Of course, there is still an upside play with Mahle. Not in terms of development like you might see with a progressing 24-year-old, but in terms of the upside of if he stays healthy. Sure, there is some pot-at-the-end-of-the-rainbow dreaming that is likely unrealistic, but the value of a full season of Mahle would far surpass the money he is going to get.
Considering he has pitched more than 130 innings only once in his career, and his past three seasons have had more time on the injured list than not, I doubt Mahle will get any significant term. In fact, a two-year deal might not even be on the table.
Free Agent Profile: Tyler Mahle
Age in 2026: 31
2025 Stats: 16 GS, 86.2 IP, 2.18 ERA, 3.37 FIP, 19.1% K%, 8.4% BB%
2025 Salary: $16.5 million (two-year $22 million contract)
Qualifying Offer Eligible:Â Yes
Contract Projection
Contract Length Expectation:Â 1-2 years
Expected AAV:Â $12-18 million
One thing we know is that teams love to roll the dice on one-year deals for talented players, injury history or not. Just last year, we saw the Tigers give $15 million to Alex Cobb and the Red Sox give $20 million to Walker Buehler, who were each coming off an injury. Neither deal worked out.
Most teams will use between eight and 12 starters throughout the season. Rotation depth has never been more important than it is now, with the number of pitching injuries on the rise. It has become common to go into spring training with more than five starters and let the chips fall as they may.
Injuries aren’t the only thing going up – the money is, too. Even back-end starters are approaching $15+ million a year, which should make taking a chance on Mahle, at a discount, attractive to so many teams.
Ultimately, I think Mahle’s deal falls somewhere around $15 million, or perhaps a little less, regardless of whether it’s for one or two years. Mahle would surely like some type of security, so a more creative deal with opt-outs could make sense, but I think it is not as likely.