The Padres announced Yu Darvish will miss the 2026 season after having UCL surgery. Where does this put the starting rotation in San Diego?
Earlier this week, the Padres announced that starting pitcher Yu Darvish will miss the entire 2026 season after elbow surgery. This is a massive blow to what was already a murky situation in the rotation in San Diego.
Darvish has struggled to stay healthy over the last few seasons. He has made just 31 total starts in the last two years combined and hasn’t reached 25 starts since 2022. The problem is, the Padres owe Darvish $46 million over the next three seasons, including next year when he won’t throw a pitch.
Let’s take a look at the current status of who the Padres expect to be part of their starting rotation.
As of now, Nick Pivetta stands as the most productive starting pitcher from the Padres’ rotation this past season who is set to return. The former Red Sox hurler set a new career high with 190 strikeouts, a 2.87 ERA, and 149 ERA+. He finished inside the top six in the National League for WAR, ERA, and ERA+. The right-hander may get some back-ballot NL Cy Young votes.
He earned every bit of the raise he will receive in 2026. The paycheck goes from $2.5 million last season to roughly $20.5 million next year. The Canadian goes into next year as San Diego’s de facto ace.
The Padres also welcome back Joe Musgrove, who missed the entire 2025 season after going through Tommy John surgery and a lengthy rehab. Essentially, the Padres are replacing the loss of Darvish with Musgrove. However, the hope is that the San Diego native can surpass Darvish’s pedestrian contributions last year.
When last we saw Musgrove, he had pitched into the fourth inning against the Braves in the 2024 Wild Card Round. That helped the Padres win that series. The team announced his need for surgery shortly thereafter. Musgrove owns a solid 3.20 ERA in 98 career games in San Diego. He likely slides in as the No. 2.
Randy Vasquez had quite the audition for a future spot in this rotation in 2025. He shattered his previous career high with just over 133 innings. The former Yankees hurler kept his ERA at a respectable 3.84, with a better-than-average 111 ERA+. With an entire offseason to work more with pitching coach Ruben Nielba as an established part of the rotation, the best may still be yet to come for Vasquez. However, there is reason for skepticism, given his 4.85 FIP and his below-average peripheral numbers.
After those three, it gets very murky for San Diego.
JP Sears made a handful of starts last year after coming over in the deal with the Athletics, along with Mason Miller. However, most of them were disastrous. It added up to a 5.47 ERA in just over 24 innings. With an offseason in San Diego’s program, they may give it another go, given he’s one of the only options they currently have from the left side.
Matt Waldron remains in the organization, having made 33 starts in parts of three seasons with his knuckleball. He likely will get a chance to make the team in Spring Training.
Jhony Brito missed the entire 2025 season with a torn UCL. He may have a longer buildup ahead of the 2026 season, but he should be given a chance to crack the rotation when healthy. In 43 innings for San Diego in 2024, he posted a 4.12 ERA with impressive fastball velocity.
Jackson Wolf, Jagger Haynes, Omar Cruz, and Victor Lizarraga feel like long shots to make the rotation, but they will be names to watch in the spring.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
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