday.
Best MLB bets for Mariners vs. Blue JaysALCS Game 7
Game 7, the biggest game in Mariners history, takes place Monday in Toronto, with a trip to the World Series on the line! At this price, I’m on the Mariners to win and although George Kirby performed poorly against this lineup last time, I don’t expect they stick with him long if trouble arises again. It should be all hands on deck from the Seattle bullpen and Toronto is in the same spot behind Shane Bieber. The Jays used their closer for 35 pitches (2 innings) last night so we’ll see how things break out late in the game but in the end, I trust the M’s bullpen more.
The Mariners had Bieber on the ropes in the first inning of his start in Game 3 but pitching with a big lead helped him get deeper into the game after the Jays scored five runs in the third inning. The righty allowed hard contact but avoided too much damage in that start, and I think this time around will be tougher to get as lucky. There were 14 batted balls off Bieber last time out and five of those were “hard hit” classified as having over 95 mph exit velocity. Three of those five balls made outs, yet the expected batting average on each was .270, .370 and .450 respectively. All that is to say Bieber got a bit lucky in that start and pairing luck with the big lead allowed him to have a quality start, going six full innings and allowing just the two early runs that came on the home run. I’m betting on Bieber having a tougher time tonight, as I expect some of that good luck to regress back the other way and if the M’s get into the Jays bullpen early, that could spell real trouble for Toronto.
Kirby was hurt big time in the third inning last time out, with multiple balls hit hard by Guerrero Jr and the nine hitter, Andrés Giménez. I would anticipate Kirby makes some adjustments here but at the same time, Mariners manager Dan Wilson is not one to allow his starter to continue when in trouble. The only reason Kirby remained in the game for the eight-run beating last time out was because the game got out of hand quickly and the M’s sort of punted the early part of the game once they got down by 5+ runs. I would expect Kirby is gone in a flash if he gets into trouble so my lean here is both pitchers to record less than their outs totals. Bieber is set at 12.5 and Kirby is at 11.5, meaning Bieber will need to pitch into the fifth inning and record at least one out, while Kirby just had to finish four innings here. With it being Game 7, I would not be surprised to see the bullpens deployed well before either pitcher reaches their outs totals but these prop markets are such high variance at this point in the year I don’t feel comfortable making an official play on either. It would be under or nothing for me here though in the outs market and I’ll pass on betting the strikeouts for either pitcher too.
I played both of these props last night and we missed on both but what happened? The Mariners allowed Guerrero Jr. to wreck the game; the exact thing I said they could not do and why they should be walking him. He went on to have a 2-for-4 night, with a home run and five total bases, hitting a ball with 116 mph exit velocity in the process. Funny enough, that ball was recorded for an out, while the home run was hit at nearly 103 mph, showcasing just how hot Guerrero Jr. is running right now. He had a track record of success hitting the ball hard against Logan Gilbert, with 13 of 15 balls hit “hard” against Gilbert in his career, but the story is similar against Kirby. Nine of the last ten balls hit by Guerrero Jr. against Kirby have been “hard hit” with his at bats in game three resulting in a single, double and home run, all of which hit at over 102 mph. We’ll take another shot here tonight on the Mariners to pitch around Guerrero Jr. or simply put him on base, albeit at worse odds than we had yesterday. The main angle here is an intentional walk since Kirby usually has solid control.
The price on taking Guerrero Jr. for 2+ hits + runs + RBI is out of my range but Raleigh is well within reason and playing for the away team here. Being a switch hitter, he matches up well against righties or lefties out of the bullpen and we get the full nine at-bats here. Raleigh essentially saved the Mariners’ season in Game 5 and I think he comes up big once again here on Monday. Julio Rogriguez is also in play here at a similar price after hitting a home run against Bieber in his last start.