Garion Thorne gives you a preview, prediction and pick for Game 6 of the World Series between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Toronto Blue Jays.
That’s baseball, Suzyn.
It’s a common refrain on baseball twitter or reddit. The concept that’s impossible to predict baseball, a sport where one man stands 60 feet away from another a hurls a round object at 95 mph or with an absurd amount of break.
The Dodgers were overwhelming favorites heading into the World Series. A super team constructed on millions and millions of dollars (some of it deferred decades away). Los Angeles had been 9-1 in the postseason with a starting rotation that read like an All-Star Game roster. Shohei Ohtani, the reigning NL MVP, had authored arguably the greatest individual performance in the sport’s history in Game 4 of the NLCS. Yet, here we are. Entering Game 6 in Toronto with the Blue Jays one win away from the franchise’s first championship since 1993.
That’s baseball, Suzyn.
Let’s preview what could be the final contest of the MLB season with the help of some of some odds and lines on the DraftKings Sportsbook.
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 6 prediction, preview
The main character for tonight’s Game 6? Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The Japanese-born ace was phenomenal in Game 2 in Toronto, tossing a complete game and allowing only four hits — one of which, a dropped Ernie Clement pop-up, that should have been scored an error. In fact, Yamamoto surrendered hits to the first two batters he faced that night, but then proceeded to work his way out of a jam with runners on first and third by striking out Vladimir Guerrero, inducing a soft line drive from Alejandro Kirk and striking out Daulton Varsho. It was a sign of things to come to say the least. In general, that’s who Yamamoto has been the past couple of months, save for a hiccup in Game 3 of the NLDS versus the Phillies. The RHP owns a sterling 1.57 ERA across 28.2 innings of work in the playoffs. In his final five starts of the regular season, Yamamoto conceded only three total runs over 34.0 innings, translating into a 0.79 ERA with a 36.1% strikeout rate. Considering how little Dave Roberts trusts his bullpen at the moment, Yamamoto again figures to be on the mound for quite some time this evening.
Opposing Yamamoto on the bump will be Kevin Gausman, who truly has the opportunity to establish himself as a Toronto sports legend on Friday night. The 34-year-old has had an interesting postseason so far, one that includes an inning of relief in Game 7 of the ALCS against the Mariners. While Gausman has pitched to a 2.55 ERA over 24.2 innings, he’s been heavily assisted by a .156 opponent BABIP and a 92.0% strand rate. Hence his 4.88 FIP across the same span, a figure which is not helped by the RHP’s underwhelming 18.9% strikeout rate. The funny thing about Gausman’s “luck” is that it has not actually resulted in many victories. Gausman did get the win in Game 1 of the ALDS versus the Yankees, but he’s since started losses in Game 1 and Game 5 of the ALCS and Game 2 of the World Series. The Blue Jays might be slashing a league-high .284/.350/.477 with an .827 OPS in the playoffs, yet very little of that run support has benefitted Gausman, as Toronto has been held to four total runs in those last three appearances combined. With the presence of Yamamoto, that’s a trend that isn’t likely to change.
However, Yamamoto’s run support is also a question mark, as the Dodgers have struggled to do much through the first five contests of this Fall Classic. In fact, if you remove Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles is hitting well below the Mendoza Line in the World Series. Mookie Betts is 3-for-23 (.130) with a -3 wRC+ in his 26 plate appearances, while Max Muncy is 3-for-20 (.150) with a putrid .225 expected wOBA. It’s been bad all around. Still, if there’s any reason to be optimistic, aside from the duo’s long track record of success at the MLB level, it’s that Betts and Muncy have fantastic career numbers against Gausman. Including his seventh inning home run in Game 2, Muncy has four long balls off the right-hander with a 1.481 OPS. Meanwhile, Betts squared off with Gausman a boatload back in his Boston days, with an .837 OPS in 54 at-bats.
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Game 6 pick, best bet
Best Bet: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 19.5 Outs Recorded (-105)
Yamamoto has thrown back-to-back complete games in the postseason. Los Angeles’ bullpen stinks and the Jays have been hyper-aggressive in the World Series with a 51.5% swing rate as a team. All this adds up to Yamamoto going deep.
Both Yamamoto and Gausman have been great at run prevention in these playoffs, and with the way the Dodgers are struggling with the bats, I’m not expecting a high scoring affair.