Matt Wallner may have been the least of the Twins’ issues in 2025, but the step back he took offensively didn’t help the floundering lineup. The offense needs a complete overhaul, with very few players locked into the plans moving forward. What do the decision-makers do with Matt Wallner?
Wallner’s struggles in 2025 were frustrating to watch. After a strong season-plus to begin his career, showing that he’s more than an all-or-nothing slugger, he regressed to being more of a three-true-outcomes player last season. Despite a career-low strikeout rate, he hit .202 while slugging 22 homers. Though he still walked nearly 12% of the time, the contact he made was not very valuable, unless the ball was going over the fence.
After two strong seasons of performing in the clutch, Wallner’s Win Probability Added went negative in 2025. He took a step back in his performance against fastballs. His hard-hit and barrel rates declined. After posting strong batting averages on balls in play throughout his professional career, his .228 mark in 2025 was well below average. A flatter swing led to both more ground balls and more high fly balls and pop-ups. The Twins clearly lost faith in him, as he was moved down in the lineup, and he never put together any consistent stretch at the plate.
With the lineup in need of a complete overhaul, it’s hard to say what the Twins will do to try to turn things around in 2026. Trevor Larnach is an obvious candidate to be shipped out, because of his lack of development and higher price tag. The team also acquired James Outman and Alan Roden as fellow left-handed-hitting, MLB-ready outfielders. They acquired left-handed hitting corner outfielder Henry Mendez, who will be on the 40-man roster in 2026. Emmanuel Rodriguez and Walker Jenkins will begin the season in Triple-A St. Paul. The team’s logjam of this player type opens the door for several potential moves.
A case can be made to trade Wallner. Defense has never been a strong suit for him, but especially with the number of outfielders on the way, he likely won’t be long for everyday playing time. He may be a long-term DH in the Twins’ eyes, and if another team views him as a usable outfielder, he may have enough value for the Twins to work out a deal.
The team is also likely considering the possibility that Wallner has been found out by opposing teams. He was repeatedly overpowered at the plate in 2025, and if the Twins don’t think this is fixable, they may learn from past mistakes and decide to trade him before his value bottoms out, as it has for so many others in the organization in the last year.
That being said, Wallner’s “down year” still included a .776 OPS, good for 14% above league average. The way he got there may have been unsightly, but for a team so devoid of offensive standouts, it seems counterproductive to trade away one of their few above-average hitters. Regarding his defense, they are also lacking a regular DH, meaning Wallner could fill this role regularly while still getting some time in the outfield. If he returns to his pre-2025 production, Wallner would be one of the best designated hitters in the American League. He’s also still making the league minimum (or some amount close to it) in 2026.
It’s hard to see Wallner as an “off-limits” player this offseason, and if this front office can get what they consider good value in trade for just about any player, they’ve shown they’ll pull the trigger. While this process sounds good in theory, it’s worth questioning whether this regime can be trusted in evaluating talent at this point.
For a Twins offense that largely sank the team in 2025, one could argue that they would be wiser to target another player in a situation like Wallner’s, rather than trade one away. After an .877 OPS in 2023 and .894 in 2024, his big step backward still left him as an above-average hitter. He’s not without red flags or question marks, but some of his struggles in 2025 were complete aberrations in the context of his track record. If he can return to form in 2026, he would be one of the best hitters in a lineup that desperately needs him. The team should be acquiring and holding onto offensive upside, not trading it away.
This Twins front office has a history of being unpredictable, making it a real possibility this winter to trade away yet another productive local Minnesotan. The Twins may be right to consider doing so, but with the team’s lack of recent success both on the field and in evaluating their own roster, it’s hard to have faith in that decision if they decide to ship Wallner out this winter.
What should the Twins do with Matt Wallner after a down season? Can they keep him and use him as a DH? Should they look to deal him before his declining stock hits zero? Let us know below!