Hello and welcome to Pitcher List’s latest series: Using PLA to Evaluate Pitchers! Every week, I will examine various pitchers and break them down using PLA. There will be various themes and topics each week, which will range from topics such as waiver wire picks, to buy or sell, to awards races, to lefties/righties only etc. I hope to mix it up as much as possible to keep you all on your toes.

Now, you might be asking, what is PLA?

PLA is an ERA estimator that was created in tandem with Pitch Level Value, which we refer to as PLV. PLV is essentially an all-encompassing stat that measures individual pitches and rates them on a 0-10 scale. The elements that factor into PLV include velocity, movement, release point, location, count, and handedness of batter. We have an excellent primer on this by the one and only Nick Pollack that you can find right here! PLA takes this 0-10 score and translates it to an estimated ERA, which makes it easier to understand and more useful for those looking for help with their fantasy teams.

It’s important to note that PLA isn’t necessarily a catch-all estimator, just as xERA, FIP, SIERA, and pCRA aren’t either. These stats ultimately still measure outcomes, which are largely dependent on how a player is executing that day. ERA estimators are not crystal balls, however, they can provide some insight if taken with a grain of salt. For the purpose of this series, we are going to use PLA as the main factor to evaluate pitchers (hence the series title), but again, no stat is perfect, especially in the complex world of pitching.

Also, stay tuned for other PLV evaluation article series, such as one that will look at individual pitches and another that will use Process+ to evaluate hitters!

This week, we will be looking at some of the hot and cold guys, the “cherry bombs” as our fearless leader would call them. He may also call some of these arms HIPSTERs (Headache Inducing Pitchers Stifling The Entire Roster), though I would say that these are more of the premium guys in that category.

(Also, if a pitcher you want to see analyzed isn’t on here, that’s okay! We will have plenty of chances to talk about other pitchers and this won’t be the only analyzing cherry bombs edition of this series. So stay tuned!)

 

Shane Baz – 3.93 PLA

 

It’s been a bit of an up-and-down season for Shane Baz, who has had starts that have made him look like the best in the business and others that make you question whether he’s MLB-calibre.

The problem for Baz this year? The slider. He was known to have a “destroyer of worlds” slider in the minors, as it got whiffs at an elite rate and paired well with one of the best fastballs of any prospect. Unfortunately, after returning from Tommy John surgery, Baz hasn’t seen much success with the pitch, as he hangs it routinely, which is why he’s had these blowup starts. The rest of his arsenal has looked awesome, as the four-seamer still has solid shape and great velocity, while the curveball has shown flashes of being one of the best in the Majors. Unfortunately, some recent starts have led to the curveball’s PLV readings going down significantly, as he has had some starts where he hasn’t known where the pitch was going upon it leaving his hands.

 

Ryan Pepiot – 3.01 PLA

 

Ryan Pepiot is perhaps the poster child for PLA. If you love the stat, you love what he brings on the mound, even if the regular results haven’t been amazing.

Pepiot’s high PLA is a product of PLV loving his individual pitches. Despite not having the highest strikeout rate, his stuff can be disgusting, as long as he locates it well. His four-seam fastball needs little introduction, as while it is more of a mid-90s pitch instead of a high-90s offering, it has elite vertical movement and a fairly flat attack angle that makes it a swing-and-miss pitch. The changeup is also incredible, at least as long as it’s located down, as it has excellent movement and pairs well with the fastball. Pepiot also throws three other pitches: a slider, cutter, and curveball. The slider and cutter, in particular, have shown the ability to take over games, but Pepiot struggles to consistently locate these.

Still, Pepiot has three offerings with a PLV over 5.30, which is seriously impressive and is why his PLA is so low.

 

Max Meyer – 3.40 PLA

 

It’s felt like a long time since that Max Meyer 14-strikeout outing against the Reds. He was dominant then, and many thought it would stick. Sadly, he’s proven himself to be a hot-and-cold pitcher, which is unfortunate, especially for all of us looking for the breakout.

With that said, there is plenty to be optimistic about with Meyer. If you look at PLA, you will quickly realize that he’s in a better spot than many of these other cherry bomb/HIPSTER-type arms, though many who apply other stats would probably disagree. Meyer’s PLA is bolstered by his slider, which PLV loves. It’s a 90mph offering that gets tons of swinging strikes, so much so that it is his primary pitch. On the flip side, his four-seam fastball has not been pretty, as it has one of the worst PLV marks of any heater from a relevant pitcher, especially one who has pumped 95/96 in some of his outings.

 

Dylan Cease – 3.83 PLA

 

What do we do with Dylan Cease? That is the question that many have been asking for years, as he’s been the prototypical “cherry bomb”, looking like a top-of-the-line Cy Young candidate ace half the time, and looking like a 5 ERA guy the other half of the time. So what gives?

The reality is, Cease’s ceiling will never make him a drop-worthy arm. PLA shows this, though his numbers portray more of an SP3/4 type for your roster rather than your first guy off the board. Part of the issue for Cease is the fact that he is essentially a two-pitch guy, as his slider and four-seam fastball are elite, but his changeup/curveball/sinker are barely used for a reason. As long as he struggles to make anything out of these pitches, his PLA will probably sit around the high 3/low 4 range, especially with his command that can be brutal against lefties.

 

Sandy Alcantara – 4.99 PLA

 

Youch! It’s been a bit rough for Sandy Alcantara since returning from his long Tommy-John hiatus. PLA showcases this, as it paints a picture of a pitcher who is unfortunately struggling quite a bit. Based on PLA, Alcantara is no longer an ace or even particularly close, as the stat projects him as being a pitcher in the streaming/waiver wire tier. We know this isn’t true… Right?

The thing you can say in Sandy’s favor is that PLA is a measure that ultimately takes into account the pitch modeling stats of past performance. Like other ERA estimators, it is and should be used primarily as a predictive stat, but it doesn’t measure future performance per se. This means that, while yes, if Sandy were to continue to pitch the way he has, he likely would have an ERA around 5. However, he’s coming off an injury and will continue to regain some semblance of his command and control.

It’s also worth noting that his PLA is indeed lower than his actual ERA, which seemingly indicates that he’s pitching better than the results are saying, though “better” is still far from where we want to be.

Gavin Williams – 5.48 PLA

 

It was difficult to find Gavin Williams on the PLA leaderboard, as unfortunately, one has to scroll down far to find him. This really sucks, as Williams really looked to be one of the true breakout candidates of the year. This can still happen, as it’s early in the season, but Williams has been hard to watch at points, and PLA would agree.

Williams has struggled a lot with control, as while he does get strikeouts, he issues a lot of walks. This has been a problem in the past, but this is a significant jump in walk rate. His four-seam fastball is his main offering, as it looks elite in terms of velocity and extension. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to do too much with it, as he, at times, will struggle with its location, which hurts his PLV. His secondaries need work, as he relies on his four-seamer over half the time. He has a sweeper that PLV likes somewhat, but his curveball has atrocious numbers. He does have a cutter that is loved by PLV, though it rarely sees the light of day.

If you believe in PLA and are holding Gavin Williams, it might be time to move on. He has so much potential, but his shaky command and lack of quality secondaries are starting to make him look like a bit of a bust instead of the breakout candidate that you all were expecting.

 

Jackson Jobe – 4.76 PLA

 

It’s been a somewhat tough debut season for Jackson Jobe, who was viewed as the best pitching prospect in baseball entering this year. The hype was unreal, with comparisons made to even Paul Skenes. Obviously, with what Skenes has done, it would be incredibly hard for Jobe to even show a fraction of that, but still, we can’t help but feel that Jobe has been a bit disappointing.

Jobe has a pretty deep arsenal, though none of the pitches have quite stood out like he’d hoped. His four-seam fastball, while great in terms of shape and velocity, has taken a hit in the PLV column due to his inability to locate it. His zone rate is awful compared to many other four-seamers, which has led to putrid strike rates and a lack of swings on the pitch in general. PLV likes his slider a ton, though it lacks the swing-and-miss of other offerings with a similar grade. The change, sinker, and curve are all well below average in terms of PLV, which contributes to his inflated PLA.

 

José Berríos – 3.14 PLA

 

Of all of the pitchers we’ve spoken about in this series so far, José Berríos has presented the greatest surprise.

Berrios, for the last few years, has been pretty inconsistent and spotty, capable of giving us incredible outings and also ones that make you want to drop him immediately. The key with Berrios for quite some time has been the volume, as whether he’s performing well or poorly, you can always expect him to eat innings and thus give you a chance for the win or the quality start.

Interestingly enough, most of Berrios’ five-pitch arsenal grades out rather poorly by PLV. The key to his success? That classic, GIF-able curveball that was his primary offering once upon a time. This pitch has incredible PLV numbers, some of the very best of any curveball. This is interesting, as none of his result-based rate stats on the pitch are particularly elite. This could perhaps be attributed to the way the pitch plays with the rest of his arsenal or just bad luck. Either way, this pitch is a PLV outlier, which is the reason why PLA loves Berrios.

 

Tylor Megill – 4.30 PLA

 

Despite having pretty dominant stuff at times, Tylor Megill has not been pretty this season, at least according to PLA.

This looked to be the year that Megill really broke out. He had some incredible starts early on and the pitch mix, combined with the command, showed us a guy who was essentially a new pitcher. This has slipped a bit, as his command has been incredibly erratic, which is reflected by his PLV metrics.

The key to Megill’s stuff is his incredible extension at 7.2 feet. This allows for his fastballs to appear faster out of the hand, and it helps him tunnel his pitches better. This doesn’t matter as much, though, when he doesn’t know where the pitch is going out of his hand, which it has unfortunately felt like that’s been the case in many of his starts this year.

 

Robbie Ray – 4.41 PLA

 

Since the return of Robbie Ray last season, he’s seen plenty of hype and scrutiny around him. In some starts, he’s looked like a Cy Young contender, while in others, he’s given us nasty blowups that have made everybody question his value deep into the season.

PLA projects Ray as a fairly middling pitcher, which dispels the notions of him either being an elite-of-the-elite guy or a bottom-of-the-barrel pitcher. PLV likes his fastball, but gives a below-average grade to all of his secondaries. The new Tarik Skubal-inspired changeup, in particular, has been rough, as Ray continues to struggle to locate the pitch.

Something that is important to note is that PLV has never been the biggest fan of Robbie Ray. If you look at his Cy Young season, it graded his high-whiff slider pretty poorly. It’s stuff like this that’s important to look at with pitch modeling stats and estimators, as while they tend to be more accurate than just looking at previous performance, they can be in and out on certain pitchers/pitches despite results not necessarily indicating that the metrics are accurate, at least regarding said pitcher/pitch. Though Ray’s below-average PLA still makes sense, as the stuff he’s thrown outside of his two-pitch mix has not looked amazing.