The latest (and last?) sequel of the Mission: Impossible franchise opens in theaters nationwide this Friday and as a fan of the series I thought it would be fun (for me, anyway) to look at the franchise through the lens of the San Francisco Giants the rest of the week. If you doubt a link between the Giants and this series of movies, well, Tom Cruise was at Game 2 of the 2021 NLDS…
And if you doubt there’s a link between pop culture and our favorite baseball team, well, first of all, how can you not be superstitious about baseball? That’s part of what makes it fun! Second of all, you are wrong because there is a link. The Giants just experienced the connection last decade, when Taylor Swift’s gold records led to World Series wins. Star-studded releases have impacted the Giants’ chances before.
So, with the connection firmly established in facts, let’s take a look at the downside of Tom Cruise hopping between biplanes later this week.
The Giants have 50.2% playoffs odds as of this morning. They’ve got stellar pitching, particularly in the bullpen, and — at least on paper — an average lineup. Their path to the postseason isn’t without obstacles, but they’re looking pretty good right now. Is Tom Cruise about to screw it all up? Will his on-screen death wish kill the 2025 Giants’ playoff chances?
If you look at the film release years and how the Giants did, it paints a grim picture:
Mission: Impossible (1996) | Director: Brian de Palma | Giants: 68-94
Capsule review of the film: A lot of people think this is still the best one. It’s very good and establishes the tone, it’s well made and very 90s, but it’s also kinda quaint compared to future installments. My rank: 3rd out of 7 released.
Admittedly, coming off the 1993 Dustiny Year, the Giants wandered into the wilderness and stayed there until 1999, so maybe this was about talent, drafting & development more than it was about some movie. But I don’t think so! This Mission: Impossible-Giants connection is pretty relevant and curse-defining.
That 1996 team got off to a 24-20 start. That was their record on the eve of this film’s release. From May 22nd through the end of the season, the Giants went 44-74. Now, the Giants weren’t going to be a playoff team, most likely — not with the single Wild Card format — but, they were on a Wild Card pace until Tom Cruise dropped down from that ceiling in CIA headquarters.
Mission: Impossible II (2000) | Director: John Woo | Giants: 97-65
Capsule review: This is the first one I saw in a theater and it was the first time I’d ever seen a John Woo film. Anyway, that’s not what I remember most about this movie. What I remember is that the screen story was generated by two Star Trek: The Next Generation writers (Brannon Braga & Ronald D. Moore) and Thandie Newton’s story about Tom Cruise developing a zit while shooting a scene. Also, Limp Bizkit. My rank: 7th of 7 released.
Well, okay, this is either the exception that proves the rule/curse or it breaks the premise of the piece straightaway. This movie wound up being the highest grossing movie of 2000. Guess what? The Giants wound up having the best offense in baseball in 2000 and it amounted to exactly nothing as they were knocked out of the playoffs pretty easily by Atlanta. Still… the Giants won their division handily. Can I maintain this tenuous connection?
Yes, I can. It’s all about the vibe shift. 2000 was the inaugural year of Pacific Bell Park. It took the team a bit to figure out how to play there and once they did, they took off. M:I-II is unlike all the other Missions because of the vibe shift John Woo brought to the project. Unfortunately, neither vibe shift stuck and both franchises would find new identities.
Mission: Impossible III (2006) | Director: J.J. Abrams | Giants: 76-85
Capsule review: J.J. Abrams’s feature film debut is an expensive episode of his hit TV show Alias with Tom Cruise starring instead of Jennifer Garner. I was underwhelmed by this one but it made the series a little more realistic after Woo had put the franchise on the wings of a dove. It does have Keri Russell in it, though, and Philip Seymour Hoffman is a fantastic villain. Easily the best heavy in the series. My rank: 6th out of 7.
The Giants were 14-14 before this film’s release, 62-71 after it. Now, did the 2006 Giants have an Aaron Rowand’s chance against a slider to make the playoffs? Absolutely not. Brian Sabean shoved 41-year old Steve Finley in the faces of 3.3 million fans and told them to be grateful. Still, it’s interesting to see the connections between the two franchises even here.
While M:I-II made a lot of money, it was still viewed as a setback and Abrams was brought in to sort of right the ship. He basically did that, albeit unspectacularly, and with these 2006 Giants, you had Matt Cain’s first full season (13-12, 2.5 bWAR) and the debuts of Jonathan Sanchez and Brian Wilson. The seeds were being planted, just as Abrams’ involvement with the franchise (first as director, then as producer) is what boosted it into the stratosphere…
Ghost Protocol | Director: Brad Bird | 2011 Giants: 86-76
Capsule review: My rank: 5th out 7. This movie is what cemented the formula by instilling in Tom Cruise the need to die on screen. Brad Bird directs his first live action feature and this is the first time the IMAX format gets brought into the series and it all kinda works but at the same time falls a little flat. Former site contributor Bill Hanstock encapsulates it best:
Who could forget this season? Coming off that first San Francisco championship. The gold-numbered uniforms. Suffocating pitching. But then, Scott Cousins appeared. Then, Carlos Beltran got hurt. And as exciting as it was, it came up short and felt like a disappointment. Just as the Mission franchise found its footing, the Giants seemingly lost theirs.
Now, here’s where it gets really tricky. This movie came out in December 2011… so how could it have possibly impacted that season? And, the Giants won the 2012 World Series — if there’s a connection or a curse, wouldn’t it more reasonably be attached to that year? Well, maybe, but consider this:
The movie began principal photography in October 2010, after the Giants were in the postseason that year. It wrapped filming in March 2011. Specifically, March 19, 2011. Here are two headlines from that day:
Ross, Posey, Huff go yard in Giants’ 3-1 win over K.C.
San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson’s status for opener in question
Wilson was never the same after 2010, but he was an All-Star in 2011; but, he didn’t finish the season out. Ross was between replacement level and average in his one season with the Giants, Posey got knocked out early, and Huff & Zito were both so bad they lost their jobs. Maybe it’s allllllllllllllllll a coincidence!
Rogue Nation (2015) | Director: Christopher McQuarrie | Giants: 84-78
Capsule review: A breezy two hours that kicks off with Tom Cruise hanging on to the side of an airplane. Rebecca Ferguson gets dropped into the series and supercharges the whole thing. There’s an amazing sequence involving the British Prime Minister. This entry really cooks and is my personal favorite. My rank: 2nd of 7.
This was the season where the offense worked (team wRC+ was 4th in MLB; Posey, Belt, and Panik were all 130+ wRC+ guys) but the pitching didn’t (8.8 fWAR — 28th in MLB).
Now, folks, this is where the conspiracy-minded of you should get a real charge. Rogue Nation was released on July 31st. The 2015 Giants’ record through July 29th (date of their last game played before the movie’s release) was 56-45 (.554). Upon the movie’s release, the team went 28-33 (.459) the rest of the way.
Fallout (2018) | Director: Christopher McQuarrie | Giants: 73-89
Capsule review: It’s the best of the series, as much as it pains me to admit it. Rogue Nation is a little smarter, but this one’s much burlier and the insane action is as unbelievable as Tom Cruise hanging off of an airplane during takeoff if not more. My rank: 1st out of 7.
This 2018 Giants team was a last gasp of a dying championship core. Bobby Evans was tasked with Weekend at Bernie’sing the team to competitiveness, so they traded for Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria. It was my first year running the site. I remember it sort of well. The Giants could never escape the gravitational pull of .500. They were 52-52 going into this film’s release and they were 16-16 after it’s release and heading into that doomed month of September. So, you might say that there wasn’t a curse, there was simply a poorly constructed roster in front of a poorly managed player development pipeline.
Okay, well, I’m going to give you a little inside Hollywood here. The reason why the past 15 years or so have seen movie budgets explode is because the Chinese market was accessible and it became easier to approach billion-dollar grosses as a result. Fallout’s $181 million earned in China is the most any single entry in this series has grossed outside the United States, and it reflects 22% of the film’s worldwide gross (domestic + foreign). Fallout premiered in China on August 31st.
Dead Reckoning (2023) | Director: Christopher McQuarrie | Giants: 79-83
Capsule review: Lots to like, but a production fraught with delays and impaired by COVID lockdown protocols. The last hour takes place on a train and is fun. My rank: 4th out of 7.
This one came out during the All-Star break, which the Giants entered 49-41. They went 30-42 in the second half and Gabe Kapler was shown the exit before the season ended. Some might say that the combination of Kapler & Zaidi’s overmanagement led to another disappointing season, and those people may have a point, but it’s hard to argue with the Mission: Impossible factor, too.
Does this breakdown demonstrate that there’s an actual curse? I think so. The Giants have gone to the playoffs just once in the span of the Mission: Impossible film franchise, and it was a bummer of a trip! But as you can see, there are a couple of other instances where they might’ve gotten in with a third Wild Card, so it’s not out of the question that they could beat the curse.
Now, you might look at this and say, “Bryan, you idiot, most of these movies have come out in May, right before when the Giants hit their usual ‘June swoon’ — or better yet, when they’ve played barely a quarter of the season. None of this is a connection and you are a fool.” To that I would reply, “See you at the movies!”