Hours after Bo Bichette had his biggest moment ever in a Toronto Blue Jays uniform, he had to reconcile the idea that he might not don that uniform again.

Bichette’s three-run home run put the Blue Jays up 3-0 in Game 7 of the World Series, but the Los Angeles Dodgers chipped away until they secured a 5-4 win in 11 innings. It was a gut-wrenching end for every Toronto player, but especially for Bichette, who has been in the organization since the 2016 Major League Baseball Draft.

Though Bichette has emphasized how much he wants to stay in Toronto, he won’t just take any old contract to do so. He’s 27, in the prime of his career, and though there’s lots of speculation that he will have to move from shortstop to either second base or third base on his next contract, his hitting prowess is unmistakable.

So what sort of contract will it take for Bichette to either remain a Blue Jay, or choose a new landing spot? One recent projection sticks out like a sore thumb.

On Thursday, ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel projected Bichette to sign a five-year, $130 million deal this winter. Most other projections have had him approaching or clearing $200 million this winter, so those figures stick out as being low both in dollars and years.

“His defensive contributions (though a position change addresses that), his durability and his 2024 offensive showing might make some pause, but Bichette has a solid track record with real upside,” wrote McDaniel. “There’s a case he should make more than Marcus Semien’s seven-year, $175 million deal from 2022.

“There’s also a chance Bichette’s market takes a turn similar to Bregman’s last winter, toward a shorter term with opt-outs (two or three years, roughly a $30 million AAV) if he doesn’t get the giant guarantee he’s looking for.”

To summarize those last two paragraphs, it seems as though no one really knows what to expect from Bichette’s market at the moment. He’s a two-time All-Star with the talent to lead the league in hits every season, and he’s still very young at 27. On the flip side, he’s had costly injuries in each of the last two seasons, and he’s unlikely to ever be a full-time shortstop again.

If a five-year commitment is truly all it takes, it’s hard to see the Blue Jays letting Bichette leave. But if the deal is shorter or longer, the presence of other teams in the bidding war becomes an X-factor.

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