Bring your questions and comments to a live chat on baseball and Cardinals right now.
Salutations. The Cardinals are back in St. Louis, fresh off their 7-2 road trip that we all agreed was going to be a significant test for them, and the Detroit Tigers loom (along with forecasts for storms) tonight. Quinn Mathews is back on the mound — beginning his recovery with an appearance down in Jupiter. Jack Flaherty is set to start against his first and former team Wednesday. And I’m sure you’ve got questions …
Let me get this transcript going, the chat in a good spot, and then plunge in!
As always, the questions are not edited for grammar or spelling. They are ignored for threats or vulgarities. A complete transcript of the chat will be done real time below the chat window so that you can read the chat just like any other article on the site.
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Get those questions in now, the chat is set to begin in 7 … 6 …
Dan Jensen: Why the white caps?
DG: This past weekend? They’re camouflage design as a way to show appreciation on and around Armed Forces Day. All Major League Baseball teams had a variety of that hat over the past weekend.
Cards fan in Bama: hey DG, based on what we have seen so far this first quarter of the season your opinion on the core of the roster going forward for the next 2,3 years or so ?
DG: Still undefined, especially when you stretch out to 3 years from now. Wetherholt will be a part of that. But do the Cardinals keep Nootbaar and Donovan going into that core, too? And do Walker and Gorman assert themselves as cornerstones for it? Still unsure. That starting staff of Liberatore, Leahy, Mathews, Roby, and McGreevy could be interesting …
Donald N: Derrick; Question of the day, if Cards are in the Central race, within a few games @ the Trade deadline, can they really still unload Matz, Helsley, Fedde etc? I know they have no Minor League pitching depth, but wow, what PR disaster that would be. Thank-you Donald
DG: They can indeed still do that brace themselves for the backlash from the public and the clubhouse. Which there would be. The front office and ownership can claim that the priority all along was the future years, not the immediate year and opt to stick with that plan as opposed to rewarding the team now for its play, its contention, and adding to it. I think this is going to be one of the more fascinating questions and dilemmas for the Cardinals this season. I tried to break it down this way in a recent episode of the Best Podcast in Baseball …
To contend, the Cardinals needed buy-in from the players.
To thrive, the Cardinals need buy-in from the fans.
To contend and make a push, the Cardinals need buy-in from the front office and ownership.
Uncertain until that week arrives.
John Mozeliak told KMOX/104.1 FM over the weekend that he hopes that 48 hours around the trade deadline are “complicated.” If they bail on a chance to contend, there won’t be anything complicated at all about the reaction.
ud: Are Mathews and Hence close to getting back into action? Is Hence turning into the new version of Alex Reyes?
DG: Mathews begins his rehab assignment today with the Florida Complex League Cardinals. (That is the short-season club that plays on the back fields in Jupiter.) While the chat is going on I should be able to get some updates on how it went for the lefty. Hence is less clear, though I hope to know more later today on his timetable for a return.
Alex Reyes was an All-Star closer and a late-inning reliever for playoff teams. So, the Cardinals would likely welcome Hence being the version of that.
Ray Jay: Do you agree with your colleague that the Cardinals can’t abandon their “focus on the future” to make a playoff run? If so, does that mean they might unload Helsley, Matz, Arenado, and others at the deadline? and what would that do to already low fan enthusiasm?
DG: They can indeed make those moves. I think it would be risky when it comes to message to the fans as well as to clubhouse. There’s a vibe in that clubhouse that maybe has a little underdog going in it, and if the front office makes the decision by defanging talent from that underdog, then we’ll all watch what happens. That’s a tough message to send the players who remain, especially if they are veterans who have contributed to this revival.
I’m always going to lean toward the Cardinals being responsive to their historic brand. That, until recently, was the promise made to the fans and the commitment to upkeep the history. And that brand is being in October and pursuing an NL pennant.
Tom: How about the guitar solo in Free Bird (get it!?) as a winning song for the Cardinals? It is lacking a fan sing-along option but it is catchy and if you pair it with a light show for night games, could be fun!
DG: It would at least be something. I think there’s probably a sing-along that fits better. I know there’s support for Johnny B. Goode. I heard one over the weekend that could fit, and I need to think of it. Maybe it will come to me during the chat.
Jim fan since 64: Just wanted to let you know that I have enjoyed your latest column write fielder. I always enjoy these chats and appreciate your knowledge and humor. My question is do you think that this version ( the many ways of winning games) of Cardinal baseball is sustainable while trying to give time to younger players to grow, such as Gorman and Walker and some of the younger pitchers? I also really enjoyed the last podcast with Jeff Gordon and how this team has become fun to watch much like the 80s teams and how the front office needs to energize the fan base. Thank you.
DG: Thank you for the compliments. Write Fielder is the new weekly newsletter that we’re offering here at the Post-Dispatch — and it is still evolving. I’m eager to hear back from readers about it, what they like, about what they don’t, and about what they want to see in such an article. It has a different tone from a news story — as it should. And I hope that connects with readers in a new way
The style of play sure seems sustainable. The defense is legit and a clear strength, and the athleticism is there. The offense is going to fluctuate as offenses due, but there is a variety of ways for these Cardinals to score runs, and that too is a style that can stick. They’ll stumble, they’ll leave runners on (Sunday), they’ll get stymied by an elite pitcher, they’ll get carved up by a lefty newcomer out of the minors — all of that happens. The style and substance of this place is sustainable. Is the success? That will take some additional pitching to keep it all stabilized.
Capstone: Cards are carrying 3 catchers (excluding Contreras); does one get moved, and if so which one and what could be the return
DG: There is no need to trade any of the catchers at this time. Not at all. All three have options. All three can moved to Class AAA. All of them should be kept in the organization. Pages and Herrera have given the Cardinals no reason why they aren’t the tandem in the majors.
Dan Jensen: This may sound crazy but would it help Norman Gorman to go down to Memphis for a while to maybe have some success? He can not be happy with the present.
DG: It doesn’t sound crazy. It’s something that the Cardinals constantly discuss when it comes to all of their players. As of recently, they settled on the belief that Gorman and Walker cannot get the experience, attention, tests, and work at that level that they need to thrive at this level. Another way to put that is what they also say about Burleson — there is nothing left for him to do at Class AAA that will get him better in the majors.
Mike in KC: “Birdhouse in Your Soul” by They Might Be Giants!
DG: Not to put too fine a point on it.
South City Steve: Personally, if contending is trading for a bench bat and a LOOGY at the deadline, and then watching Fedde and Helsley walk with only QOs, I’ll promise not to complain if they miss the playoffs but get prospects in trades. But on the flip side do you really see this offense leveling up in a year? This situation reminds me of the Nationals/Strasburg 2012 innings limit dilemma. There is no right answer in the moment.
DG: Erick Fedde might take the qualifying offer. Cardinals should brace themselves for that if they offer it.
The offense is improving before our eyes, so if that trend continues then it’s leveling up.
Mike in KC: How much of the offensive success can we attribute to Brant Brown? I know many are always hesitant to blame the hitting coach when guys aren’t hitting…and we should probably have the same hesitancy when they are hitting…but the approach at the plate and the results are really something to behold after the last couple of seasons.
DG: Plenty. Ample. Significant. A notable amount. The connection he’s made with several of the hitters is reminiscent to me of what I watched with Mark McGwire and the young players who welcomed him to St. Louis. Brant Brown-isms work, and then beneath them is a real emphasis on individualizing how he works with hitters and how he prepares them for the game. Results help, but consider how Jordan Walker has not yet really taken some of the improvements he’s made with coaches and in the cage and gone into games with them — but he’s still enthusiastic about them. That’s something that you can trace to the approach of the coach, the messaging, and what McGwire would describe as being the type of coach the hitter needs, and adjusting hitter by hitter to be that way. The way the Cardinals hitters are preparing for games under Brown’s guidance is something that stands out this season.
Ryan: If Herrera can’t throw runners out should he still be called a catcher? His bat plays obviously, but maybe he’s a DH and they’re really only carrying 2 catchers. Pages an Pozo???
DG: There’s more to catching than throwing out runners. And there’s more to being a DH on offense than being a catcher on offense. Can he be an above average DH on offense? Seems pretty certain he will be a well above average catcher on offense.
South City Steve: I’m dreaming of a 2009 Matt Holliday deadline move. Wouldn’t that exact trade be the perfect move for this roster?
DG: … If the Matt Holliday in this equation is a starting pitcher.
Thomas: Derrick. Thanks for the chats and the podcasts. May not be the exact wording, but I’ve heard in the past you mention “threading the needle” when it comes to deadline moves.
When it comes to Helsley’s situation specifically, I envision the Cardinals trying to thread the needle and trying to offload him regardless of standings at the deadline. If the bullpen continues to be steady, (albeit Helsley being a central part of that) I do think Gracefo and others can slide up. Now, obviously that would impact the clubhouse vibes but I do think that is a sensical move. Would not be popular but they should maximize the return on him because I do not seeing the Cardinals re-signing Helsley. Closer shelf lives are finnicky at best. What sort of general return would Helsey garner at the deadline? Phillies, DBacks, Tigers, and more will be certainly looking to shore up the backend of their pen soon.
DG: The return for trading Ryan Helsley, based on past examples of deals at the deadline, should be significant.
In 2016, the Yankees leveraged the urgency of other teams to hasten their own “reset” or “reboot” and dealt two closer-level relievers, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman, to the teams that met in that year’s World Series. The Cubs sent four players to the Yankees for Chapman, and three of those players reached the majors, including Gleyber Torres and pitcher Adam Warren. That’s a haul. The Cubs traded those players for only a few months of Chapman, who became a free agent at season’s end. Just like Helsley will. Chapman was considered one of the top closers of his generation, and he was a 1.4 WAR closer at the time of the trade. Helsley, on May 19, is a 0.4 WAR so far this season. But … Chapman was coming off a strong 2.7 WAR season in 2015. Helsley? Oh, he had a 2.9 WAR this past season. The return on Helsley could be significant for sure.
And it will be worth watching how the Cardinals position their bullpen in the weeks leading up to the deadline as a tell for their preparation. Gordon Graceffo is internally considered a candidate for closer in the Cardinals’ future. Time? TBD.
Charlie: Despite his hard work, Nolan Arenado just is not his old offensive or defensive self. Specifically offensively, he seems to pop out at least once each game, usually in a critical situation. How much longer should Oli put him in the cleanup spot? Harerra seems like a much better fit.
DG: We have a different view of the defense we’re seeing. Arenado, to me, is playing superb defense. Tremendous defense. Vintage defense. I can pull out the Thesaurus and add some adjectives if you wish, but you get the idea.
As for the lineup, as long as it’s working this way and it’s a fit for folks — especially Contreras in that five spot, no? — then the Cardinals are likely to stick with what they’ve got. If Herrera moves somewhere it would be to No. 2, but that also has been a place that ignited Masyn Winn … At some point the offense will cool, the question will surface, the conversation will be about where to put Herrera, etc., and you’ll see a shift to the cleanup spot as part of that discussion if Herrera is still thumping and the Cardinals are not rolling.
JB: If the Cardinals got a good trade offer for Arenado now, would they accept it? And would Arenado waive his no trade clause to leave?
DG: They likely would, especially if cutting costs is still a charge from ownership, as it’s been since November. The bigger question is what you ask: Would he? And there are few, few, few, few, fewer teams that he would accept a trade to. As we’ve discussed often in print and in chat, he enjoys being in St. Louis, being part of the Cardinals, and they’re playing well like and he other veterans pushed and believed they could. He doesn’t want to go sideways. And up would be the Dodgers, Yankees, maybe Padres. Arenado doesn’t want to move for the sake of moving, and he is enjoying himself with this team. There hasn’t been much movement on dealing Arenado or trade talks with Cardinals, just FYI.
Rexrod: If my count is correct there are 14 players on the 26 man roster who were drafted by the Cardinals. Is this above average for MLB?
DG: Fourteen, indeed, if you also include the international amateur signings. Slightly less if you mean drafted and that’s it. Only five pitchers, which does stand out. How that compares to the other 29 teams, I’d have to go team by team to figure that out at the moment. Back in 2016, the average was about 16 in MLB when you add draft to international for a “homegrown” total. In 2021, the Cardinals had 14 homegrown players on their playoff roster, and that was the most of any of the 10 teams in that postseason. The average: 8.7.
Ray: Given the organizational depth at the catcher position, good an old-fashioned baseball trade be in store to deal a catcher for a pitching prospect at double or triple AAA that may be able to add depth to the team this year and beyond?
DG: Absolutely. The past two springs (at least), there have been other teams circling the Cardinals as the place to go for catching depth and trying to explore or research or speculate what the Cardinals would want in return. There for awhile it was Herrera, and now it’s eyeballing Jimmy Crooks and the thought there are two ahead of him, and there are too prospects rushing up behind him. So, yep, other teams are doing the same calculus you are.
LukerT: I agree with you as far as gorman, oneill was the same way, stunk up here send him down and he hits 4 hrs in 3 games, but how can you say that about walker. Hes never had sustained success at aaa, hes young, why not let him play everyday and hit his way up when he is ready?
DG: To be clear: I didn’t say that about Walker. The Cardinals have said that about Walker. If I didn’t make that clear in the answer, then it’s on me.
Max: Kind of a big week for former Cardinals retiring. Curious how you look back at the career of Wong? If i remember correctly, there were hopes of a cornerstone player who would annually contend for Gold Gloves and All-Star appearances. I believe it was predicted in this very chat a decade ago. There’s something about the way he was handled when he first came up that just never sat well with me. He always seemed stuck in the middle due to a manager that was (perhaps) out over his skis.
DG: I did indeed in this chat suggest/predict that Kolten Wong would be an All-Star. That prediction seemed fair given he had a style of game that fans would rally behind and vote for, and that he would also have production go with it. Plus, I looked at the production elsewhere at that position and it sure seemed that peak Kolten Wong would come just after Chase Utley, for example, was no longer vying for ASG berths at 2B. Obviously that prediction didn’t happen. There are many reasons. One, Wong’s production didn’t capture the fans attention, and he was jostled about in the lineup and out and never seemed as surefooted in the lineup as he was surehanded in the field. Two, STL fans just don’t vote much for the All-Star Game. That makes it difficult for a player who is super popular here to carry that into ASG because the folks who support him the most just aren’t voting all that much. The year for it to happen was 2019, and it did not. I did wonder if he got the ASG-voting machine that is Milwaukee behind him if that happened there, but the production wasn’t the same, though it was still strong defensively and he contributed 3.0 WAR each year. Solid career. Strong career. Definitely rewarded the Cardinals for their first-round pick.
Joe: Walker batting under .200. He appears to be on same track as last year. Time at Memphis warranted?
Discussed earlier in the chat.
Update from Florida: Quinn Mathews threw two scoreless innings in Jupiter. He struck out four of the seven batters he faced He did allow a hit, and he did not walk a batter. Just buzzed through his rehab return.
Johnson: I dont think the fans are all of a sudden going to rush down to Busch Stadium, the message is clear to ownership, not the players, and everybody with a brain knows it.
DG: We’ll see. I think there is definite reason not to believe that the fans are going to suddenly flood the ballpark this week because of how the team played on the road.
Joe: Derrick are we watching the same Arenado? He is not the Nolan of 2022.
That Nolan Arenado finished third for the National League MVP and won a 10th consecutive Gold Glove. He was one of the league-leaders in WAR, if not the league-leader in WAR. This year’s Arenado — as I said — is playing superb defense, aggressive, agile. Currently, Arenado is plus-3 DRS at third. That’s behind Matt Chapman (plus-6) and Ryan McMahon (plus-5) at his position. Arenado had a strong second half defensively and was a finalized for the Gold Glove, and seems positioned to be there in the conversation again and is playing well.
Ed AuBuchon: I thought Mo’s runway for Walker and Gorman at bats was at the major league level?
DG: That is what they said, yes.
AJ in NoVA: I wish Arenado would end the agony and say he won’t approve a trade until the offseason. As you noted, his defence is still brilliant and he seems to have bought into the current situation.
DG: He effectively has by limiting the number of teams that he’d accept a trade to. It’s not worth the Cardinals time canvassing other teams, and they know that now, and teams like the Angels and Royals who called just check during the winter have long known he wasn’t going to accept a deal there. Action suggests that he has, even if it hasn’t been said or posted on social media. I think you’re reading the actions, and that’s the way to go.
Chris: With how well the team is playing and reading some of this chat, do you feel we are going to have a game of investment chicken between the fans and FO? Who invests first, the fans returning or the FO making a move at the deadline even if attendance isn’t fully back?
DG: Entirely possible. I was thinking that the appropriate analogy would be a staring contest — who blinks first. But chicken is fine. I think there may indeed be a little bit of this. And, let me point out because it’s going to apparently be my drum kit this season, that the atmosphere at the ballpark is part of bringing fans in to enjoy the team, if it continues to play like this. The ballpark should share the same verve as this year. Make it a “youngry” atmosphere. Embrace the underdog aspect. Go in on it. As I said in the podcast — the past few years the Cardinals have been stoic and the ballpark has been stoic. This team is kinetic so far, let the ballpark be the same.
Darrell M: Greetings DG…even with Walker and Gorman hitting below the Mendoza line, this offense is fun to watch unlike the offense the past couple of years (forgive me Mr. Dewitt) balls are flying everywhere and all are making contact and hitting the ball where a fielder is not. What the heck happened? Has Brant Brown made that kind of impression? Has the offensive funk been cleaned out of the clubhouse? What is different? I gotta know!
DG: There are many reasons. Brant Brown is one of them. Jon Jay is another. And then there’s Victor Scott II.
Consider for a moment how sluggish this lineup would look if Victor Scott II wasn’t on base, was struggling like he did a year ago, and thus wasn’t steal, wasn’t taking the extra base, wasn’t putting that pressure on and being the R in Nootbaar’s RBIs? That lineup would look at a lot different, but there’s a bounce to this lineup because Scott is performing at speed, and Contreras is crushing the ball and not catching and out of the lineup every few days, and Nootbaar is healthy and not out for three weeks. There are many reasons for the liveliness of the offense, and those are just a few of them.
Bake21: Two part question. The emergence of Kyle Leahy has been a pleasant surprise. Down the raod do the Cardinals view him as a potential starter or closer? What do they think is his best fit.
DG: What he would like as a starter and how to develop that look in the future is the current conversation.
Andrew Kittredge is the first one I remember mentioning Leahy as a starter and he had a compelling case. Dusty Blake has only added on to that reasoning, and we’re watching how Leahy is attacking lineups one time through, so there’s no reason to think a look at starter makes sense at some point.
Bake21: The second part of my Kyle Leahy question. Given his minor league track record which in some cases was pretty awful, don’t the Cardinals front office of Mo and Gary LaRoocque deserve some credit for sticking with him and uncovering a gem?
DG: Sure. I’m not really in the rationing of credit business. It’s not a zero-sum game. By giving credit to someone I am not taking away credit from someone else. Same thing with a compliment. I can say this is a good question, and still have plenty of good questions to give others later in the chat. I won’t run out.
That said, it wasn’t too long ago the Cardinals’ DFA’d Leahy to move him off the roster and create room. That is what Texas did with Adolis Garcia, too. So to be consistent it’s worth pointing that out. They did give every other team the chance to see in Leahy this before they did.
Bake21: You’re right, I forgot they DFA’d him. Sometimes you have to get lucky.
DG: Indeed. That’s true for all 30 teams.
Paul J: Will Herrera start catching soon? He has to bat and being the primary DH not only clogs the AB’s for bench players but also from occasionally getting the older guys days off?
DG: That is what Oliver Marmol has said, yes. Herrera had the one game, as advertised, at catch, and the manager has said there will be more of them when various reporters ask daily about it.
RFrodeman: So how long is the runway for Gorman and Walker? Into July? after?
DG: Sure. They advertised 2025 as the runway, so no reason to think it won’t be 2025.
Ed AuBuchon: Brant Brown has done great except for Walker and Gorman who he was hired to help. Jon Jay has done a great job with Walkers defense.
DG: How do you know? If both Jordan Walker is doing everything well in the cage and still trying to translate that into the box, into the game, then is that him or the coach? Brown isn’t in the box with either of them. If you think they are both unprepared for their at-bats or incapable of seeing how opponents are attacking them, by all means say so and blame the coach. Coach is preparation. But in the box, if they are prepared and ready and know what to do and how to attack it, then it’s execution. That’s the player.
Ryan: Which surprises you more? Tyler O’Neill is on the IL or Carlson doesn’t have a hit in 15 MLB ab’s and is hitting .219 @ AAA?
DG: Dylan Carlson. His chances to assert himself as a big leaguer were sidetracked by injury, and that was unfortunate because of the talent he had. O’Neill plays well when he’s healthy. That’s his career arc.
Tackleberry: What happened to DeWitt’s desire to chase titles? It feels like 2025 DeWitt is a completely different owner than even 2013 DeWit. His competitive fire that turned around a fledgling franchise looks like smoldering ash now.
DG: I guess that depends on your perspective. The Cardinals were surpassed by other teams when it came to development. That caught up with them. Instead of adding staff they did chase some stars — Price, Stanton, Goldschmidt, Arenado, and so on. There are some lens where chasing high-dollar proven major-league talent would suggest the exact opposite of what you are saying, that after 2013 he chased the urgency, the stars, the legacy signings (Matt Carpenter extension, for example) while other teams caught and surpassed them in innovation and development. Must be in the eye of the beholder because the erosion below the majors was not as apparent because they did keep winning in the majors ….
Mike in KC: Are some chatters watching different games? Arenado’s defense has been phenomenal this year! Certainly his offense isn’t what it was at it’s peak… and he has been better in the past… but he’s much improved over last year all around.
DG: That’s my read on it. Not sure what is coming across on TV, but that’s how it looks at the ballpark.
Johnson: I think Herrera will catch twice against Tigers as they don’t steal bases, it will be a team-by-team thing, him at catcher really lengthens lineup
Paul J: If the Cards fail to make the playoffs will Marmol be the manager next year w Bloom taking over or will he want “his man” to lead?
DG: No one knows at this moment. Marmol is under contract for that season, and like everyone around the organization — players to anyone — they’re all learning what will change with Bloom in charge, and Bloom is taking the time to get to know these folks now to make those decisions. There won’t be some single-issue litmus test that makes the decision, and when it comes to the manager ownership will also be involved. All of that is to say, it’s May 19 and they don’t need to make a decision today, so they won’t. They’ll gather more info, not set some arbitrary event to happen or even some legit single event to happen, and instead make a much more well-informed and far-reaching choice because of the importance of the job.
RC: What are your thoughts on the upcoming draft? Do the Cards pick the strongest college starting pitcher or best available athlete that is available at the fifth pick?
DG: At the moment, the Cardinals and draft pundits believe there will be a strong, upside, impact bat available at No. 5 that the Cardinals can select and pair with Wetherholt for the future of the lineup. Of course, there will be the polished college pitcher, but in talking with people about the draft recently, they do mention the availability of the bat that is so rarely available to the Cardinals.
Ryan: That’s kind of the point right? For Walker, him continuing to swing at stuff away is on him and him having an approach at the plate to spit on those pitches. Safe to assume Brown is mentioning this, also safe to assume Walker is either unwilling or not listening since it continues to happen. He can work int he cage all he wants. It This is not a 3 week thing, its a 2 year thing. Same with Gorman except he’s 25 yr old.
DG: I have been there when Brown has brought it up — either to Walker or in answering my question about it. I was there talking to Walker when he mentioned specifics about what Brown tells him, what they work on, and then see good returns in the cage. And I’ve watched the games where Walker struggles to take what he does well in the cage, what his coach talks to him about, what he’s receptive to talking about and detailed talking about with his coach or media, and … then it’s not there yet in the batter’s box. If you want to ask whether it ever will be, that’s fine. Baseball is tough, as we all know, and a hitter who can crush in BP but not take into the game is going to struggle, and a hitter who is learning new approach is also going to take time especially when the crucible of a game is different — I’m sure you’d agree — than the cage.
I hope that helps reduce what you are assuming because some of it just is incorrect.
Johnson: Can you dive into what Brown has tried with Gorman, its not working obviously, did the hand waggle took away his bat speed, any insight is appreciated.
DG: An emphasis for Gorman is reconnecting with the success he had in spring that increased his contact rate, and that was using more of the field, driving specifically to the middle of it. The Cardinals want him to think about driving the alleys, and then if the pitcher gives him a pitch to pull, he does that naturally with his power. Brown says not every hitter buys into his phrasing, but he sticks with it: Homers are pitched, not hit. And he wants Gorman thinking in those terms because the natural power/swing is there, so it’s about making more contact, and Gorman does that when he’s looking to drive pitches between the alleys. We saw that in spring training with Gorman’s spray charts. He and the team were encouraged by that.
Johnson: What is Gorman’s issue this year, his bat speed is down significantly, at least I see a glimmer of hope with Walker, but Gorman is just a mess right now
DG: It’s almost like his bat speed is down as he adjusts to make more contact. Bat speed is not the be-all, end-all measure. It’s more nuanced. Walker has elite bat speed. Scott II does not. What is contact doing for one over the other? The stat is not reliable alone for telling us how good a hitter is going to be, and there was a fascinating discussion on that with KC slugger Vinnie Pasquantino on MLB Network when he was asked about his bat speed, and he talked about how maybe it wasn’t a good thing to see it increase at the expense of contact. He said the goal is to find a happy medium for who he is as a hitter. That seems the right use.
Craig: Derrick, do you see Saggese getting a significant amount of AB’s in St. Louis this season?
DG: Not the way the roster is currently structured, not without injury.
Paul J: Do you see management go back to emphasizing drafting and developing P as it did for so long to hopefully have cost controlled P like Libby and Pallantr
DG: Not necessarily in the first round, but overall — through the course of the draft. Sure. Yes. Gathering pitching depth will be part of the goal.
JB: What does the Cardinals lineup look like if they can get 2023 level offensive production from Walker and Gorman, or even just average production?
DG: Far deeper, for sure. And also more varied in how they can pounce on pitchers with power. There’s a power aspect that has been there in flashes. They would give more of a power component.
Chris: How bad is that Rockies team? Where is the personal pride in being a major league ballplayer? I would have thought Memphis could win 25% of game in the majors. Maybe I’m wrong.
DG: Put me in the camp that the best Class AAA team would struggle mightily in the majors and do so with historic levels of losing. The gap between the two levels is huge — arguably the most significant difference in the game, and it is certainly a bigger gap between Class AAA and the majors than from Class AA to Class AAA. The Rockies are not great, and still they would be a juggernaut at Class AAA.
Mike in KC: Don’t forget Ivan Herrera’s emergence as a legitimate threat and one of the top hitting catchers in all of baseball.
John W: Have you heard any rumors as to what type of player they will draft in that 5th spot, power hitter or pitcher?
DG: I’ve heard rumors about all of it. If you want a specific player for them to be tied to at No. 5, you can find a rumor to fit your wishes. A few moments ago I outlined what folks I’ve spoken to suggest about the Cardinals’ view, and I feel comfortable reporting that, attributing it to sources. Rumors tend to bend and shape to the wishes of the excitement. So, I’ll do my best for you and other readers to cut through the fog of rumors to bring you reports.
Ryan: He’s getting plenty of time to think with 5 ab’s in the last 7 days.
DG: Cardinals have faced a handful of lefties in the past week, so it’s somewhat expected, no?
Ryan: I’m not arguing with you, just stating a fact. Most teams who pick at 21 in the 1st rd are not shopping for platoon hitters. So no, that’s not what I would expect for a player who is getting a so called runway to justify a selection.
DG: Maybe it’s time for the Cardinals to get past the point of “justifying” where a player was drafted and just be in the business of developing all of the players to the best performance possible. If you saw a 13th-round pick that was rocking and socking in Class AAA Memphis, would you forgive the Cardinals for not giving him any time to prove himself because they need to cap his rise to “justify” their draft pick? At some point the draft money is spent, and ability to bring out talent from all players selected has to be the goal. That is what separates development from draft. Maybe opportunity isn’t bonus blind — and that’s ok — but development should be.
Johnson: Gorman not playing against a righty is telling to me. What’s that about? Where’s his runway?
DG: Some of it is taken up by Alec Burleson, for sure. Gorman’s at-bats are limited because the Cardinals did not trade Nolan Arenado. This isn’t a surprise. This was clear in spring training.
Mike in KC: Very doubtful Holliday is available at #5, I presume?
DG: Very doubtful he gets past the Rockies at No. 4.
Brian: Do you think Herrera’s throwing issues can be corrected? This seems like a technical topic and I have no clue. If he could even get to the low end of decent, what an asset he could be.
DG: Corrected? That’s an interesting verb choice. Improved, yes. Compensated for, yes. I’m not sure if he’ll ever throw as well as some of his contemporaries. He’s put in the work for sure. It’s not come easily, and he’s worked on his arm strength.
Capstone: Matz, Mikolas, and Helsley can be free agents at end of year. The qualifying offer is too high for the Cards to stomach. Do Cards attempt to negotiate, trade, or let them walk. No easy answers but the costs for them if they take the QO is very pricey, isn’t it?
DG: They’ll consider trades for Matz and Helsley, and those will be telling for what the team feels about its depth at those positions or the opportunity to contend. If the record really takes a nosedive, then they’ll listen on all three of those players for sure, and Mikolas will have to weigh his no-trade clause at that time. If all three get to season’s end with the Cardinals, they’re likely to let all three walk with Helsley getting consideration for a QO to secure a draft pick and the others becoming free agents.
CH: Nolan Gormans at bats have noticeably dried up. In May the Cards have played 17 games and he has only 27 plate appearances. Seems like the opportunity to get W’s and be competitive in the division is shortening his runway. thoughts ?
DG: I think the way you described that will be more telling in July than right now. I do like the way you phrased it though — and we should watch for that with the Cardinals to get a read on how the performance this summer and the standings are shaping their adherence to the “runway” or ‘reset” or “transition” and not being drawn into that contending and impatience that they described as wanting to avoid this season. We’ll see. My bet? The gravitational pull of being able to win the division will be strong if they’re near it and they’ll have a hard time not playing/managing accordingly.
Again, it’s a great way to phrase it — but it’s a bit too early to draw that line in this case.
Paul J: Do you see attendance dramatically improve w summer and better results or will it take improved downtown security and thinking it’s safe to bring families there to resemble the crowds from past years?
DG: I don’t know. It is difficult to differentiate from the loudest fans on Xwitter and the actual majority of the fans who are less vocal and will actually give us a window into how the fan base feels with their presence at the ballpark or their tuning in for games. That’s in part because the anger/criticism on Xwitter is definitely manifesting more — or rather is reflected more this year in ticket sales than ever. Does that mean that the majority and the vocal are closer together than before? Possibly. Either way. It’s worth watching as this develops and if the Cardinals are playing better in the standings and still skewering in social media — which reflects the number of fans in the seats. I am eager to watch what happens. But I won’t pretend to be able to guesstimate with certainty.
Johnson: 2025 is a transition year, not a playoff year, let’s not distort the reality DG…
DG: We can let the players do that with their performance. Which was the point all along.
Metamoron: Sorry, just joining, sorry if this has been asked. It appears that the current team status, ie investment in coaches, situational hitting when appropriate, solid defense, are the things that Mike Schildt was stressing. Is that correct?
DG: In part. There are different routes to the same destination and there are arguments over who is the driver and vehicle to take to get their. Please don’t rely on what the team said about that decision — “philosophical differences” — and instead trust in the reporting at the PD and elsewhere about how this was a personality clash that the team decided could not be overcome.
John W: I am assuming you are thinking of Pujols with that response. Wasn’t he 13th overall?
DG: I am not. He was not. Albert Pujols was selected in the 13th round of the 1999 draft. He was taken 402nd overall.
John W: Why wouldn’t they consider an extension for Helsley? I think he has proven he is not just a one year wonder.
DG: Maybe they do. We’ll see. But they’ve been about cutting costs and reducing payroll, not paying market price for a closer. Haven’t seen that from them since … Isringhausen?
John W: I am not. He was not. Albert Pujols was selected in… more
MY bad, I meant 13th round overall
Capstone: To continue: Depth at catcher and middle infield. Are there options there for replenishment of pitching talent?
I have to relocate to the ballpark for coverage. I will take another swing through the questions there and then close up the chat — hopefully with a lightning round of questions. You game?
… Back into the fray for a bit …
JuniorGM: Derrick – A victory song is nothing new to the Cards. During the heyday of Whitehall, we had two – “Celebration” and “The Heat is On”. Going down the street, the Blues had “Gloria”. It’s not new, we just need to pick the right song.
DG: Exactly. I did not mean to suggest it’s new, just that it’s overdue. And needed.
Aaron Knopf: Hi Derrick, I’m curious if you’ve asked Willson Contreras whether he sees parallels between this team’s development and what he saw with the Cubs emergence in 2015.
DG: I have not. Hasn’t really leapt to mind because that Cubs team tanked to get high picks, had Kris Bryant — who could have been a top pick — and I’m not sure there’s the parallel there. Also, is the 2015-era Cubs what the Cardinals are aiming for? Is that the length of contention they’re going for, and then cycle away from all of the stars? Sure seems like the Cardinals would strive for a different model.
Big Red One: It would be foolish for the Cards to keep any of the free agent vets at the deadline. Especially Helsley who will be at peak value. Move them all, including Maton, and get a haul in return. It’s the smart move, and the BFIB get it and will support it more than some people think.
DG: The BFIB may get a chance to prove that. But judging by attendance so far — how does that look if they do that? Also, what message does it send to the young players who will have helped this team into contention? No reward for that? Just yanking the vets out of the clubhouse? The messaging of moves like that will be fascinating, and I’m skeptical the crowds will … remain the same.
Jack: Will Walker and Gorman’s early career struggles at the MLB level affect how the team handles Wetherholt’s advancement? Curious when he might be promoted to Memphis as he’s having a great start to pro ball. On a tangential note, might his performance affect Donovan’s availability in trade talks?
DG: No. They’ll individualize. That’s a big thing these days, and they seem to be practicing it at the minor-league level and the group that will be making that call is the one driving that approach these days.
Brendan Donovan and JJ Wetherholt can coexist on the same team.
Brad aka Lars: Let’s revisit the Ivan Herrera situation a minute. If I’m understanding you correctly, you say he’d be an above average (MLB) catcher offensively, but not necessarily an above average MLB DH? I say he would he be an above average MLB DH. However, what’s more important in my opinion is that he’s already much better offensively than the Cardinals’ DH hitters have been this year. I’d also love to see somebody break down the Cards’ DH position vss the rest of the league this year (if I knew how to do this I would). Thanks, Derrick!
DG: Entirely fair points, and if you’re going to take the bet on his bat, bet the upside for sure. I’m just offering the perspective that the bat at catcher is well above average, and the same would not be the case for DH. You make a strong point that it’s relative not to the league but to the team. Good way to consider it.
Metamoron: Do you think there will be innings limits on Pallante and/or Libby this year? Do you believe that answer, along with injury recovery of minor league pitchers may be a big part of trade deadline decision making?
DG: Some of that is already happening with the six-man rotation and the added breaks built in. That is a way of reducing overall innings without reducing in-game innings. Just fewer games. That is how the Cardinals are monitoring and writing the schedule.
Ben: Curious about the question here, specifically the safety/security portion of it – generally my father and I have made the pilgrimage to StL from Indiana for a weekend each summer. Since Covid, (and having 2 children since), we have not made said trip; instead, opting to try and make it to games closer to our vicinity when the Cards are visiting, such as Milwaukee (always know we’ll see a game, even in April/May showers), Detroit, Cincinnati, or either Chicago club. Generally, I view claims about cities’ downtowns being unsafe relatively skeptically, given that I often see those claims as even when shared in good faith being overstated, often times being said with bias against urban centers for one reason.. or another…. That being said, having not been back for nearly 5 years, can you share what your thoughts are on the downtown safety topic I’ve seen brought up in chats, twitter, etc.?
DG: I leave the ballpark late and night, and I feel comfortable doing so. I pay attention to the reports, to the reporting, to the stories, and consider what are trends and what are isolated events. We both know that social media is going to amplify something, and not always the entire story. Sometimes it’s only one story. Sometimes it’s the initial story and the complete story never catches up. Be a critical and cautious reader. The other day, I walked from the ballpark to the Gateway Arch, around the Arch, and back to my car — and there wasn’t a moment that I felt unsafe or that I didn’t see other people walking or that it wasn’t well-lit. It is up to each individual and family what they are comfortable and safe doing — and always be aware. But that is true for any and every ballpark. Be aware of your surroundings and cautious and I hope that brings comfort.
Johnson: Herrera is the most dangerous hitter on team, I think he and Arenado should switch spots in order, Arenado had some massive fails in recent losses in high leverage at bats, would rather Herrera have those ABs.
DG: The manager, after consultation and conversation with the third baseman, has agreed and made the move today.
Ryan: Who is generally worth more when it comes to prospects? Same ranking per se, pitcher or catcher? ie… does the 47th ranked AA catcher in the top 100 fetch the 35th ranked pitcher in AA and an additional top 30 prospect or other way around?
DG: Great question. It’s a classic supply and demand situation. The demand for pitching is high, the supply of elite prospect catchers is low. It’s not a paint by numbers situation like you suggest because team need and evaluation is going to play a larger part in it. That said, a high-ceiling starter is going to command more because the demand is high and the supply isn’t great, but a catcher isn’t too far behind if he’s an elite, complete prospect because while demand isn’t as high — the supply is quite low. A catcher you’re describing is likely to be a strong part of a package of players for a starter who would improve a rotation at the trade deadline, not lead it, but definitely improve it. Or, in the offseason would be a part of a package to take on a hitter with a rising salary or near free agency, or both. Think: Carson Kelly in deal for Paul Goldschmidt but a better prospect at the time Kelly was traded.
Brian: Hi Derrick, have enjoyed the podcast this season. The recent discussion on extra innings has me wondering (earnestly) do the Cards have a strategy when extra innings? From watching the few extras games at the start of this season, it doesn’t seem so, or they’re not executing it well.
DG: They absolutely do. It’s different on the road where the piling up of runs is necessary than it is at home, where if the game allows you you can play for a run and walk it off. They adjust that strategy based on where they are in the lineup and where the opponent is, but that’s the general sense of it. Play for as many as possible on the road, play for the one more than they have at home.
SydneyDave: Thanks for the consistently excellent content. Do you think the front office is “surprised” by the recent surge and do they think it’s sustainable, or do they view it as the team getting hot as teams sometimes do? I am reasonably sure the answer to that question will influence their decisions going forward. Also, I for one is at least comfortable with the decision the FO made to go with the sub-age 27 players over the off season instead of pursuing mediocre over 27 free agents.
DG: There’s an element of surprise for sure that traces back to not being able to trade Arenado. They thought they had a deal and that he was headed to a new team and that they would move in another direction. With Arenado on the team the Cardinals’ projections for this team would have been less in the standings, and with him on it, they were better. They had some sense, but it’s come together quicker and this streak was not something expected.
Johnson: Why Roycroft in a tie game, i consider that high leverage and a spot for Maton, Oli wasnt chasing anything tied, seems kind of odd to me to pitch the worst pitcher on staff
DG: Asked this question today because I wondered if Phil Maton was not available, and the answer was that Maton was the tie option an inning later and Roycroft was the tie option in that moment to assure he got the right-handers. A run of lefties would have been there in eighth, and Marmol preferred Maton there instead of Roycroft. Whether Maton was available is the question not directly answered. One interesting thing Marmol did add was that if the Cardinals led at that moment he would have gone to Kyle Leahy and let loose the bullpen go for the sweep, knowing that Leahy would miss the first two games of this Tigers series. The sweep would have been the goal at that point.
Millo Miller: Derrick, we are going to have our 4 grandchildren at the game Sunday for kids run the bases day. How about a Seniors walk the bases day. Just think of how many people who attend Cardinal games dreamed of being a MLB player and have never been on a big league field.
DG: The Phillies have a day like that, for 55 and older. They call it “stroll the bases.”
Thomas: Trading Arenado mid year for a salary dump would be a pr DISASTER. All that to save a couple million off the books. Hall of Fame player. Tenacious competitor. Sure he’s not mashing 30 homers anymore but someone needs to let the front office know that he is a player people come watch. I don’t want to watch Gorman man the hot corner everyday and not being able to make any contact
DG: Only the fans can let the front office know that. But it would be a move met sourly by the clubhouse given how they’ve played together and, again, how fond his teammates are of him. He’s not having the offensive contribution that he wants. Told us today that he wants to be a two-way player again and is frustrated that’s not happening. His teammates what that for the team, obviously but also for him because they know how he aches to contend and chose to be there with them … multiple times now.
Alright, it’s 6 p.m. and that means it’s time to pivot to game coverage. There’s a lot to type and a short time to do it. Thanks for a lively chat. Definitely covered a lot of ground — and the overall vibe was … upbeat? Perhaps cautiously upbeat is the way to describe it. There is definitely some sense of a shoe waiting to drop — and that could be that the team keeps winning and fans show up, or it could be that the team keeps winning and the front office trades players anyway, or it could be that the team cools, slows down, doesn’t win and makes the decision for the both the front office and the fans. A team playing well to force the uncomfortable decisions is the better story. I do wonder if that will be enough for capture the imagination of fans …
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