This post is going up so late on a Friday (sorry about that) it’s plausible that you might be the only person to read it. If that’s the case, let me tell you what I think about the Texas Rangers: I think they have a great chance to prove the idea that Bruce Bochy is a Hall of Fame manager, but only every other year.
Last season’s 78-84 finish was a World Series hangover year not unlike the one we experienced with the San Francisco Giants in 2013. If the Giants had Even Year Bullsh*t, perhaps the Rangers have that Odd Year Sizzle. Bruce Bochy’s club is off to a 14-11 start, slightly better than their pace last season, where after getting to 22-17 went 56-67 the rest of the way.
They’re basically doing it with good pitching (3.02 team ERA — 4th in MLB), a little defense, and timely hitting from their younger position players. Their age 23-27 year old position player group has a triple slash of .257/.3310/.449 — a 119 wRC+ (#6 in MLB). Their 28+ crowd, which includes Corey Seager (on the IL for this series), Marcus Semien, and Joc Pederson (more on him in a moment) is hitting .219/.277/.372 with an 87 wRC+ (24th).
Pederson signed a 2-year, $37 million deal with the Rangers this winter coming off a stellar year with the Diamondbacks where he hit .275/.393/.515 with 23 home runs. He started his Texas career with an embarrassing 0-for-41 shock which ended Wednesday night thanks to a pinch hit double in the 9th inning of Texas’s 5-2 loss to the A’s. Does this mean the former Giant is about to bust out of a slump in a big way just in time to face his former team?
Recall that his best night of his career came as a Giant and after talking to Barry Bonds before the game…
If Seager’s absence gets replaced with a Joc Pederson surge, I’m going to be annoyed. The vibes in Giantsland are pretty good these days. They weren’t world beaters in their four-game set with the Brewers, but they countered nearly every punch. The lineup has been solid all season long, and while we’re starting to see cracks in the pitching staff, the baseline stuff every arm seems to have, the pitch sequencing driven by their coaching and data team, and simply having Patrick Bailey as catcher all seem to be working in sync to keep the project together.
The Giants’ 129 runs are the 5th-most in MLB, and they might even have ranked 4th if they hadn’t been blown out by the Brewers the other night (Milwaukee is 4th by just 3 runs!). Texas has scored just 80 runs, the third-fewest in the sport behind the White Sox and Rockies. I am highlighting this as a means to demonstrate their quality pitching in April, which looks to be an equalizer right now.
Then again, the Rangers are just 4-8 on the road with a -28 run differential, so maybe that struggling lineup is the equalizer. But, of course, they also have Bruce Bochy as their field manager, and if the game is close late and a game comes down to a competition of choices made by Bob Melvin versus choices made by Bruce Bochy, the Giants don’t stand a chance.
Series overview
Who: Texas Rangers vs. San Francisco Giants
Where: Oracle Park | San Francisco, California
When: Friday at 7:15pm, Saturday & Sunday at 1:05pm
National broadcasts: Apple TV+ (Friday), FOX (Saturday)
Projected starters
Friday: Nathan Eovaldi (RHP, 1-2, 2.64 ERA) vs. Justin Verlander (RHP, 0-1, 5.47 ERA)
Saturday: Tyler Mahle (RHP, 3-0, 0.68 ERA) vs. Robbie Ray (LHP, 3-0, 4.07 ERA)
Sunday: TBD vs. Jordan HIcks (RHP, 1-3, 6.59 ERA)
Where they stand
Rangers, 14-11 (2nd in AL West), 80 RS / 95 RA | Last 10: 5-5
Giants, 17-9 (2nd in NL West), 129 RS / 101 RA | Last 10: 5-5
Rangers to watch
Nick Ahmed: Not only do the Rangers have former Giant Joc Pederson, they have last year’s Opening Day shortstop. Ahmed played for the Dodgers after the Giants cut him and then managed to catch on with the Padres after the Dodgers cut him. And in true Ahmed fashion, his path to landing on the Rangers’ roster was unsual, too:
The Rangers have re-signed infielder Nick Ahmed to a minor league deal, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. He was participating in extended spring training this weekend, per Phrake Photography.
Ahmed, 35, signed a minor league deal with the Rangers in February. He put up a strong .324/.361/.647 showing during Spring Training but didn’t break camp with the club. He was released at that time but has returned to the same club a few weeks later.
He’s only a .221 hitter at Oracle Park and .226 against the Giants, but, like… let’s keep it that way?
Luke Jackson: Famous for being a move that didn’t work out for the Giants while he was on the team but did once he was traded away (hi there, Sabin Ceballos!), Jackson didn’t return to his World Series-level performance after returning to Atlanta at last year’s deadline, prompting them to deny his $7 million club option that had been built into his Giants contract. The Rangers saw this as an opportunity to get a new closer? He’s pitched 10 innings this season and allowed 5 runs (4 earned) while striking out 8 and walking 3. But that line is slightly misleading. He got lit up on Opening Day (0.1 IP 3 ER), but since then, he’s been stellar: 2 R (1 ER) in 9.2 IP (0.93 ERA, 2.40 FIP) with 7 saves. Is… is this the same Luke Jackson?
Tyler Mahle: It was really tough for me to not talk about Patrick Corbin here. After all, he’s been one of the worst pitchers to ever do it for the past 5 seasons (5.62 ERA / 4.92 FIP in 744.2 IP), and that’s without any health setbacks. After finishing his massive Nats deal, he somehow got a job with the Rangers? In his age-35 season? And he’s been solid? He has a 3.77 ERA (5.39 FIP!) in 14.1 IP. But it seems unlikely the Giants will see the lefty in this series, if only because of how right-handed the lineup can get and Bruce Bochy respects the traditional platoon advantage. So, this segment is about the righty Mahle and his 0.68 ERA in 26.2 IP. He has a 2.49 FIP! What’s going on here?
This MLB.com article chalks it up to health. Bruce Bochy says it’s because “he’s got a lot of poise out there.” Statcast is… unclear. Without altering his pitch mix or increasing velocity or spin he’s putting up much better results here in the early season than ever before.
Giants to watch
LaMonte Wade Jr.: Not only has he struggled at the plate, he’s struggled in the field. While I can point to some underlying data to suggest that Wade’s bat will come around, the combination of bat + defense has jeopardized roster spots since the beginning of the sport, and that’s what’s in play here. Wade is drawing a spotlight on how bad he is right now and at some point that becomes unsustainable.
Justin Verlander: If he can backup his previous start with a solid one this weekend, then I think the “Is Verlander back?” crowd can grow a little louder. Now, I don’t know how many people are in that group and I don’t quite know yet what “back” means in this instance of an elderly man pitching to major league hitters every fifth day, but there you have it. If Justin Verlander is healed and rounding back into that form, then the Giants have a real edge.
Who closes tonight? If the Friday night game features a save situation, it might be a bit of intrigue to see who comes out for the 9th. Doval can’t be the guy because that would be three days in a row — but Ryan Walker could be… but maybe not, and that’s where it gets interesting.
Prediction time
Poll
Giants vs. Rangers – how will it go?
This poll is closed
52%
Giants win series, 2-1
(54 votes)
15%
Giants lose series, 2-1
(16 votes)
15%
::Bochy noises::
(16 votes)
102 votes total