Only one pitcher in Major League Baseball, Houston’s Bryan Abreu (21.0) has pitched more postseason innings than Jose Alvarado (20.0) since 2022. During this three-year playoff run, no reliever has been more important or instrumental to the success the Phillies have had over the last three Octobers. This season, he has been their greatest late-inning weapon, the reliever in whom manager Rob Thomson has had the most trust, sometimes to the point of overuse. His 2.70 ERA and 1.84 FIP, 11.25 K/9 and 0.8 fWAR point to his effectiveness.

None of it matters now in the wake of Alvarado’s 80-game PED suspension and postseason ineligibility.

The Phils must come up with a new plan.

It’s more than a bummer. It’s a development that could mean the difference between hosting a parade down Broad Street, and not.

It will be the front office’s job to try and replace him as best they can, with a combination of in-house alterations and/or external additions. They almost certainly will be in the market for whatever high-end closers are available at the trade deadline, preferably for a top-notch, high leverage relief pitcher, and preferably one with experience closing games.

The ripple effects of the Alvarado suspension, as well as Mick Abel’s eye-opening start against Pittsburgh on Sunday, could mean several things as the front office tries to figure out what to do next.

Dombrowski More Motivated to Trade A Top Prospect?

No matter what happens, Dave Dombrowski is not dealing away Andrew Painter, but could this make them more amenable to moving their top position player prospect, Aidan Miller, for an elite closer like Ryan Helsley or Baltimore’s Felix Bautista?

The Phillies have four consensus top-100 prospects — Painter, Miller, Justin Crawford and Eduardo Tait. All of them are potential replacements for an aging roster that will need an infusion of young talent. Miller is slated to take over at shortstop as early as next year, with Trea Turner likely moving elsewhere on the diamond, or at third base if the team moves Alec Bohm in an off-season trade or after he leaves in free agency in 2026.

The Phillies desperately need outfield help. Max Kepler is back down to .318/.301/.371 on the season, hitting a meager .222/.316/.376 against right-handed pitching. Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas are what they are. Can they afford to trade their best outfield prospect in Crawford? And Eduardo Tait is a teenage catcher absolutely mashing in the low minors but could reach Reading by year’s end. With J.T. Realmuto’s time in Philly nearing an end, what’s the plan at catcher in two years if Tait is gone?

That being said, this may be Bryce Harper’s best chance at winning a World Series in Philadelphia. There have been three postseason trips and three trips without a title. This team is built to win right now. Can they really afford to clutch their prospects if a bona fide closer is available? Whereas they may have been less willing to do so before the Alvarado news, one would think they are more open to it now.

Moving Ranger Suarez to the Bullpen

Prior to the Alvarado news, the idea of moving Ranger Suarez to the bullpen seemed silly. The Phils had three solid left-handed options in Alvarado, Matt Strahm and Tanner Banks. Now, they’re suddenly thin in southpaws, as well as righties.

All that makes moving Suarez to the bullpen more sensible than it was a few days ago. Ranger would give the Phils another solid left-handed option in the late innings, and he has experience in the ‘pen, both in the regular season and postseason. Not only that, it’s likely Ranger will be in the bullpen for at least part of the playoffs, with teams needing only three starters for the wild card round and a fourth starter that may, or may not, be him thereafter.

The complication here is Suarez is in a contract year. Starting pitchers get paid a lot more than relievers, even really effective ones. While he would certainly do as he was asked, one can imagine the negative effect it could have on his motivation and psyche if he was told to move to the ‘pen. And if you don’t think these are things the front office and the manager consider when making these kinds of decisions, you’re not living in the real world.

After Abel’s performance Sunday and through his first six weeks at Lehigh Valley, as well as the arrival of Andrew Painter soon, the Phillies have good depth at starter. Moving Suarez to the bullpen perhaps prevents Dombrowski from having to deal away one of the top prospects mentioned above, too.

Moving Christopher Sanchez to the Bullpen

The left-handed starter that would come closest to replicating Alvarado’s swing-and-miss stuff is not Suarez. It’s Christopher Sanchez. With a fastball that sits in the mid-to-upper 90s and a wipe-out changeup that can generate so much swing-and-miss, transitioning him to the bullpen makes some sense as well.

Sanchez, however, has proven to be one of the best young left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Suarez is also pitching very well, but you don’t move an All Star starter to the bullpen. You just don’t.

Maybe in October in a special circumstance. But not in May.

Still, it’s on the table.

Moving Mick Abel to the Bullpen

What about moving Abel to the ‘pen? In his first MLB start, his fastball velocity was 2 mph faster (97.3 mph) than his AAA average (95.6 mph). He was clearly pumped up, and one wonders what his stuff would look like in short, one-inning bursts. Abel could potentially be a very effective relief pitcher this year.

Here’s the thing. He’s never done it before. Abel has pitched in 93 professional baseball games and been the starting pitcher in all 93. All 421.1 innings have been as a starter. He’s only ever known being a starter, and if Abel is finally starting to turn the corner and become that top-of-the-rotation starter most believed he would become when he was Baseball America’s No. 64 prospect prior to the 2024 season, what would transitioning him to the bullpen do for his development? And could he end up injuring himself by transforming his warmup routine and taxing himself in a different way?

Would it make more sense to use Abel as a trade chip for an established reliever rather than to make him a reliever just as he’s starting to put it all together?

And no, the Phillies aren’t making Andrew Painter a reliever, either.

Higher Leverage Moments for Existing Relievers

Suddenly, Tanner Banks is the team’s second-best left-handed option out of the bullpen. One would hope for better than a 4.35 ERA the rest of the way, although you like his .179/.233/.321 slash line against left-handed hitters. Restricting him to left-handers as often as possible is the wisest course. Matt Strahm has had a very strong season, with a 2.89 ERA and 1.91 FIP, but he’ll now be the team’s No. 1 lefty out of the ‘pen and get a bunch of save opportunities he didn’t have before.

Jordan Romano’s emergence has arrived just in time, with just one run allowed in his last 10 appearances and no runs allowed in his last eight. He struck out the side to secure the Phils’ 1-0 win on Sunday. He’ll need to repeat that performance more often now. Orion Kerkering’s uneven performance (4.08 ERA, 4.45 FIP) must turn around, and we’ll likely see Joe Ross (4.87 ERA, 4.42 FIP) and Jose Ruiz (4.76 ERA, 5.03 FIP) thrust into some additional high leverage situations, too. Right-hander Seth Johnson has a 3.38 ERA in nine relief appearances at Lehigh Valley (13/7 K/BB ratio).

Regardless, the Phillies are much weaker from the left-hand side now, and there are no internal options to help there.

If none of that makes you feel safe and secure, take solace in that Thomson and Dombrowski are feeling it with you.

It could be interesting to see what Taijuan Walker has to offer as a full-time reliever. With Aaron Nola out, the Phils could keep Mick Abel in the rotation and give themselves a longer look at both players in these roles, but the front office appears to want Walker in the rotation for Nola and Abel back in AAA, despite his success on Sunday.

No one could have predicted Alvarado’s 80-game suspension, but the Phillies were already feeling the effects of their unwillingness to add the additional high leverage relief pitcher they needed this off-season. The lack of that kind of replacement for one of Jeff Hoffman/Carlos Estevez is even more acute now.