Feb 25, 2025; Peoria, Arizona, USA; San Diego Padres first base Luis Arraez (4) bats against the Los Angeles Angels during the first inning at Peoria Sports Complex. Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
In his first full season with the Padres, Luis Arraez took his bat-to-ball skills to the extreme. When he the market this winter, Arraez’s one-of-one profile will finally associate itself with a specific dollar amount.
After serving as a pillar for the Padres’ torrid second half in 2024, Luis Arraez hoped to bring the same impact into 2025. He played in a new role, now batting second in the order behind Fernando Tatis Jr. Arraez played his first full season at first base, and his first full season in a Mike Shildt offense. Although the product may have felt underwhelming, Arraez truly reached the maximum of his contact capabilities. He set career lows in whiff rate and strikeout rate, leading the league in the latter category for the fourth straight year.
Unfortunately, Arraez broke his incredible streak of three-straight batting titles, as he finished with the fourth-best batting average in the NL. His .292 average was the lowest of his career to date, although he’s likely the only player who qualifies for such a narrative.
Hitless in first 16 at-bats
Although it would only cost him .008 points of his final batting line, Luis Arraez’s cold opening series wasn’t ideal. The Padres managed to sweep the Braves to open the season, but Luis Arraez didn’t share the hot start. It took him up until the sixth inning of the team’s fifth game of the season to get on the board.
However, Arraez’s struggles only dented into a rather impressive first month of play. He quickly flipped the script with five multi-hit games over the span of his next three series, including a four-hit afternoon against the Cubs. Combined with the early-season surge from Fernando Tatis Jr., Arraez’s efficiency was a major key to the Padres’ success. Specifically, in the contact aspect. Arraez effectively rekindled the hitting philosophy that carried San Diego the previous season
Arraez hit .355 in April, the highest of any month during the season. Perhaps the most impressive aspect was his three home runs. Arraez hit only four long balls across all of last year, so the sudden power came as a surprise to everyone. He put together a highly optimal .929 OPS, indicating value in his hitting profile.
Was only a matter of time for Luis Arraez to get his first 4-hit game of the season pic.twitter.com/Hv681ivj7u
— Talking Friars (@TalkingFriars) April 6, 2025
Zoning in on contact
Throughout the remainder of the season, Arraez regressed to a more reasonable output. He still maintained an average in the .280 range, but saw any supply of power production he had fade away. He posted a below-average OPS in May and June despite hitting well at .274 and .288. A question began to arise about whether or not Arraez deserved to bat second in the order simply because of his contact abilities.
In today’s day in age, OPS is the basic metric used to judge hitters. The days of going simply off of batting average and on-base percentage are firmly in the rearview mirror. The rapidly rising value of power in a player’s bat is a factor that clouds the outlook of Luis Arraez. While he’s easily the best bat-to-ball hitter in the MLB, a growing concern suggests that this could actually be a problem. With Arraez trading seemingly all aspects of his game for contact (bat speed, swing rate, whiff rate), it makes sense that he’s unable to produce anything more than singles and occasional down-the-line doubles.
Finishing out strong and hitting the market
Luis Arraez put a strong stamp on a rather down year at the plate with a great month of September. Arraez hit .352 with two home runs and a strong .828 OPS. to finish the year. Although he had a rough series in the Postseason, his final two weeks of play put the peak of his value on display— just at the right time.
Home Run
Luis Arraez
pic.twitter.com/46kqJ0PX7d
— Barstool Baseball (@StoolBaseball) April 2, 2025
Arraez is now a free agent, and his final contract will give clarity to the true value of pure contact hitting. The Padres are expected to be in the mix to re-sign him, but the negotiations will be more of a directional decision than a financial decision. Signing Luis Arraez means that your team in buying into contact hitting. Plain and simple. You can surround him with power everywhere, but he still serves as an “identity player.” For that reason, his free agency should be one of the most thrilling to follow, despite his lower profile.
Conclusion
Luis Arraez put together his worst season to date, but reached extreme heights of pure bat-to-ball skill. With free agency looming, the Padres will have their hands full deciding between Ryan O’Hearn and Arraez, who are both hitting the market. Regardless of what the Padres choose, the exact price of top-tier contact hitting will be released to the public this winter. If this was the last season of Luis Arraez in San Diego, Padres fans can at least appreciate the closest thing to the great Tony Gwynn that they’ll likely ever see.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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