If we think we know what the Boston Red Sox are going to do this winter, we may just be setting ourselves up for more shock.

For most of the past year, the Red Sox zigged when most thought they would zag. The Rafael Devers trade was the most obvious example, but the statement could even be applied to acquiring Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman or to barely acquiring anyone at the trade deadline.

There is a strong belief that the Red Sox will trade an outfielder this winter, and the logic behind such a move makes sense. But we shouldn’t get caught assuming we know who that outfielder is going to be.

Ceddanne Rafaela

Sep 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Boston Red Sox outfielder Ceddanne Rafaela (3) fields the ball during the second inning at Chase Field. Mandatory Credit: Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images / Arianna Grainey-Imagn Images

On Monday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive predicted that Boston would move on from center fielder Ceddanne Rafaela, though the prevailing guess among most Red Sox circles has been that left fielder Jarren Duran would be moved as well.

“My hot take of the winter is that the Red Sox are going to find Duran’s value to be lower than they expect and Rafaela’s to be much higher than expected across the game,” Cotillo wrote. “Therefore, headlining a trade package with Rafaela — most teams won’t balk at the six years and $48 million (plus a club option) he’s guaranteed — can’t be ruled out.

“Trading the Gold Glover is not Plan A for the Sox but would allow a (left-to-right) outfield of Anthony, Duran (who is better in center than left) and Abreu with someone like Schwarber getting a full load of DH at-bats.”

Ironically enough, Rafaela was announced as the American League Gold Glove winner in center field on Sunday night, and Red Sox right fielder Wilyer Abreu took home the award at his position as well. If the Red Sox were to move on from him, it would be because they’re not confident his bat will ever become consistent enough to make him an All-Star contributor.

To some degree, this all depends on what the market looks like for every individual, as Cotillo suggests. But it would still be a pretty major shock to see Rafaela, who is one of the most valuable defenders in the sport, get traded at age 25.

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