One of the more interesting pitchers in MLB free agency is Lucas Giolito, who’s coming off a season that ended early due to elbow issues.
After a fascinating career to this point, the San Diego Padres should seriously consider adding Giolito to possibly beef up their starting rotation.
With Giolito, his story has been interesting. Mark Polishuk of MLB Trade Rumors broke down the recent news on Giolito: “Right flexor irritation and a bone issue kept Giolito off the playoff roster…With no UCL damage discovered and the inflammation subsided…He is also hoping for an encore performance at Fenway Park in 2026 and beyond.”
With Giolito directly stating that he wants to return to the Boston Red Sox, a return seems very possible. At the same time, there’s a chance they may not want him back.
If the Red Sox are willing to pay Giolito good money and they’re not worried about the injury, that’s what will likely happen. That’s far from a guarantee, though, and the Padres would make sense to come into play.
This is a PREDICTION, not a REPORT.
More MLB Content From TWSN
The Dream Free Agent Signing For Every MLB Team
No, The Los Angeles Dodgers Aren’t Ruining Baseball
The Los Angeles Dodgers Are The Greatest Dynasty Of The Last 10 Years
Lucas Giolito Joining San Diego Padres in MLB Free Agency
The breakout for Giolito came in 2019 with the Chicago White Sox at 24 years old. This breakout came out of nowhere as the former first-round pick really struggled just one year prior.
In 2018, Giolito had -1.3 WAR, a 10-13 record, and a 6.13 ERA. Then, the breakout came, and in 2019, Giolito had 5.4 WAR, a 14-9 record, and a 3.41 ERA.
That season would earn Giolito his first and only All-Star nod, and he also came 6th in the AL Cy Young voting. With the White Sox falling apart, Giolito would leave in 2023, then spend time with the Los Angeles Angels and the Cleveland Guardians.
Giolito then signed with the Red Sox, but missed the entire 2024 season. In 2025, Giolito had a strong year with 2.1 WAR, a 10-4 record, and a 3.41 ERA.
Beyond that, Giolito had some strong Baseball Savant numbers, highlighted by his 58th-percentile mark for his Pitching Run Value.
How Lucas Giolito Fits with the San Diego Padres
As for why the Padres could use Giolito, their starting pitching was mediocre last year despite their 90-72 record. On the year, San Diego had the 16th-best ERA among starters at 4.07.
If Giolito is able to stay healthy and deliver the same kind of production he gave Boston, that would be a huge boost for this Padres staff. The status of Dylan Cease is important to note as well when it comes to the outlook of San Diego’s rotation.
Even under the assumption that Cease at least comes back, JP Sears is projected to be the 4th starter. Sears isn’t that much younger than Giolito, and he’s been less productive.
In 2025, Sears had 0.8 WAR, a 9-11 record, and a 5.04 ERA. The last time Sears had an ERA under 4.00 was in 2022. Going from Sears to Giolito would absolutely be a worthwhile investment for San Diego.
Lucas Giolito Stats
Now, to touch on a few more stats from Giolito, let’s look at two important ones. Giolito had an xERA of 5.06 (12th percentile) and xBA of 0.268 (14th percentile) last year.
Neither number is great, and across the board, these advanced stats are a bit underwhelming. These could be reasons why the Red Sox are skeptical and don’t want to bring Giolito back, on top of the injuries.
Regardless, Giolito pitched too well last year not to be paid and deserves a solid spot in an MLB rotation. For the San Diego Padres, who are looking to take a leap in 2026, signing Lucas Giolito in MLB free agency would be a great move.