There’s a chance that the San Diego Padres could end up losing a key piece of the starting rotation this offseason.

Dylan Cease has been a member of the organization over the last two years and has been good, although his name has been thrown around in more trade rumors than you’d likely expect. Regardless, the Padres never moved him and now he’s a free agent this offseason and likely will cash in.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel ranked the top 50 players heading to free agency with projected contracts and had Cease at No. 6 and projected the righty to land a five-year, $145 million contract.

“Projected contract: 5 years, $145 million ($29M AAV),” McDaniel said. “Cease has been a reliable front-line starter for the past five seasons, making at least 32 starts each year and ranking fourth in that span in pitcher WAR, ahead of Tarik Skubal, Max Fried and Valdez. He tends to underperform his peripherals a bit, but that spiked this year, when he posted a 4.55 ERA while his ERA estimators were in the mid-3s.

“Cease is a right-handed version of Blake Snell in a number of ways, with vertically oriented movement due to his higher slot, a fastball/breaking ball-heavy power approach (at least 80 percent fastball/slider to both righties and lefties) and an elevated walk rate at times paired with a big whiff rate. … I see five years at roughly $30 million AAV as the neighborhood he should land in, but comparable starting pitching options and the (likely) qualifying offer being tied to him might dampen his market a bit from there.”

San Diego is a team that has seemingly been right on the doorstep, but hasn’t been able to get over the hump. Even in 2025, the Padres finished just behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League West standings. Los Angeles won 93 games, whereas San Diego had 90 wins. But, the Padres were knocked out of the playoffs in the wild card round.

The Padres have had plenty of talent, but things haven’t gone their way. And now, they have to decide if they want to give Cease a massive contract or go in a different direction

More MLB: Padres’ Yu Darvish Makes Unfortunate Injury Announcement