Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports
Continuing our season in review series, we jump over to centerfielder Jackson Merrill. The youngster signed a 9-year, $135 million contract in April, but faced considerable adversity in 2025 due to numerous injuries.
Jackson Merrill’s incredible rookie season had Padres fans on their toes to see what his sophomore season would hold. Merrill narrowly finished second in NL Rookie of the Year voting to the dominant hurler Paul Skenes. He hit .292 with 24 home runs and an .826 OPS— just behind Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr., who missed significant time. He also delivered some of the most consistent production in the clutch, more than we’ve ever seen from a rookie. Per FanGraphs, Merrill hit .308 with five home runs in High Leverage situations. His OPS was 1.061 across those 59 plate appearances.
While no one could reasonably expect him to carry his historical clutch stats over to 2025, expectations were high for Merrill’s general production in 2025. On Tuesday, April 2, the news broke that Merrill agreed to a team-friendly contract, locking him down through 2034. Combined with a strong first three series, it appeared that Merrill was heading in the perfect direction. Unfortunately, it was that third series where the frustration began.
Early Season Injury, and the Impact
After a game in Chicago where Merrill went 2-5 and homered, the Padres announced that Merrill would miss time. A right hamstring strain was the cause, and because of its lingering nature, Merrill missed exactly a month of action. He returned in May and performed well, batting an impressive .298, although he significantly lacked power, with just a .440 SLG to show for it in the month.
What became evident as Merrill’s season progressed was that he was notably striking out more often. A strong aspect of Merrill’s 2024 campaign was his ability to avoid the strikeout, even though he chased 34.4% of the time. In 2025, Merrill not only regressed in his chase rate but whiffed significantly more. The regression began to show up after his first I.L. stint, and worsened as the summer rolled on. Merrill’s raw quality of contact numbers didn’t go anywhere, but the strikeouts had a severe impact on his overall numbers.
More Setbacks
Oftentimes, one I.L. stint can dismantle a player’s entire season. Simply being in-and-out of the “swing of things” can force players into extended slumps that snowball throughout the course of a year.
Merrill instead dealt with three different trips to the I.L. In June, Merrill was forced out for a week with a concussion he suffered in Arizona. Sliding into second on a stolen base attempt, Merrill was tagged hard to the head, causing the injury.
While we know that injuries to the body can cause specific issues, such as movement, flexibility, and such, a concussion is completely different. The nature of the injury could have completely plagued the remainder of Merrill’s season. Fortunately, he appeared to move past it rather swiftly. Regardless, Merrill missed another period of time, right when he was finding a groove. He posted two multi-hit games that week, as the injury proved untimely yet again.
Merrill hit the shelf a third time in the middle of August with an ankle sprain. With the Padres trading for outfielder Ramon Laureano at the trade deadline, Merrill’s final absence was less costly to the Padres. However, it would end up leading to his best month of baseball.
MERRILL MADNESS
Jackson Merrill takes away a home run from Corbin Carroll! ? pic.twitter.com/SQ7vSkeehV
— MLB (@MLB) July 9, 2025
A Revitalized Final Stretch
It took five months and three trips to the I.L. for Merrill to finally look like himself again. After grinding and clawing his way to a .261 AVG and .730 OPS, Merrill took off in the final month of the season.
Seven of Merrill’s 16 home runs on the season came in September. To put that into perspective, 44% of Merrill’s 2025 home runs were hit in the final 20% of his at-bats on the season. Although he struck out a hefty 27% of the time, he was making hard contact the rest of the time. He drove in 16 RBIs and scored 17 runs in 24 games during September. With outfield mate Fernando Tatis Jr. catching a second wind simultaneously, it suddenly looked like the Padres were poised to get a huge boost come October.
Jackson Merrill joins the home run party ? pic.twitter.com/MKALV00f9g
— MLB (@MLB) September 14, 2025
While the latter half of that hope didn’t come to fruition, Merrill held his weight. He played a good center field and made an impact at the dish, although rather untimely. Merrill went 3-9 with a walk, two doubles, a sacrifice fly, and a home run. He drove in a run in Game 2 and Game 3 of the series, and came around to score in Game 1.
The home run he picked up in Game 3 ultimately amounted to nothing, as the Padres couldn’t complete the comeback. Merrill led off the ninth inning with the home run, cutting the deficit to two and starting a rally.
Conclusion
Although 2025 as a whole wasn’t the grand outcome that fans and Merrill alike hoped for, it certainly wasn’t a step backwards. Merrill’s performance at the end of the season, when he finally got healthy, was a testament to that claim. With an offseason free of injury, Merrill’s stock shouldn’t drop any lower than it was before 2025.
When healthy, Merrill is still a pure hitter with an elite power-contact combo who plays a phenomenal center field. The same qualities that made him an exciting prospect— raw hitting skills, athleticism, competitive drive— are still factors that encourage a successful future for Jackson Merrill.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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