CLEVELAND, Ohio — The American League MVP race has narrowed to what might be the most compelling two-man battle in recent memory. In one corner stands Yankees slugger Aaron Judge with his consistent excellence; in the other, Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh with his historic, position-redefining season.

Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast hosts Joe Noga and Paul Hoynes recently dove into this debate, offering fascinating insights into what could be one of the tightest MVP votes ever.

The numbers tell a story of two different types of dominance. As Noga outlined on the podcast, “Judge with 53 home runs, led the American League in runs with 137 and 124 walks. This is a guy who’s just an all-around hitter. Probably one of the best hitters in baseball this past season.”

But what makes this race so fascinating is Raleigh’s unprecedented performance from baseball’s most demanding position.

“Raleigh did something that, that nobody’s ever done as a catcher. He led baseball with 60 home runs and had 125 RBIs to lead the American League,” Noga emphasized, highlighting just how historic the Mariners backstop’s season truly was.

The podcast conversation quickly turned to what might separate these two statistical giants in voters’ minds. For Hoynes, it’s about recognizing the rarity of Raleigh’s achievement versus Judge’s expected excellence.

“I would pick Raleigh because I think this was a once in a career performance. Judge, it seems like he could crank this season out every year after year,” Hoynes argued, suggesting that voters might lean toward acknowledging a singular achievement rather than rewarding repeatable excellence.

What makes this debate particularly fascinating is the added physical toll that catching takes on a player. As Noga pointed out, “You have to factor in the fact that Raleigh is doing this on a daily basis while he’s getting dinged with foul balls and blocking balls in the dirt and playing Platinum Glove level defense behind the plate. To me in my mind, that is the separator.”

The podcast hosts noted that current and former catchers have been particularly vocal about Raleigh’s case. Having spoken with Austin Hedges and Stephen Vogt, Noga revealed that those who have experienced the physical demands of catching firsthand believe Raleigh’s offensive production while managing the defensive responsibilities of the position elevates his case substantially.

Hoynes acknowledged that the catching position brings additional responsibilities beyond just the physical toll: “He’s working with the pitching staff. He’s going over the scouting reports. Every team asks a lot of their starting catchers these days. So there’s that added responsibility.”

While both hosts seemed to favor Raleigh’s case, they acknowledged the difficulty of looking past Judge’s statistical dominance. The Yankees slugger posted a batting average over .330, an on-base percentage over .430, and a slugging percentage approaching .700 — numbers that typically make for an automatic MVP selection.

As the podcast made clear, this isn’t just a debate about numbers — it’s about how we value different types of excellence in baseball. Is a season that redefines what’s possible from the catching position more valuable than the continued dominance of one of the game’s greatest hitters?

Tune in to the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast to hear Noga and Hoynes break down this fascinating MVP race in greater detail, including their insights on José Ramírez’s likely third-place finish and whether voters will ultimately side with Raleigh’s historic breakthrough or Judge’s sustained excellence.

Podcast transcript

Joe Noga: Welcome back to the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. I’m Joe Noga, joined by Paul Hoynes. Hoynsie, the BBWAA award finalists were announced on Monday and we’re going to sit here and go through all the finalists for all of the awards and give our predictions for who we think is going to win and who we think should win each award. And then starting next week, we’ll day by day go through and they’ll reveal the winners and we’ll, we can talk about them. So let’s jump right in right now with the, we’ll start with the National League Most Valuable Player award and I think this is probably one of the ones that’s, that’s going to go unanimous. I think the finalists right now are Shohei Ohtani of the Dodgers, Kyle Schwarber of the Phillies and Juan Soto of the Mets. All three worthy candidates. Ohtani, probably the guy who’s got the inside track on winning the MVP for the fourth time in the last five years, obviously the second consecutive year in the National League. 82 batting average, 55 home runs, 20 steals, 102 RBIs. the majors with 146 runs scored and led the National League with a 1014 OPS. Also made it back to the mound as a pitcher. Posted a 2.87 ERA, 62 strikeouts in 47 innings over 14 starts. Unique talent Shohei Ohtani. We saw what he did in the postseason in, in the National League Championship series with a three homer game and 12 strikeouts. Just, you know, what do you think of Ohtani and then Schwarber and Soto.

Paul Hoynes: You know, he’s one dimensional, he’s a DH. He hit 56 home runs, then 132. I mean, yeah, drove in 132 runs. You know, had a great season for the Phillies. Juan Soto, 105 RBIs, 43 home runs. Led the, led the big leagues in walks. Ohtani just comes at you with such a the total package. You know, he pitches hits. I mean as you said, he hit.282, 25 doubles, nine triples, 55 home runs. I mean, you know, he, this guy and he played 158 games. You know the guy, he can’t be stopped.

Joe Noga: No, it’s, he’s a force for sure. But you talk about Schwarber, it’s almost like there should be an award for the second place guy in the National League whenever Ohtani is, is healthy for an entire season because what Schwaber did, You can’t overlook 56 home runs like you said, but the, the 1, 132 RBIs were the most in the majors. That’s, that’s kind of huge. Over the last, what, four seasons in, in Philadelphia, he’s hit 187 home runs. That’s nothing to sneeze at. Certainly any other year. That’s a guy who would be the, the runaway candidate for National League MVP. It just happens to be playing in the same season as Ohtani. I think Soto, like you said, he does, he’s one of the more dangerous hitters, I think, in all of baseball just because of his patience. Like you said, the 43 home runs was a career high, but he also led the National League with 38 steals. That’s, that’s something that he’s not, you know, known for really, but really sort of added that dimension this year.

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, no doubt about it. You know, he had a great year, but the Mets, you know, didn’t even make the postseason. Joe, they paid this guy $800 million to make the postseason to come to, to the Mets, turn that team around and get him to the World Series. So, you know, you can’t blame it all on Soto. Obviously, you know, he had a great year, but you know, something, you know, he, what, whatever he would, whatever he was doing wasn’t enough to get the Mets, you know, to October.

Joe Noga: We move on to the American League MVP award. Aaron Judge, Cal Raleigh and Jose Ramirez, the finalists there in the al. We talked a little bit about this. Y A it’s a two man race right now between Judge and Raleigh. Jose Ramirez certainly deserving of being a finalist, but just the seasons that Raleigh and Judge put up pretty much guarantee that it’s going to be a 12 finish for them. Judge, course, you know, 53 home runs, led the American League in runs with 137 and 124 walks. This is, you know, a guy who’s just an all around hitter. Probably one of the best hitters in baseball this past season. But Raleigh did something that, that nobody’s ever done as a catcher. He hit 60 home runs and you know, a ninth OPS led, led baseball in home runs and 125 RBIs. Led the American League. You know, how do you choose between Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh?

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, you know, Joe, both guys, it’s like a landslide of statistics when you look at these two guys. You know, Judge, you know, time MVP, you know, like you said, he, you know, he led, led the big leagues with a.331 batting average on base percentage of.437 slugging percentage of.688. I mean, excuse me, the guy can’t do much more than that. Put a 9.7 war, you know, from on Baseball Reference. Just a dominant, dominant year. But Raleigh, you know, set, set the major league record or franchise. Yeah, major league record for, for home runs by catcher. He had 60 overall but 49 when he was behind the plate, led the, you know, let his 60 home runs led the big leagues. You know, he did something you can’t, that you can’t, you can’t, you know, that’s probably never going to be repeated or has never been done before with the home runs by the catcher. He played 120 games at catcher. So just hit a, it’s, it’s a tough call. You know, I, you know what, when I think about it, you know, I think, you know, I’m, I would, I would pick Raleigh because I think this was a once in a career performance. I mean Judge, you know, Judge, it seems like yes, he could crank this season out almost any, you know, every year after year.

Joe Noga: Yeah. And you don’t want to penalize Aaron Judge for his consistency or his excellence there. And you’re right, it does seem like we could get this kind of season out of Aaron Judge anytime over the last, you know, five, six years and anytime in the next five or six years, as long as he stays healthy. But it does feel like what Cal Raleigh did this year feels special and feels like it’s, as you said, once in a lifetime sort of season. Do the voters give more weight to that or do you just look at the overwhelming numbers? And really every other number besides home runs and RBIs went in favor of Aaron Judge. He had the superior season at the plate. But you have to factor in, like you said, the fact that Cal Riley is doing this on a daily basis while he’s, you know, getting dinged with foul balls and blocking balls in the dirt and playing platinum glove level defense behind the plate. That to me in my mind is the separator. But we’ve talked to Stephen Vogt, former catcher, we’ve talked to Austin Hedges, current catcher. Both of them just sort of, they sort of shake their head and they, they know there’s like he’s by far and away the MVP because of what he has to go through. And only they can know, only they can experience, have the experience of what he’s doing on a daily basis to have to and putting up the numbers that he is. That’s really the indicator to me is when, when those guys Tell me, you know, he’s the MVP. That’s where the, the votes should be going. Like you said. I think people are, people want to be with, with the votes being, you know, public. I think people want to be on the right side of history. And you don’t want to look, look past a 9.7 war season and not vote for that. That this is going to be one of the sort of the biggest, closest debates in, in MVP history, I think.

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, no doubt about it. We, you know, you’ve got a guy, you know, and even the games played, there’s not that much difference. You know, Raleigh plays 159, Judge plays 152. I think what Raleigh, going back to the catching situation, you’ve also got to. He’s worked with the staff, he’s working with the pitching staff. He’s in, he’s going over the scouting reports. Every team asks a lot of their starting catchers these days, so, you know, there’s that added responsibility. And like you said, he played very good defense behind the plate. He threw well. So it’s going to be really interesting. You know, I would like to see Raleigh win, but, you know, I think the overwhelming statistical advantage Judge has could probably, could, will probably swing, swing the pendulum in his favor.

Joe Noga: And, and none of this is to take away anything from Jose Ramirez, who will, will absolutely finish in third place in the, in the voting again. For him, it’s what, how many seasons now? He’s, he’s now placed in the top six in voting for the MVP seven times in his career. And this is his fourth top three finish in that stretch. So congratulations to Jose Ramirez for, you know, an outstanding season. By any measure, the National League Cy Young Award finalists are Christopher Sanchez, the lefty from the Phillies, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the righty from the Dodgers, and Paul Skenes, right hander from the Pirates, Hoynsie. If, if the vote had taken place after Game 7 of the World Series, Yoshinobu Yamamoto would be the unanimous winner, without a doubt. But the voting takes place before the postseason starts, and so that leaves it a little more open to interpretation and a little more fair for the guys who didn’t make the postseason. Let’s, let’s start with Sanchez. This is a guy who stepped in, you know, after Zach Wheeler went down. He stepped up and became the ace of the Phillies staff and, you know, a guy who was a 10th place finisher last year for the Cy Young Award. Career year for the Phillies, 13 and 5. 2.5. OERA 212 strikeouts in 202 innings. It was third in the National League in ERA and fifth in strikeouts. But Paul Skenes obviously the, the sort of the, the poster child, the, the face of Major League Baseball, one of the, one of the young faces of Major League Baseball moving forward, started his second straight All Star game this, this season. He was the Rookie of the year in 2024 and you know, he posted a 1.97 ERA to lead all Major League Baseball. He’s the first qualified pitcher with an ERA under two since Justin Verlander in 2022. 16 strikeouts, the second most in the National League. And 187⅔ innings for schemes. He’s just going to get better. The Yamamoto notwithstanding what he did in the postseason. This is a guy who went 12 and 8. The only Dodgers starting pitcher with more than 30 starts. 12, 8 with a 2.49 ERA, 201 strikeouts. How many 3 1/3 innings. But we saw what he’s capable of just being just this otherworldly force on the mound in games six and seven of the World Series. This is, I think this is between Skins and Yamamoto really. Which do you, which way do you think this is going to go?

Paul Hoynes: And this is a really, really a tough call. I didn’t know that much about Sanchez, but obviously he had a really good, a strong season. You know, he didn’t make the All Star team and the, the Phillies were so upset that the ownership decided to give him his All Star bonus anyways, that’s how important he is to that team. Skenes, as you said Joe.199 batting average against Yamamoto.183 batting average against during the regular season. This is a tough call for me. Skenes. 216 strikeouts are the most by a right handed pitcher in, in Pirates history. And Yamamoto just you know, like, and you know, in, in on in a season when the Dodgers, you know, had injury after injury in, in their pitching staff, especially the rotation, he was, he was the rock there. He kept that, that rotation together. Tough call. And I think it does come down to Skenes and Yamamoto. Skenes goes 10 and 10. Yamamoto’s 12 and 8. I guess you have to factor in Skenes is pitching for, you know, one of the worst teams in baseball in the Pirates, you know, and he still put up those numbers. I don’t know. That’s a coin flip to me, Joe. I, I, you know, if I had, you know, if I had a vote in that, I’d probably go with Yamamoto. But just because of the impact he made and the fact that the Dodgers won the division. You know, some of the MVP. When I look at an MVP ballot, I’d like to see the impact that the guy has on the team’s overall performance.

Joe Noga: Yeah. And you know, if I had a vote in the, the NL Cy Young Award, it probably would have gone to Skenes, just because of the, the 1.97 ERA. Being able to, you know, sort of prevent runs on a team that, that was really good at giving up runs in Pittsburgh. We, and we saw the, the evidence of that when we were there this season. Yeah. I think just being. You can still be an outstanding pitcher on a really bad team and win the Cy Young. It’s, it’s, to me, it’s not a, an MVP question. It’s, it’s doing your job as a pitcher. And that’s, you know, if you’re the best one out there, you can’t control if you’re, if your team can’t score runs for you. So I think Skenes gets the nod in that. Moving on to the AL Cy Young Award, this is, this is a loaded category as well. You’ve got Hunter Brown from the Astros, Eric Crochet from the Red Sox, and our, our, our favorite guy who might not be long for the Detroit Tigers anymore, Eric School. Obviously, we saw firsthand what Tarek Skubal can do on several occasions. Dominant in 2024, dominant again in 2025. 2.21 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP and hitters per innings pitch or walks and hits per innings pitch. His fielding independent pitching 2.45 and his strikeout to walk ratio were all better than his 2024 season when he won the, the, the Cy Young for the Tigers. He also threw more innings, 195 and a third innings and had strikeouts. So he’s looking to win his second consecutive Cy Young. He would be the first since Pedro Martinez did so in, in 99 and 2000 or in the American League. The National League has had a bunch of repeat guys. Eric Crochet, obviously, his first year in, in Boston was outstanding. He got the big bucks in the off season. You know, Chris Sale was sort of the last time they had a really big lefty in Boston. But you know, he, he lived up to the, to the contract that he got. $170 million contract. He went out there and led the American League with 205 and a third innings, 255 strikeouts and posted a 2.59 ERA. That’s 205 and a third innings from a guy who used to be a reliever when he was in Chicago. And of course Brown, I think you know, a guy who’s certainly worthy of being a finalist. But he was top five in ERA, 2.43, 206 strikeouts, was third in the American League and his 1.03 WHIP was tied for fourth. Opponents hit just.201 off of Brown. Certainly a worthy finalist for the Astros. Hoynsie, to me again, it looks like a race between Skubal and Crochet. Does, does. Does Skubal get it back to back?

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, that’s. That’s a big question. Crochet really had a. He had a heck of a year. 18 and 5. A 217 batting average against his 255 strikeouts. Led the big leagues. 205 in the third innings led. Led the American League. He averaged 11.2 strikeouts for nine innings to lead the American League. I mean you only saw him. I only remember seeing him once, I think against Cleveland. So, you know, you really didn’t get to appreciate him too much. But Skubal, you know, we know this guy inside and out. He’s the ultimate competitor. Boy, that is a tough call. That is really a tough call. I mean, if you go, if you know what, you know, crochet makes 32 starts. Google makes 31. The innings. 205 and a third to one. 195 and a third. You know, the strikeouts are almost even. 46 by crochet, 33 by Skubal. You know, batting average against what, two. 200, 200 by school against Skubal. 217 against crochet. That is, that is as close as you. You could come. You know, they say familiarity breeds contempt in children. Think. I think I’m going with school. Yeah.

Joe Noga: School’s 6.5 war led the American League for, for pitchers, but Crochet was right there. 6.3. And both of them had a complete game shutout. Skubal’s just happened to come against the Guardians. So we got to see that firsthand. And I think as long as school is. Is sort of sure about what position he’s playing and it’s not NFL Center, I think he’s. He’s probably the most dominant pitcher in baseball right now. And we saw that down the stretch. The Guardians had to face him three times in three weeks and to. To get to the next level of the playoffs and the third time that the Tigers got him, got the good school. So I guess, yeah, it’s. It’s a tough Call to me my vote would go to school as the repeat winner with crochet getting a close second and is certainly a really good job. All right, let’s move on to the next category. Jackie Robinson Rookie of the Year Award National League this is going to be the one where I probably got the least amount of knowledge of the finalists here. Drake Baldwin, the catch Braves third baseman from the Brewers, Caleb Durbin and right handed pitcher Cade Horton of the Cubs. All three. We’ll, we’ll run through the stats here from each of them. This Is Drake Baldwin hit.274 with 19 home runs, 80 RBIs and an 810 OPS. His 80 RBIs were the most among National League rookies. Durbin for the brewers hit.256 with 11 home runs, 18 steals, 53 RBIs. He, he didn’t swing and miss too much. 13% swing and miss rate and a 9.9% strikeout rate. Those both ranked among the top 5% of major league hitters over his season there. And on the mound, Kate Horton for the Cubs. He went out there and went 11 and 4 with a 2.67 ERA, 97 strikeouts and 118 innings over 23 games, made 22 starts is the best ERA for rookie starting pitchers. And his 11 wins were the most among rookie pitchers. So after all that after, after just taking a look at the stats there, you know, none of their performances really stood out in games that we had seen against the Guardians. But Kate Horton to me seems like the front runner in that in that category.

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, Joe, I was thinking the same thing. Cubs number one pick in 2012, 22. He goes coming out of the break, he goes. He posts a 1.03 ERA in 12 starts following the All Star Game, but then fractured a rib in his last start of the season. Had to go on the il and they really missed him in the postseason. So he was not available in the postseason. But I thought, you know, he made a, he made a huge impact. And Baldwin’s a catcher, Joe. Right. I think for 18 home runs or 19 home runs by a catcher, you know, that’s significant on a team like the Braves. That, that’s a big season for that guy. Played 124 games, 810 OPS, OPS + of 100, 126. So you know, he made an impact on that team. Urban, you know, just kind of, it sounds like he kind of bounced between second and third was part of that that great Milwaukee season that they, that the brewers put together, 97 wins. When you look at the whole. What the three. If I had a vote, I’d go with Horton. Joe.

Joe Noga: Yeah, it’s sort of sounds like he could be a guy who might even, you know, we’ve seen so many unanimous Rookie of the Year winners over the last or award winners overall over the last couple of years. I think that might be one he’s in line for there in the American League. Roman Anthony the of the Red Sox, Nick Kurtz of the Athletics, and Jacob Wilson of the Athletics. The shortstop, Jacob Wilson the first baseman, Nick Kurtz. Obviously, you know, we’ve had this conversation during the season on this podcast about Nick Kurtz and the year that he put up. And really if one game and one performance really sort of highlighted his season, it was the six hit, four home run game that he put up against the Astros on July 25th that pretty much made him a lock for the Rookie of the Year. I don’t see, I don’t see anybody else getting a first place vote in this category. Kurt’s hit what, 36 home runs in 117 games. 173 OPS plus and really just an outstanding power season. Again, we’re talking about a guy that the Guardians passed on with the number one overall pick. Hindsight being 22, if you look at the, the rookie season that he’s put up, pretty outstanding. Wilson, you know, was the starting shortstop in the American League for the American League in the all star game. Hit.311 with just 39 strikeouts in 523 plate appearances. That’s impressive for a 23 year old. And Roman Anthony really came on for Boston after his call up, you know, a big, you know, it was a big deal that was made out of calling up Roman Anthony in Boston.319 with a.415 on base percentage and a.505 slugging percentage with seven home runs, but I think he finishes third. I think Nick Kurtz takes this with, without even batting an eyelash.

Paul Hoynes: Nick Kurtz is going to get some MVP votes, Joe. So I mean this guy, what a, what a great season he had. You know, we saw him a couple times, big, strong, left handed hitting first baseman. I mean, maybe he benefited from playing in the Triple A park at Sacramento, but 36 home runs is. 36 home runs, Joe. I mean that, this guy is a monster.

Joe Noga: Yeah, in that four home run game, I think two of the home runs went into the Crawford boxes. Yeah, he’s, he’s a left handed batter, so. So yeah, maybe he does take advantage of smaller Parks, but still the ball goes over the wall. There’s nothing you can do about it. Yeah, Nick Kurtz, certainly the, the American League favorite for Rookie of the Year. All right, we did talk, you know, the other day about the Manager of the Year finalists, but let’s just run through them. In the National League, Terry Francona of the Reds, Pat Murphy of the brewers and Rob Thompson of the Phillies. Obviously we’ve seen what Terry Francona can do to a team firsthand. He’s looking to become, he’s looking for his fourth Manager of the Year award. That would tie Bobby Cox, Tony La Russa and Buck Showalter for the most by any manager. Pat Murphy looking to go back to back as the, the, the Manager of the Year. And, and that’s never been done in the National League. So Rob Thompson with the Phillies, obviously a great job. 90, 96 and 66 was their division title winning finish. Finishing ahead of the Mets who have a significantly higher payroll. Who’s your pick there?

Paul Hoynes: I’m gonna go with Murph Murphy. Pat Murphy, the Brewers, you know, kind of mid to small market team, led all, all of baseball with 97 wins. They had a 14 game winning streak during the season. And Murphy did a nice job managing around some pitching injuries early in the season. He had to kind of mix and match with his bullpen and got the brewers through that.

Joe Noga: And in the American League, we’ve also talked about the finalists there. Stephen Vogt looking to become the first ever manager to win back to back AL Manager of the Year titles. In his first two seasons. John Schneider led the Blue Jays to a first place finish in the American League East. And Dan Wilson in his first year, first full, full year as manager of the Mariners, you know, he, he led the, the M’s to the, to the playoffs and their first division title since 2001. All three worthy candidates. I don’t know, is there going to be fatigue and you know, voters just want to go somewhere other than Stephen Vogt just to have a little variety or, or do you look at what Stephen Vogt did and the historic 15 and a half game comeback that he led and you say, you know, you can’t pass up history.

Paul Hoynes: Yeah, 15 and a half game deficit is a big, that’s a huge thing to overcome. You know, it’s never been done before. So you know, I think that, you know, that really puts the focus on Stephen Vogt as Manager of the year. But Schneider I think is going to get some consider Joe, this is a team that went from last to first. They were last in the AL east in 2024, come back and win the division this year, you know, so I think they had their most Wins. They went 94 and 68, their most wins since 1993, first time they’ve won the AL east since 2015. You know, definitely. I think it’s going to be a little tighter than maybe Cleveland fans think. But, you know, I still think voter gets it.

Joe Noga: Yeah, I can tell you that. I can tell you that my vote did not go to the team with a $300 million player on it. So read into it what you will on that. We’ll see when the when the votes are revealed later on next week. That’s going to wrap up today’s edition of the Cleveland Baseball Talk Podcast. Hoynsie, we’ll check back in with you tomorrow.

Paul Hoynes: Thanks, Joe.

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