The Cleveland Guardians (25-21) and the Minnesota Twins (26-21) begin a 3-game series Monday at Target Field in Minneapolis. First pitch is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Guardians vs. Twins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians lead 3-1

The Guardians had a difficult time in Cincinnati, losing all 3 games of an interleague series, while getting outscored 12-6. The Under cashed in all 3 games, and Cleveland is now in the midst of a 4-game slide, while going just 2-6 in the past 8 games, all in interleague play. The Under is 7-1-1 in the past 9 games, too.

For Cleveland, there weren’t many bright spots Sunday, as the bats were mostly shut down. But, 3B/DH Jose Ramirez collected a pair of hits in 5 at-bats, while 1B Carlos Santana had the lone RBI, while the 39-year-old also had a multi-hit game in 4 at-bats.

The Twins saw their 13-game win streak go up in smoke Sunday in Milwaukee, falling 5-2. The team’s top pitching prospect, RHP Zebby Matthews, was tagged for 4 runs, 5 hits and 3 walks in just 3 innings of work in his season debut. 3B Royce Lewis launched his first homer of the season, a solo shot, while 3B Brooks Lee drove in the team’s only other run.

The Twins had recorded 3 straight shutouts prior to Sunday’s loss, so it’s no surprise the Under is 3-0-1 in the previous 4 games. The Under is also 7-3-1 across the past 11 games and 14-6-1 in the previous 21 outings.

Guardians at Twins projected starters

LHP Logan Allen vs. RHP Bailey Ober

Allen (2-2, 3.70 ERA) makes his ninth start. He has a 1.52 WHIP, 4.4 BB/9 and 6.8 K/9 in 41 1/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 3 H, 1 BB, 6 K in 2-0 home victory vs. Milwaukee Brewers Tuesday2025 road splits: 1-1, 3.42 ERA (26 1/3 IP, 10 ER), 2 HR, 14 BB, 19 K in 5 starts2024 vs. Twins (1 start): Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 7 K in 11-4 home victory May 18Career vs. Twins: 2-0, 2.04 ERA (17 2/3 IP, 4 ER), 2 HR, 5 BB, 14 K, 1.36 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 3 starts

Ober (4-1, 3.72 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 7.5 K/9 in 48 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 2 H (1 HR), 3 BB, 3 K in 6-3 road win vs. Baltimore Orioles Wednesday2025 home splits: 2-0, 2.53 ERA (21 1/3 IP, 6 ER), 3 HR, 4 BB, 22 K, 1.31 WHIP in 4 starts2025 vs. Guardians (1 start): Win, 7 2/3 IP, 1 ER, 8 H (0 HR), 0 BB, 2 K in 11-1 road win April 28Career vs. Guardians: 3-2, 2.05 ERA (52 2/3 IP, 12 ER), 5 HR, 5 BB, 48 K, 0.87 WHIP, 8.2 K/9 in 9 starts

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Guardians at Twins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 11:13 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Guardians +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Twins -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Guardians +1.5 (-185) | Twins -1.5 (+155)Over/Under (O/U): 7.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Guardians at Twins picks and predictionsPrediction

Twins 4, Guardians 3

The TWINS (-145) are worth a look as moderate favorites as they look to slide back into the win column after suffering a setback Sunday.

Ober dominated the Guardians in Cleveland in an 11-1 rout, the only Minnesota win in that 4-game series back from April 28-May 1. He has had solid numbers in his career against Cleveland, and the Twins have been red-hot lately, while the Guardians have been cold. Let’s roll with Ober and Minnesota in the series opener.

The Guardians +1.5 (-185) should be able to keep it close, as Allen has had some solid performances against the Twins early in his career.

However, you can’t trust Cleveland, as it has struggled offensively in recent games, and Minnesota has been on fire. Plus, as mentioned above, Ober had his way with the Guards in his previous start in Cleveland.

AVOID.

UNDER 7.5 (-115) is the lean, but go with a half-unit play at most.

The Under is 3-0-1 in the past 4 games for the Twins, while going 7-3-1 across the previous 11 outings. The Under is 3-1 in 4 meetings with the Guardians this season, too, including the past 3 in the series.

For the Guardians, they’ve amassed just 6 total runs of offense in the past 3 games, cashing the Under in 3 in a row. The total has gone low at a 7-1-1 clip in the past 9 outings, too.

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