The Padres garnered 90+ wins for the second straight season, good enough for a 2nd place finish in the NL West before an eventual Wild Card loss to the Cubs. San Diego was a tax-payer in 2025 carrying the 6th highest CBT payroll in MLB according to our data. Outside of a major player trade, the Padres project to be flirting with that threshold yet again in 2026.

A Bright Spot
SP Nick Pivetta emerged as a much needed ace for this rotation, fresh off of a 4 year, $55M free agent contract. Unfortunately for the Padres, Pivetta has the ability to opt-out of the contract after 2026, so another solid year could mean it’s back to the drawing board.

A Big Concern
Speaking of which. The starting rotation after Pivetta is a big unknown. Michael King & Dylan Cease are pending free agents. Joe Musgrove is still recovering from Tommy John. Yu Darvish is approaching 40 years old, and JP Sears struggled mightily in San Diego after being acquired from the A’s at the deadline.

Related Links
2026 Padres Financials
MLB Offseason Guides

Pending Free Agents

Of the list, Cease seems the most likely to return based on positional need, age, etc…but he’ll cost an arm and a leg to do so. Arraez will be one of the more interesting free agent cases to follow, as the league hasn’t valued pure contact hitters much at all in recent years.

Option Decisions

King is all but certain to decline his option in favor of a multi-year guarantee in free agency (projecting toward a 4 year, $90M contract in our system). Suarez has been one of the best closers in baseball the past two seasons and should double his annual salary on the open market.

Arbitration-Eligibility

This is an area where the Padres appear to be ahead of the curve: plenty of cost-controlled, productive relievers all returning for 2026. Miller probably takes over closing duties for Suarez, and San Diego can keep its focus on acquiring/retaining rotation help.

Guaranteed Salary

The Padres have run the top of this group back for 3+ seasons, and its paid dividends for the most part. With so many starting pitching holes to fill this winter, will the front office be motivated to move a major bat?

Team Tax Projections

San Diego projects toward an Opening Day CBT payroll at $230M right now, $14M below the threshold. They’ll subtract as much as they’ll add this offseason, but it’s safe to say that the Padres are headed toward a repeater-tax situation for 2026.