The baseball season ended with a magnificent display of pitching, defense and unforgettable swings that make it impossible not to get a high off the state of the game.
Now it’s time to sober up and consider the state of the local team.
As the Texas Rangers head into the offseason, they do so with a slew of uncertainties. They have a new manager and a coaching staff still taking shape, a roster that has significant holes and an uncertain financial outlook. Boy, that World Series parade was fun, though.
So, let’s try to walk through the Rangers situation and we’ll try to play Chris Young and construct a 2026 roster. First step: Stand on a soap box. Second step: Get creative.
Rangers
All that’s been made clear about the Rangers’ situation is the offense needs work and the payroll, per ownership’s demand, will be downsized. What’s not as clear is whether the haircut will be merely a trim or more of a buzz. It butted up against the CBT threshold of $241 million in 2025.
Current estimations have them at around $143 million in long-term contract commitments. There is approximately $11.5 million tied up in pre-arbitration players and $19.7 million committed to benefits and the pre-arbitration bonus pool (commitments all MLB teams make). It comes to a little more than $174 million. Then come the nine potential arbitration cases that could add up to about $30 million, if the Rangers keep them all. Add it all up and you could get to around $204 million.
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Club officials have given no indication they’ve been handed a firm figure or range, though through the Ray Davis Era, projected payroll is often fuzzy. It begins with more austerity, but loosens up as spring training approaches and bargains are still available.
For the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume Davis asks for a payroll cut of 10% off the 2025 figure, a drop of about $24 million, which would put the Rangers in the $215 million range, with perhaps some flexibility to eventually get to $220 million. It leaves the Rangers with precious few dollars to fix the offense, find a starting pitcher and once again buy a pallet full of relievers on a Costco run.
With that in mind, let’s try to build a roster:
Creating additional flexibility
Before the Rangers can start to add any meaningful pieces, they have to create more financial flexibility. The first step in that process is acknowledging the difference between decline and underperformance. One poor year can be written off as underperformance. Consecutive significant offensive declines: A trend. It’s a trend they can’t bet against in 2026.
The Rangers have three everyday players who fall definitively into the bucket of decline with significant dropoffs both of the last two seasons. There were 22 players in the majors with at least 900 plate appearances, sub-.700 OPS and an OPS+ of 100 or less (league average) the last two seasons. The Rangers had three of them: Adolis García, Jonah Heim and Marcus Semien.
The good news here is that acknowledging the facts in front of them would also create the bulk of their additional flexibility. Both García and Heim are in the arbitration class and would carry about $16 million in projected salaries, making them relatively easy to non-tender and repurpose those dollars.
Semien is more complicated. While he is a Gold Glove-winning defender, his offense has declined and his right-handed pull swing doesn’t seem to profile for success at Globe Life Field. There are three years and $72 million ($26 million per year) remaining on the seven-year deal he signed ahead of 2022. To trade him would require the Rangers to pay a significant amount of the contract. How significant depends on the Rangers’ aim.
Do they simply want to save as much money as possible? They might be able to get somebody to take on $8 million-10 million a year of the deal, but with little to nothing in return. Want to potentially fill a hole, like one of the many in the bullpen? The savings probably fall to $5 million-6 million with the hopes of duplicating the return on the Nathaniel Lowe-for-Robert Garcia deal.
Willing to swing big and swap one deal that has turned bad for another, hoping a change of scenery sparks a renaissance? If so, the savings will probably dry up entirely. But maybe San Diego might talk about a framework that starts with Semien and something more for Jake Cronenworth and Yu Darvish, who combined will earn $28 million in 2026. Cronenworth could replace Semien at second; Darvish, who would have to waive no-trade protection, might give the Rangers some rotation depth.
For our purposes, we’ll pursue the middle ground. We’ll eat $19 million per year in exchange for a controllable right-handed reliever with some velocity and swing and miss ability. We will plan to give Josh Smith regular playing time at second and supplement him with a right-handed hitter such as Ezequiel Duran, Cody Freeman or Michael Helman.
In doing this, it creates approximately $20 million more in payroll flexibility. We have $31 million to play with, give or take a million.
More drastic cuts
What still isn’t clear is how the Rangers’ foray into owning their own regional sports network did financially and how much impact it will have on the payroll. In the event Davis demands a deeper cut, it would all but force the Rangers to trade Corey Seager ($32.5 million) or Jacob deGrom ($37 million). At that point, a path to contention would still potentially be viable, but it would be hard to make a case for the Rangers entering the season as legitimate contenders.
Either would bring a legitimate return that could help the Rangers turn the ship toward more youth, controllability and allow for flexibility after the next CBA is negotiated after the 2026 season. DeGrom, the AL Comeback Player of the Year, has restored value after a long stretch of injury-shortened seasons. It would be a sell-high play. The issue is a full no-trade clause that would probably limit the market to teams in close proximity to his offseason home in DeLand, Fla.
The most viable of those is Atlanta. Could the Braves be interested in swapping Spencer Strider for deGrom? Strider is coming off a subpar season following elbow surgery, which is a pool the Rangers love to plunder. He’s due $69 million in guaranteed money through 2028; deGrom $75 million through 2027. There is a way to make the money wash and still net the Rangers a savings on the annual payroll value that could net them upwards of another $10 million.
There may be a larger market for Seager, who has only limited no-trade protection and could not veto a deal to the Yankees or Red Sox. And it’s always good to get both those teams in the bidding. Both have young, promising and controllable shortstops: Anthony Volpe (Yankees) and Marcelo Mayer (Boston). Mayer has more value at the moment because Volpe has yet to produce a .700 OPS in three seasons in his early 20s, but the Yankees might be better able to supplement the deal to help fill other Rangers needs, like at catcher with either Austin Wells or Ben Rice and with another pitching arm.
We are going to try to maximize deGrom’s comeback season and get Strider from Atlanta 1-for-1 with the Rangers sending an additional $3 million to Atlanta to even the total finances. For the Rangers, it would net about $13 million in additional savings. We’ve now trimmed over $40 million.
The trade market
Before diving into this, we should start with a basic economic principle of trade, which is a “voluntary exchange to achieve mutual gains.” The key word here being “mutual.”
It’s about supply and demand.
There is now a need for a front-line catcher. There could be some promising controllable names potentially available such as Baltimore’s Adley Rutschman or Dodgers rookie Dalton Rushing, who is blocked by Will Smith. So there is supply. Know what the demand would be? In all likelihood: Sebastian Walcott.
Rushing began the 2025 season as the No. 22 prospect in baseball and advanced to No. 15 before he was called up. Walcott ended the 2025 season ranked No. 6 in baseball. That he plays shortstop and that he was a teenager both factored into that ranking. If he moves to right field, where he is projected to end up, his spot will slip a bit. And as he gets into his 20s, he can’t simply succeed at levels — he must dominate. His value is probably at its peak at the moment.
He’s also the only position player prospect capable of front-lining a significant deal. The Rangers are thin on position players. Devin Fitz-Gerald is rising, but he’s only played 41 professional games. Hard to think he could headline a deal for a position player. The Rangers do have some depth among pitching prospects, but not top-100-type talent. Walcott is their best and potentially only real chip.
Would Walcott blossom into a Wilyer Abreu-type of hitter or better in right? Though he won’t be ready for the majors to start the year, he might be by midseason and could then fill a long-term hole for the Rangers in the outfield. On the other hand, Alejandro Osuna has a chance to be an everyday outfielder, but the Rangers don’t have anybody remotely close to being an everyday catcher.
At the moment, we are holding Walcott and we’ll try to fill catcher in free agency. We can platoon Osuna with Michael Hellman or Sam Haggerty or a veteran free agent with more of a track record in right field. And if it doesn’t work, hopefully Walcott will be banging on the door by July.
Free agency
So, we’re entering the free agent market with about $43 million to spread around on a catcher, starting rotation depth and a bushel of bullpen arms.
The most attractive, affordable catcher on the market will be Victor Caratini, who had a .728 OPS for Houston in 366 plate appearances in 2025. Though his walk numbers were down in 2025, he’s averaged an 8.4% walk rate for his career; it’s not great, but, trust us, among this field of catchers, it stands out.
Caratini, 32, is probably going to merit a deal similar to the 2-year, $13.5 million deal Kyle Higashioka signed with the Rangers. Let’s call it $7 million per year. It probably leaves the Rangers a bit short on playing time, so they need to be aggressive on minor league deals for veterans and potentially open to using Freeman to catch occasionally. If they get 75 starts from Higashioka, 65 from Caratini and 20 from Freeman, they can squeeze out a full year’s worth of games.
It’s on to the bullpen, where only Robert Garcia, Jacob Webb and Cole Winn can be considered locks. There should be mutual interest, however, with free agents Hoby Milner, Danny Coulombe and Phil Maton, which should eat up about $12 million of the remaining money. There is interest in Shawn Armstrong, too, but he could jump to $5 million per year as he rolls into his age-35 season. Re-sign him and you are still searching for a closer.
There might be one scenario where you could get both Armstrong and a closer: If the choice is Devin Williams, coming off a down year in New York. From 2020-24, Williams posted a 1.70 ERA, averaged 14 strikeouts per nine innings and converted 68 saves despite closing for the equivalent of two full seasons. He made $8.6 million in 2025. Would he take a one-year deal worth $10 million in base money with some significant performance bonus clauses? If the Rangers can land Williams and Armstrong for $15 million, it pushes our payroll to about $185 million.
From here, the Rangers could do what they do so well, which is to plumb the mid-tier starter market for smart short-term investments. They could try to bring Tyler Mahle or Merrill Kelly back in the range of $15 million per year or bet on guys like Adrian Houser and Zack Littell, who both established themselves as mid-rotation starters with other clubs this year. The Rangers might not have the extra dollars to roll the dice on a comeback candidate, but Justin’s Dustin May might be worth a chance.
The last thing to do is to reinforce the outfield. Evan Carter’s injury history remains a concern. So is his lopsided platoon split that comes up short against left-handed pitching. The Rangers must have the same platoon split concerns on Osuna. It all screams for a fairly accomplished right-handed hitter who thrives against lefties. And one who could be had for around $5 million. There is a group of guys that includes Miguel Andujar, Austin Hays, Rob Refsnyder, Lane Thomas and maybe even Mark Canha, who might fit the bill. It would allow for Helman to become more of an insurance policy and to play on Haggerty with an aggressive non-roster type of deal.
All that done, it leaves us at around $205 million. Potentially leaves a little room for negotiating a long-term deal with Wyatt Langford that would bump his salary in 2026 and maybe even do a little bargain hunting in spring training to potentially address any issues that arise.
Projected 2026 rosterPositionPlayerCatcherKyle HigashiokaVictor CaratiniInfielderJake BurgerJosh SmithCorey SeagerJosh JungEzequiel Duran Cody FreemanOutfielders/DHWyatt LangfordEvan CarterAlejandro OsunaMiguel AndujarJoc PedersonStarting pitching rotationSpencer StriderNathan EovaldiMerrill KellyJack LeiterJake LatzBullpenDevin WilliamsShawn ArmstrongCole WinnRobert GarciaJacob WebbHoby MilnerPhil MatonDanny Coulombe
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