Credit: USA Today Sports
Entering free agency, the Padres are preparing to potentially lose three frontline starters from last year’s roster. However, pursuing a premium starting pitcher could provide clarity for the dismantled starting staff.
San Diego received a crushing blow when it was reported that Yu Darvish underwent UCL surgery and will miss the entire 2026 MLB Season. The Padres are already facing the possibility of losing Michael King and Dylan Cease to free agency. Now down three starters, the Padres are officially entering “scramble mode” on the starting pitcher market.
With three holes to fill and few internal options, the Padres shouldn’t put all of their eggs in one basket. With uncertainty surrounding the Padres’ financial ability to bring back either of King or Cease, the Padres must be strategic in how they attack free agency. The Padres rolled with five right-handers in the rotation for the majority of 2025. Switching things up by acquiring a lefty on the market could prove valuable to the entire staff
Framber Valdez, a 31-year-old left-hander, could be a statement pickup to revive the starting unit. A member of the Houston Astros for nine years, Valdez put together an impressive resume. Valdez posted a 3.36 ERA across over 1000 innings for the club, primarily through his elite ground ball ability. He’s a consistent, high-floor pitcher who rarely implodes, misses time, or goes through ugly stretches.
Framber Valdez is tied for the most Quality Starts (63) since the start of the 2022 season. pic.twitter.com/iAB5rSk9Cb
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) October 31, 2024
His price
Valdez is considered the most expensive starting pitcher on the free agency market. That said, this year’s free agent class of pitchers isn’t necessarily a formidable bunch. In comparison to last year’s trio of Blake Snell, Corbin Burnes, and Max Fried, Valdez doesn’t feel as fit to lead a class.
Right now, the consensus projection for Valdez is approximately a $30 million average annual value. Therefore, a shorter deal would look something like four years, $130 million, and a longer variant could be more like eight years, $210 million. The consistency factor keeps any length of deal at play, as there’s little risk involved with volatile production or injury concern.
For the Padres, just over $20 million will be coming off the books with projected departures of Cease and King. Former first baseman Eric Hosmer‘s $13 million salary will finally come off the books. However, Nick Pivetta‘s creative contract will earn him $18 million more than it did in 2025. Other potential subtractions include Ryan O’Hearn, Luis Arraez, and Robert Suarez, who could free up a total of $29.5 million.
What he throws, and how he gets outs
Framber Valdez is a premier groundball pitcher, as he heavily relies on throwing low in the zone. Valdez falls into the 97th percentile in ground ball rate, ranking second among all starters in 2025. He’s a strike thrower and heavily targets the bottom of the zone. Out of all the 1861 strikes he threw in 2025, 48% of them landed in the bottom-third of the zone.
As for his arsenal, Valdez relies primarily on a sinker. The pitch breaks harder both arm-side and downwards than the average sinker, making it tough for hitters to elevate. His counterpunch— a curveball that he throws 33% of the time— complements his fastball well. Because of the fact his two best offerings feature significant downward break, hitters struggle to get his pitches off the ground.
Framber Valdez
Pre All-Star Break:
98.1 IP
3.66 ERA
1.28 WHIP
82 K
Post All-Star Break:
78 IP
1.96 ERA
0.89
87 Kpic.twitter.com/96jJKaNVGM
— Kirk Snyder (@dynastyinfo411) October 1, 2024
How the Padres’ rotation would shape out
Despite Nick Pivetta’s stellar 2025 season, Valdez would be considered San Diego’s ace. As the top pitcher on the market, acquiring Valdez would shoot the Padres’ rotation up the ranks instantly. In particular, adding a lefty to a dominantly right-handed rotation would give a boost to the other four hurlers.
The Padres would likely line up something like this:
SP1 – Framber Valdez
SP2 – Nick Pivetta
SP3 – Joe Musgrove
SP4 – Randy Vasquez
SP5 – JP Sears
A top three of Valdez, Pivetta, and Musgrove would be highly optimal. Whenever you’re able to bump your previously-best pitcher down to No. 2 on the depth chart, it’s a win. However, it’s important to note that the back half of the rotation could see significant changes through the winter. Whether it’s converting Mason Miller to a starter or shopping for back-end starters on the market, it’s unlikely that the rotation will look the same by the time March rolls around.
A 17-year-old San Diego native, Willy Warren is a baseball fan at heart who created High Leverage Baseball, a public baseball media account covering around-the-league statistical analysis and breakdowns on X. Willy is set to attend the Cronkite School of Journalism in the fall of 2026 at Arizona State University, where he’ll pursue a major in sports journalism.
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