RHP Tanner Houck
Age on Opening Day 2026:Â 29 (30 on June 29)
Service Time: 4 years, 100 days
2023 Salary: League Minimum
2024 Salary: League Minimum
2025 Salary: $3.95 million
2026 Salary (Projection): $3.95 million
Background:
Once a first-round pick, it’s been a Boston Red Sox career of many peaks and valleys for Tanner Houck. It’s funny to think about how high his stock got less than 18 months ago, when he pitched himself into All-Star status with a 2.54 earned run average and equally-impressive under-the-hood metrics through his 19 first-half starts.
His production waned as the season progressed, which many chalked up to Houck pitching in unchartered territory from an innings standpoint. Fast forward to 2025, and he made just nine starts — two of which saw him give up 11 earned runs in 2 1/3 innings– and post an 8.04 ERA before hitting the shelf.
He rehabbed and appeared somewhat close to returning before getting shut down and eventually having Tommy John surgery, thus ending his 2025 season and likely his 2026 campaign as well.Â
In some ways, the massive swings between elite and utter unplayability of Houck acts as something of a microcosm of his big-league career, which saw him jerked between the rotation and bullpen in 2021 and 2022; that period saw him demoted to Triple-A a few times as well. He also pitched in October with mixed results, though he did get a win in the American League Division Series as a reliever.
As fellow Talk Sox writer @Nick John wrote this past weekend, it’s a worthwhile discussion to have whether he’s worth keeping around at north of $3 million to rehab ahead of an anticipated work stoppage in 2027.
Red Sox Depth at his Position (SP, 2027):
Summary:
It’s hard to examine depth at a position over a year out, as there seems to be no real optimism surrounding Houck’s ability to return next season. However, the Red Sox have a myriad of options at their disposal, assuming no trades or non-tenders to the group above, to withstand his absence and then some.
This isn’t even accounting for potential additions made this winter, or next winter.
Why the Red Sox Should Tender Houck a Contract:
It’s become a hot-button issue within the Red Sox’s fanbase regarding the organization’s willingness to part with successful homegrown talent. We’ve seen it most recently with third baseman and designated hitter Rafael Devers. While Houck doesn’t measure up to Devers’ résumé, he’s become the closest thing to a pitching developmental win for the organization since, what, Clay Buchholz circa 2008?
While Brayan Bello has carved out a nice career thus far, and the duo of Tolle and Early look promising, Houck has an All-Star appearance and a successful postseason outing on his track record. None of the aforementioned do. Not to mention, there’s an admiration there from pitching coach Andrew Bailey—just listen to how he talks about Houck with reliever Garrett Whitlock in the Netflix documentary covering the 2024 team.
Why the Red Should NOT Tender Houck a Contract:
While the Red Sox have a history paying guys for a year of rehab — as recent as left-hander Patrick Sandoval in 2025 — it’s not exactly a foolproof strategy for harboring talent. There will be re-growing pains when the player comes back, and sometimes those pains linger and result in setbacks or poor performance.
Houck fell off dramatically in the second half of 2024 before struggling to look like a big leaguer in spring training and his brief 2025 sample. It’s not similar to, say, Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Shane Bieber, who looked rejuvenated in 2024 before getting surgery. How confident can the Red Sox be that Houck comes back in 2027, whenever the season happens, and be a serviceable pitcher?
Plus, he’s going to turn 31 years old in June of 2027. Hardly old, but certainly closer to the end of his prime than the start.
Prediction:
I believe the Red Sox non-tender Houck this offseason. This is an organization that recently seems motivated to spend for front-line talent, and Houck’s recent performance prior to his injury did not fit that bill.
However, I do think Boston brings him back similar to what the Milwaukee Brewers did with Brandon Woodruff ahead of the 2024 season. The Brewers right-hander came back and pitched to a 3.20 ERA across 12 starts in 2025 before a lat injury derailed his comeback season.
The details of that contract paid Woodruff $2.5 million in 2024 and $5 million in 2025, with a $20 million mutual option for 2026. I think something of similar framework will be done for Houck in Boston, potentially lower on the AAV in 2026 and 2027 with the 2028 season guaranteed. This is a franchise with history of paying guys decent money with the understanding they won’t see him that season, and Houck’s prior success in Boston makes him a strong candidate to be the next member of that pay-to-rehab program.