Will Detroit Tigers ace Tarik Skubal win back-to-back Cy Young Awards?
Nick Pollack, founder of “Pitcher List,” shares his insights on “Days of Roar” on Tarik Skubal vs. Garrett Crochet in 2025 AL Cy Young race.
Left-handed ace Tarik Skubal is in line to win his second straight American League Cy Young Award as he prepares to play the 2026 season with the Detroit Tigers.
The first part of that sentence is almost certain to happen, with Skubal the overwhelming favorite to land the award. But the second part might need a revision at some point during the offseason.
That all depends on what the Tigers decide to do with Skubal, their best player, entering his final season under team control in 2026.
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There are a few ways the Tigers (or Skubal) could choose to proceed, with options ranging from the team trading its ace this winter to signing him to the richest deal ever handed to a pitcher to no deal getting done.
Here’s everything you need to know about the Tigers’ Skubal situation entering the 2025-26 MLB offseason.
Tarik Skubal contract
Skubal is entering his third year of arbitration with the Tigers, marking his last year under team control before he can become a free agent.
In 2025, Skubal made $10.15 million coming off his Cy Young-winning season, and this year he’s expected to nearly double that mark with an estimated $17.8 million salary for the 2026 season (per calculations from MLB Trade Rumors).
Tarik Skubal free agency: When can he leave Tigers?
Skubal can become a free agent after the 2026 season (six years of MLB service), which means the Tigers have exclusive negotiating rights with him for 12 more months.
However, if Skubal and the Tigers can’t come to a contract agreement before then, he will be able to sign with any MLB team at the conclusion of the 2026 World Series. (Free agency typically starts five days after the World Series ends.)
Who is Tarik Skubal’s agent?
Skubal’s agent is Scott Boras, the most widely-recognized player agent in baseball. Boras’ clientale includes superstars Juan Soto, Bryce Harper, Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell.
Boras is known for negotiating some of the biggest deals in MLB history, including Soto’s 15-year, $765 million mega contract with the Mets last winter, the biggest deal by total value in the history of the sport.
Boras is known for having clients wait until hitting free agency to sign a contract, bad news for Tigers fans hoping Skubal signs a contract before the 2026 season ends.
Tarik Skubal and Tigers contract talks are far apart
News emerged last week about how far apart the Tigers and Boras are in valuing Skubal, as of a year ago.
After the 2024 season in which Skubal won the AL pitching Triple Crownand was named AL Cy Young, the Tigers offered a “noncompetitive” four-year contract for less than $100 million, Free Press sports writer Evan Petzold wrote last week. The deal would have spanned 2025-28, buying out Skubal’s final two years of arbitration. Skubal rejected the offer.
The gap between what Skubal’s representation believes he will be worth on the open market ($400 million) and what the Tigers offered is roughly a $300 million difference.
How much money is Tarik Skubal asking for?
Skubal has not gone on the record with any contract demands, but there have been a few hints as to how big a potential Skubal contract could be.
The current record for largest contract ever handed to a pitcher (by total value) is held by Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Yoshinobu Yamamoto, who signed a 12-year, $325 million contract with the Dodgers ahead of the 2024 season. Experts currently expect the total value of Skubal’s contract to exceed that number.
A $400 million contract for Skubal seems realistic, especially after what will be a second straight Cy Young-winning season. When presented with the idea of a 10-year, $425 million contract on a June 11 episode of Barstool’s “Pardon My Take” podcast, Skubal smiled and responded, “That sounds good.”
Skubal on Oct. 10, when asked if he plans to meet with the Tigers’ front office to discuss his future: “My job is to play. That’s not my job — to do anything other than play. Those questions should be asked toward the front office and the people that make those decisions, but my job is to go out there and play.”
Can the Tigers afford Tarik Skubal?
Theoretically, yes.
MLB does not impose a salary cap on teams, which means teams are not limited on what they can spend on players — though the league does impose a luxury tax on teams whose payrolls exceed certain thresholds. Detroit’s final estimated payroll from 2025, according to FanGraphs, was $175.4 million — far below the first luxury tax threshold of $241 million.
If Skubal’s contract averages $45 millon per season, a little higher than the record average annual value of $43.3 million handed to Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, that would still likely keep the Tigers under the first luxury tax threshold in 2026. However, the Tigers have never run an Opening Day payroll above $200 million, per Cot’s Contracts.
What has Scott Harris said about Tarik Skubal contract?
Harris, the Tigers’ president of baseball operations, said Oct. 13 at his end-of-season news conference owner Christopher Ilitch would financially support a Skubal extension, though no number was prefaced in the question.
“Chris has been supportive with everything we do,” Harris said. “I know that Chris is going to support us with everything we need, both in terms of player payroll but also not in player payroll … that can help us bring a World Series here. I have no concerns about that.”
What has Tigers owner said about Tarik Skubal contract?
Ilitch was asked Oct. 2 during the playoffs if he is prioritizing an extension to keep Skubal with the Tigers beyond 2026.
“We’re in 2025 right now,” he said. “We’re just going to focus on the playoffs and really just focus on the game in front of us.”
Will the Tigers trade Tarik Skubal?
That remains to be seen.
Harris was asked Oct. 13 about Skubal’s status and said he couldn’t comment on any trade speculation. But that hasn’t stopped the speculation from stopping.
If the Tigers decide to trade Skubal, they have a couple of options for the timing of the trade. Trading Skubal in the offseason can give the Tigers a clearer picture of what their pitching staff will look like in 2026, while dealing him closer to the 2026 trade deadline might bring back a bigger trade package as teams would theoretically be more motivated to acquire Skubal.
But that’s a potentially risky strategy, as any injury or underperformance makes Skubal a less valuable trade piece.
Alternatively, the Tigers could choose to keep him throughout the 2026 season, especially if they believe he would be an important piece to a World Series contender.
Tarik Skubal trade return: What could Tigers get?
There are two recent trades that could serve as a good measuring stick for a potential Skubal trade package, though rarely does a pitcher of Skubal’s caliber get dealt in his prime.
The Chicago White Sox traded lefty ace Garrett Crochet last December to the Boston Red Sox in exchange for four of Boston’s top-15 prospects, including catcher Kyle Teel (No. 25 overall prospect per MLB Pipeline) and outfielder Braden Montgomery (No. 54 overall). Crochet then signed a six-year, $170 million extension.
However, there are a few factors that might not make this an equivalent package: Crochet was 25 at the time of the trade — Skubal will be 29 in Novmeber — had an extra year of team control and was traded from a team much further away from playoff contention than the Tigers.
Still, Skubal is arguably the game’s best pitcher, and might command a stronger package than Crochet — if the Tigers choose to look at trade packages.
In February 2024, the Milwaukee Brewers traded 29-year-old ace Corbin Burnes, the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, with one season left before free agency to the Baltimore Orioles for third baseman Joey Ortiz, left-hander DL Hall and the No. 34 overall pick in the 2024 draft (used to select Tennessee first baseman Blake Burke).
The Brewers, without Burnes, won the NL Central in 2024 and 2025.
Tarik Skubal trade: Which teams to watch?
Look no further than some big market teams, including the New York Mets, New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Boston Red Sox and Philadelphia Phillies.
Tarik Skubal stats
Here are Skubal’s stats from 2025 in 31 regular-season starts.
13-6, 2.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 195â…“ innings, 141 hits, 33 walks, 241 strikeouts, 7.3 K/BB.
Here are Skubal’s career stats in the regular season from 2020-25 over 137 games (134 starts).
54-37, 3.08 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 766â…” innings, 614 hits, 172 walks, 889 strikeouts, 5.2 K/BB.
Here are Skubal’s postseason stats from six starts over two playoff runs from 2024-25.
2-1, 2.04 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 39â…” innings, 23 hits, six walks, 56 strikeouts, 9.3 K/BB.Tigers fans say want Tarik Skubal traded this offseason
Three days after the Tigers’ season ended in Seattle, we published a poll asking what the Tigers should do with Skubal this winter.
We got 3,802 votes in the two days the poll was open on freep.com. There were three possible answers allowed and one clear winner.
Trade Skubal this offseason before he leaves for nothing: 61.52% (2,339 votes).Keep Skubal and hope to re-sign him after the 2026 season: (26.22% or 997 votes).Play it out to the 2026 trade deadline: (12.26% or 466 votes).
You can count our longtime Free Press sports columnist Shawn Windsor among the minority arguing to keep him for a run at a 2026 World Series.
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You can reach Christian at cromo@freepress.com.