The Arizona Diamondbacks have extended right-hander Zac Gallen the Qualifying Offer. Though he has yet to make an official decision, the expected outcome is a rejection, as Gallen and agent Scott Boras look to test the free agency waters.
In general, it feels as if the D-backs are in a position that would necessitate moving on from Gallen. If $22 million for a one-year deal isn’t satisfactory, Arizona likely would not consider paying him much more than that amount.
But some projections have Gallen receiving less than the Qualifying Offer value per year — though over the course of a multi-year deal.
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ESPN insider Kiley McDaniel projected a four-year, $76 million deal for Gallen, totaling $19 million per year. Even for an underperforming former ace, that value is not exactly poor.
Zac Gallen Contract Projection Could Offer D-backs Opportunity
Sep 9, 2025; San Francisco, California, USA; Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Zac Gallen (23) throws a pitch against the San Francisco Giants during the first inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images | Robert Edwards-Imagn Images
Here’s what McDaniel had to say about Gallen:
“Gallen regressed a bit this year (4.83 ERA) after a sterling three-year run from 2022 to 2024 (cumulative 3.20 ERA, seventh-best pitcher WAR in baseball). There isn’t a clear explanation, but a lot of it can be chalked up to bad ball-in-play luck after he was largely lucky on balls in play from 2022 to 2024.
“The biggest regression was with his curveball, while his slider and cutter also performed worse but his fastball and changeup performed better. I read that as a combination of location/sequence tweaking and positive regression can take Gallen back to the 2024 version of himself next season.
“That would mean an ERA in the high 3s and strong bulk innings, making him a valuable No. 3 starter for the next few years at least. Gallen is roughly 2½ years younger as he hits free agency than Sean Manaea, who landed a three-year deal for a partly deferred $75 million last winter.
“Gallen’s age, righty vs. lefty numbers and platform year ERA mostly balance each other out, so I see a three- or four-year deal for an AAV of $17-23 million.”
If McDaniel’s prediction is accurate, it could provide a two-fold opportunity for Arizona.
Diamondbacks Could Benefit From Projected Gallen Deal
$19 million is more palatable than north of $22 million, even if it comes in the form of a three- or four-year deal. If the D-backs are looking to return their former ace, this amount would be much easier for GM Mike Hazen and co. to surrender.
It still seems unlikely they’ll elect to utilize so much of their (reduced) available payroll on Gallen, however. But this deal would still provide a benefit.
If Gallen signs for $76 million — in other words, well clear of $50 million — the D-backs would land a very high compensation Draft pick. It would essentially be an extra first-rounder.
If this is the deal Gallen and Boras pursue, the D-backs will have an opportunity to either offer a deal of less than astronomical value, or to add a potential future impact player for free in the Draft.
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