SP Justin Steele
Age on Opening Day 2026: 30
Service Time: 4.1 years
2023 salary: League Minimum
2024 salary: $4,000,000
2025 salary: $6,500,000
2026 projected salary: $6,550,000

Background:
Justin Steele was drafted by the Chicago Cubs out of high school way back in 2014. A minor league career that was filled with promise and injuries, the left-handed pitcher wouldn’t establish himself as a core part of the Cubs until 2021. By 2022, he became an integral part of the rotation and one of the best left-handed pitchers in baseball. Only 14 starting pitchers in the league accrued more fWAR than Steele between 2022 and 2024, with Blake Snell, Tarik Skubal and Framber Valdez as the only southpaws to pick up more. 

2025 Season: 
The Cubs entered 2025 with high hopes of winning the division and making noise in the playoffs, and Justin Steele was supposed to be the anchor of the rotation. Sadly for the Cubs and for their starting pitcher, things did not go according to plan, as Steele missed, effectively, the entire season with an elbow issue. The positive for both sides is that while it was a partial tear of the UCL, a full Tommy John surgery was not needed and Steele could be back by Opening Day 2026 if things progress well. While there is still a full offseason to go, the lefty has recently just posted video of him getting back into a throwing routine, which can only be a good thing.

Cubs Depth at SP:

Summary:
Justin Steele, when healthy, is one of the best left-handed starting pitching options in the league. However, injuries are certainly something he has dealt with over his career. With a TJ surgery already under his belt, a muscle injury in 2024, and now a partial UCL tear, there is some concern in that area moving forward. The Cubs have two key starting pitchers with options—Colin Rea, which is a straight up “yes” or “no” team option, and a confusing set of decisions to be made regarding Shota Imanaga. Regardless of any of those choices, the Cubs will hope that they get the old Justin Steele back in 2026.

Why the Cubs should offer Justin Steele a contract: 
Left-handed pitchers who have been as good as Steele don’t just grow on trees. Yes, the injury was a bummer, but we are at a point in time where elbow injuries are not as devastating as they once were, with many pitchers coming back and reverting to their pre-injury forms in a matter of months. Steele didn’t even need a full reconstruction of his elbow, making his timeline even quicker. It’s unlikely that the Cubs will be able to find a pitcher with higher upside than Steele and his $6.5 million estimated price tag, and at age 30, he isn’t at an age where an imminent collapse is likely on the horizon.

Why the Cubs shouldn’t offer Justin Steele a contract: 
I can’t really find much of a reason as to why they wouldn’t. With others, such as Reese McGuire or Eli Morgan, I feel like I could make some sort of devil’s advocate argument, but short of his arm just falling off, the price of admission here is pretty tolerable. Steele’s medicals would have to be a pure disaster for the Cubs to deem $6.5 million too rich to bring back the lefty. 

Prediction: 
The Cubs tender Justin Steele and the two sides settle before arbitration on a contract. This is a no-brainer from both sides. Justin Steele just missed a full season and has something to prove, while the Cubs could potentially lose Shota Imanaga and Colin Rea, and Jameson Taillon has only one year left on his contract. Steele remains controllable past 2026 and has been incredibly effective on the North Side. 

I’m not sure exactly what to expect from the hurler, but my guess is that even if he doesn’t immediately find his groove, he’ll get back to being mostly the guy we’ve known. These types of procedures have gotten better and better, and it’s very common to see players come back. Matthew Boyd is a great example of this; he had a full TJ surgery just a few years ago, came back during the tail end of the 2024 season with Cleveland, and then made the All-Star team with the Cubs.

What do you think will happen?
Obviously, I think the Cubs will bring back Steele, but maybe there’s an argument to be made not to? Let me know if you see this in a different light!