Expectations are a finicky thing when it comes to baseball prospects. Development is far from linear in this sport, and most players are one injury away from exiting the minds of prospect gurus. On the same note, some players are just one strong season away from emerging as Top 100 mainstays. It’s never been easy to fully know which side of the ledger a prospect will fall on, but it is easy to celebrate those who live up to the hype, and in some cases exceed it.
Here are five Red Sox prospects who exceeded expectations this season.
5) Blaze Jordan, 1B/3B, Portland/Worcester
Before being traded near the deadline to St. Louis for Steven Matz, Jordan was putting together a season that could have changed some future plans in Boston.
In 88 games, Jordan was performing as one of the best offensive players in the entire system, as he was hitting .308/.377/.495 with an OPS of .872. He also had 22 doubles, a triple, 12 home runs and 62 RBIs. Given that production, fans wondered if there was a chance he could have made it up to Boston by the end of the season.
What really stood out for Jordan was his increased ability to walk while lowering his strikeout rate. At the time of his promotion from Portland to Worcester, he was walking 12.5% of the time, a number that dropped in Worcester but was still higher than his usual career numbers. His strikeout rate was also the lowest of his career, sitting at just 10.4% with Worcester.
Defensively, he split time between first and third base, committing just one error at first in 42 games between Double-A and Triple-A. At third base he was even better, not committing a single error in 41 games between the two levels.
Of course, he now resides in the Cardinals’ system, and odds are Jordan will never wear a Red Sox uniform. Still, his first half is worth celebrating, even if he was traded for a rental reliever.
4) Hayden Mullins, SP, Greenville/Portland
Mullins, drafted in the 12th round of the 2022 MLB Draft, really broke out in 2025. After barely pitching in 2023 and then having an average season in 2024 with Greenville, Mullins started strong and continued to pitch well through the entire season.
Opening the season with Greenville, Mullins was not long for South Carolina as he pitched in four games, three of them starts, tossing 17 innings while allowing just two runs on 11 hits. Most impressively, he secured 27 strikeouts while walking just three batters.
Upon being promoted to Portland, his hot streak continued, as he started 18 games in Double-A and went 7-2. Across those 18 games, he wound up throwing 84 2/3 innings, allowing 26 runs, 23 of them earned, on 51 hits. He also struck out 96 batters and didn’t look bothered by the increased competition.
Mullins, who has long been viewed as a big league reliever, may have changed the narrative in 2025. He will be pitching in his age-25 season next year and will be eligible for the Rule 5 Draft this winter, so there is a chance a team could take a flier on him due to his fastball-slider combination having shown great bat-missing ability this season. Expect the Red Sox to protect him if they believe in his ability to stick as a starter as he climbs the ranks.
3) Connelly Early, SP, Portland/Worcester/Boston
To say Early exceeded expectations this season is an understatement. Opening the year with Portland, he would finish out the season by starting Game 3 of the Red Sox’s Wild Card series against the Yankees. While he didn’t get the win, the young left-hander pitched better than his final stat line would suggest.
Across the regular season, Early pitched in 25 games across three levels, making 18 starts. During his time in the minors, Early finished the year 10-3 with a 2.60 ERA in 100 1/3 innings while striking out 132 batters. While Early was viewed as a top pitching prospect with the Red Sox, no one quite expected him to make the jump to the majors and play such a key role in their playoff hopes.
With Boston, Early made four starts down the stretch as the Red Sox fought for a playoff spot. In those four starts, Early would toss 19 1/3 innings while allowing just six runs, five of them earned. More impressive for the southpaw were his 29 strikeouts to just four walks, a rather impressive display against the best hitters in the world.
With the rotation needing a few additions for next season, it would not be a surprise if Early opens 2026 as part of Alex Cora’s five-man group.
2) Payton Tolle, SP, Greenville/Portland/Worcester/Boston
It isn’t often a player advances four levels within one year. It’s even rarer for it to be a pitcher. Tolle managed to do that and all in just his second year focusing exclusively on just pitching, which is what makes it so impressive.
Drafted in the second round of the 2024 draft, the southpaw was immediately viewed as a top prospect by those within the organization and found himself ranked as a Top 100 prospect by May of 2025.
Tolle, who was on an innings limit by the end of the season, appeared in 20 minor league games and seven in the majors for a total of 27. Of those, he made 21 starts. During his time in the minors, Tolle impressed with his powerful fastball as he struck out 133 batters in just 91 2/3 innings. However, his secondaries lack polish and that was on display in the majors when he allowed 11 earned runs in just 16 1/3 innings, including five home runs. His ability to rack up strikeouts remained, though, as he notched 19 in that limited major league run.
Tolle will likely compete for a spot in the rotation during the 2026 spring training, though he is just as likely to open the year in Triple-A to work on his secondary offerings.
1) Yhoiker Fajardo, SP, Florida Complex League/Salem
Fajardo was a huge surprise for the farm system after getting him from the White Sox for Cam Booser. Despite being a Dominican Summer League All-Star in 2024, it’s hard to say anyone expected this performance from the right-hander in his stateside debut.
In six games in the FCL, Fajardo threw 20 2/3 innings and allowed just one earned run on nine hits. He also struck out 24 and walked seven in that same span before getting a promotion to Salem for the remainder of the season.
In 13 starts there, Fajardo continued to impress at the age of 18. In 51 1/3 innings, he allowed 21 runs, 17 of them earned, while also striking out 59 batters.
Fajardo is an interesting prospect thanks in part to already having a four-pitch mix that includes two secondary pitches in his changeup and slider that already look to be at least an average offerings. Both of his secondaries also showcase bat-missing ability that allows his two fastballs to work better.
To add to his pedigree this year, multiple scouts stated he was the best pitcher on the Red Sox FCL team in the 2025 season. Because of how well he handled the competition with Salem for a good portion of the campaign, it wouldn’t be out of the question to see a quick promotion to Greenville for the teenage phenom.
Interested in learning more about the Boston Red Sox’s top prospects? Check out our comprehensive top prospects list that includes up-to-date stats, articles and videos about every prospect, scouting reports, and more!