CLEVELAND — The offseason has officially arrived, and in Cleveland, that means a bunch of spendi— err, snow — is on the horizon. That means it’s time, eventually, for the resolution of the sports betting investigation that has loomed over the organization since early July. That means it’s time for the Guardians to find their own Ernie Clement to steer them through the postseason. That means only about three more months until pitchers and catchers report to Goodyear, Ariz., for the dawn of a new season.
Until then, it’s just you, me and the hot stove. Here’s a sneak peek at the winter ahead for the Guardians:
Part 1: John Means, yay or nay?
The Guardians have until the end of the week to decide on Means’ $6 million club option for 2026. They spent the year guiding him along his rehab from a second Tommy John surgery. Since the team’s six-man rotation in September worked wonders, the Guardians didn’t have space for Means to make a couple of starts for them, but they watched plenty of his bullpen sessions at Progressive Field over the final month. Cleveland’s decision-makers will tell you it’d be naive to assume all six of those starters will avoid hiccups and/or injuries next season. Starting pitching depth is an illusion. But can they count on Means?
On the financial side, the Guardians have only about $30 million committed for next year (to José Ramírez, Tanner Bibee and Trevor Stephan, plus a $2.75 million check to former Cleveland executive Mark Shapiro to cover part of Myles Straw’s contract). They could dole out another $10-20 million in arbitration. Everyone else is on a league-minimum deal, or thereabouts. So, there’s room for Means’ salary, if they liked what they saw from his stuff. They certainly enjoyed having him around the major-league clubhouse, for whatever that’s worth. His seven rehab outings were a mixed bag, unsurprising for someone who has barely pitched since 2021.
The Guardians could also exercise the option and gauge his trade market. Means, 32, owns a 3.68 ERA in his career, but he has totaled 52 1/3 big-league innings the last four years.
There will be a bunch of roster shuffling in the coming weeks for the Guardians. (Nick Cammett / Getty Images)
Part 2: The coaching carousel
Let’s start at the top: Stephen Vogt signed a three-year deal with the Guardians before the 2024 season. That would mean the 2026 season is a contract year for him. It won’t be, though. He’ll have a new deal. In fact, he might already have it. As one person with knowledge of the situation put it: Vogt will be in Cleveland for a long time. Don’t worry about his future.
The rest of his staff, however, is undergoing some remodeling.
Carl Willis will be back, which is important since he invented pitching. It’s doubly important from a continuity standpoint, since Vogt lost lieutenants Craig Albernaz and Kai Correa. It was refreshing at the end of the year to hear Willis describe the little joys he still finds in coaching players young enough to be his grandkids. Even after presiding over five Cy Young Award winners and after 30 years of instruction, dating to his days teaching a teenaged CC Sabathia about off-speed pitches in Burlington, N.C., Willis is still passionate about the craft. He’s quick to note, too, that in his role, a steady dose of stress accompanies the thrill of watching pitchers bloom. That’s why he’s living out the twilight of his career one year at a time.
Had Correa not joined the New York Mets, perhaps he would have become Vogt’s bench coach after spending one year as Cleveland’s field coordinator and then adding director of defense, baserunning and game strategy to his title. There might not be a hotter seat under a manager than the one Carlos Mendoza will occupy to start next year, so maybe Correa spotted a path to managing in New York, whereas in Cleveland, Vogt’s job is clearly safe.
Albernaz, who flirted with the Chicago White Sox and Miami Marlins last winter, tied the knot with the Baltimore Orioles last week. He and Vogt were like brothers. They bickered. They argued. They challenged each other. They trusted and respected each other. As Austin Hedges once put it: “They love each other a lot. And they talk a lot of trash to each other.” That’ll be a tough position to fill. The Guardians plan to hire two staff members to replace Correa and Albernaz, and they’re considering internal and external candidates.
Part 3: Roster housekeeping
The Guardians’ 40-man roster has 43 names on it — sort of. The list includes five players who were on the 60-day injured list: Means, Sam Hentges, Ben Lively, Andrew Walters and Will Brennan. There is no injured list during the offseason, so the Guardians need to clear some space. Means will only occupy a spot if the Guardians exercise his option. Hentges, Lively and Brennan are all eligible for arbitration. The Guardians could keep them or non-tender them, making them free agents.
The non-tender deadline is Nov. 21, and there are five other players eligible for arbitration: Steven Kwan, Matt Festa, Kolby Allard, David Fry and Nolan Jones. MLB Trade Rumors projects the eight total arbitration-eligible players to command just shy of $20 million, led by Kwan’s $8.8 million.
By Nov. 18, all teams must add to the 40-man roster any eligible prospects they don’t want plucked from their organizations during the Rule 5 Draft. Among the Cleveland players who are eligible to be selected: pitchers Yorman Gómez, Dylan DeLucia, Austin Peterson, Trenton Denholm, Ryan Webb and Steven Perez, and position players Angel Genao, Kody Huff, Milan Tolentino, Wuilfredo Antunez and Kahlil Watson. The Rule 5 Draft will be held on Dec. 10 in Orlando, Fla., during the annual Winter Meetings.
In simple terms: There will be a bunch of roster shuffling in the coming weeks. The Guardians will sever ties with at least a handful of players to clear space for injured players, recovering players and prospects, or simply because they don’t want to pay a particular arbitration-eligible player. And, of course, if they want to add any external players this winter, they’ll need to make room for them, too.
Part 4: Where are we at with that investigation anyway?
The Guardians are proceeding as if they no longer employ Emmanuel Clase and Luis Ortiz. If the two pitchers are banned from Major League Baseball, the club will rid itself of Clase’s $6.4 million salary for 2026. Ortiz has yet to reach the arbitration stage. Even if the two are somehow exonerated — I have yet to speak with anyone who surmises that’s likely — the team has all but moved on. It’s hard to envision any scenario in which they waltz back into the clubhouse in Goodyear in February. It would be … awkward. But, that’s a conversation for another day, if that day ever arrives. The team figured there wouldn’t be any announcement during the postseason, but they’d sure welcome some clarity soon.
Part 5: The hot stove
In Cleveland, the stove is more tepid than hot. The Guardians already re-signed Hedges, an annual rite of winter at this point. Lane Thomas and Jakob Junis are their other free agents.
Heading into last offseason, the Guardians worried about the state of their starting pitching. They re-signed Shane Bieber, added Ortiz and Slade Cecconi and made a hard push for Nick Pivetta, who signed with the San Diego Padres. They have similar unease this winter about their offense. It might have something to do with them outranking only the Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates in runs. Chase DeLauter, George Valera, Juan Brito and Travis Bazzana could all force their way into the lineup next season, but the Guardians have been candid in admitting they need help from the outside, too, especially given that group’s injury history.
They’re on the prowl for reinforcements in the outfield and bullpen. Specifically, they could use a right-handed stick or two and a high-leverage arm. What they don’t want is to travel down the path of retreads (a familiar route for them) and sign another Eddie Rosario or Domingo Santana to block their young hitters. A complementary bat to partner with those rookies makes more sense, or a proven, unquestioned hitter who isn’t graying beneath his helmet. That’s all great, but the Guardians aren’t ones to make free-agent splashes, and that’s especially the case with a potential work stoppage clouding everything after the 2026 season. So, it’s either a short-term partnership, which limits their free-agent shopping, or it’s a trade. If they keep the payroll in the $90-100 million range they’ve maintained in recent years, they could have $25-45 million in flexibility, so perhaps a free agent will fall into their lap, the way Pete Alonso settled for a one-year deal with the New York Mets last winter.