In almost all instances, the “must win” label is hyperbole in baseball. That’s largely the stuff of football where a game or two decides everything. The last couple of years, a few blown games were the difference between in and out of the playoffs. So it’s hard to split the hairs. There certainly isn’t a must win game for a team that has been running in first place for most of the season.
But there are definitely some games that are bigger than others. It seems like this team has bounced every time it needs to. On Tuesday, this one wasn’t lost on me. Of course, they won. Not that it was fated, but I definitely thought they’d do it. But what wasn’t lost was who and how they won. To begin, Kyle Tucker homered in the top of the first and so the Cubs started the game on the right foot and never trailed.
Next, Jameson Taillon threw seven innings, allowing four hits and three walks. One run. He stepped up on a night when the team needed it. The bullpen was a little sideways and he shut it down. Chris Flexen was the only reliever on the evening. Taillon held the line while the offense got things worked out.
Ryan Weathers has made two good starts against the Cubs. For a bit, you had to wonder if this would be one of those games where the offense was just in a funk. They managed five hits but no walks against Weathers. And the game was tied after five.
And then the landslide came. Death by a million paper cuts. Walk, five singles, sac fly, double strikeout, homer (and single for good measure). Eight runs in all. Taillon held the line, then the offense exploded. After Taillon had passed the torch to Flexen, the offense added on five more runs against a position player pitching.
The veteran led the pitching staff. The superstar led the offense. Ten Cubs had hits. 21 of them in total. Four doubles, two homers. Ten Cubs scored runs. Nine Cubs had runs batted in. Seven Cubs had multiple hits and three had three. This was a massive onslaught. The Cubs have a chance to win a series. They won’t be swept.
Veteran leadership and production, right when it was needed. I’ve said it repeatedly. This team is special. I’m not sure I said it adequately yesterday. When the team fell behind yesterday, that’s typically been the type of game where the team rolled over and played dead. But not this year. They came off of the mat and got within a strike of losing. Then, after they let yesterday’s game get away, they came off of the mat yet again. Tucker got them a good start. Taillon picked it up and held the line until the game was all but over.
Special. Resilient. A ton of fight. There are definitely missing ingredients for a championship recipe. How much can they add at the deadline? How many pieces can come back healthy? What stumbles will other teams experience? How healthy will this team stay over the long haul? If enough of these questions are answered favorably, this team can make a deep run. I expect them to win the division and have a first-round bye. That should be incentive enough for the front office to be aggressive.
Keep plugging. Keep things going in the right direction. That’s all you can do.
Pitch Counts:
Cubs: 109, 34 BF
Marlins: 178, 49 BF
The numbers are massive and disparate. Taillon was efficient enough that in a different situation, you might have had him start the eighth. It’s 100 percent exactly what you’d want. Even in allowing seven baserunners, he only threw 87 pitches over seven. That’s an efficient, effective game.
Weathers threw 80 over five. Those numbers are fine. This will be a six-inning start for him when he’s fully healthy. That’s a talented arm. Calvin Faucher was a disaster. 21 pitches to six batters, no outs and six runs. Lake Bachar finished that sixth inning. He threw another 19 pitches and was charged with three hits and two runs. Faucher and Bachar may not be available on a quick turn around.
Then Cade Gibson was sent out to preserve the bullpen. He threw two decent innings. Holding the line. But he threw 33 pitches to get six outs. He’s almost certainly not available for the finale. The shoe has moved to the other foot. The Cubs probably have everyone but Flexen (though even Flexen only threw 22 pitches) available. The Marlins are surely short handed for the finale. With an off day Thursday, the Cubs can go hard at a series win on getaway day against a bad team.
Three Stars:
Jameson Taillon gets my top spot. Tucker’s homer wasn’t enough to put the game away. The team’s were tied up to that sixth inning. Taillon had a ruthlessly efficient seven inning outing. He held the line until the game was all but over.
Kyle Tucker did have that first homer, added two more singles and a walk. He scored twice and drove in one.
Seiya Suzuki also had three hits. Among them a homer and double. He drew a walk. He drove in four and scored three. That’s how you fill a scoresheet.
Game 49, May 20: Cubs 14, Marlins 1 (29-20)
Fangraphs
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Jameson Taillon (.182). 7 IP, 28 BF, 4 H, 3 BB, ER, 2 K (W 3-3)
Hero: Kyle Tucker (.154). 3-4, HR, BB, RBI, 2 R
Sidekick: Carson Kelly (.078). 2-6, R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Ian Happ (-.150). 1-5, RBI, R, DP
Goat: Vidal Brujan (.000). 0-1
Kid: Michael Busch/Jon Berti (.000). Busch: 1-1, 2B, 2 RBI; Berti: 1-1, R
*I had to apply scorer’s discretion here. Three players tied at .000. Brujan’s was a negative result, so I placed him on the lower spot. Busch and Berti are innocent bystanders in a slaughter. I don’t note such things, but confidently, it’s been a long time since there was only one player with a negative score. Such was the domination and the collaborative effort.
WPA Play of the Game: Nick Fortes’ homer with one out in the third tied the game at one and represented all of the Marlins offense on the night. (.120)
*Cubs Play of the Game: Kyle Tucker’s homer with two outs in the first to start the scoring. (.099)
Cubs Player of the Game:
Poll
Who was the Cubs Player of the Game?
77%
Jameson Taillon
(59 votes)
1%
Justin Turner (3-4, 2B, SF, RBI, R)
(1 vote)
2%
Someone else (leave your suggestion in the comments)
(2 votes)
76 votes total
Yesterday’s Winner: Miguel Amaya 195 of 201 votes
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
Kyle Tucker +18
Shōta Imanaga/Drew Pomeranz/Miguel Amaya +11
PCA +9.5
3 players -7
Ben Brown/Michael Busch -11
Julian Merryweather -13
Seiya Suzuki -13.5
Up Next: The teams finish this series and the season series. The Cubs will at least split the season series and can win it. The Marlins can split the season and win this series. I feel confident that in all of baseball history, there aren’t very many players who can say they’ve won every game they’ve appeared in. One day soon, Cade Horton (2-0, 6.00, 9 IP) won’t either. I’d be delighted to see him push it to three. He has wins over the White Sox and Mets. He allowed three runs in each. He won’t keep winning without doing more.
26-year-old righty Max Meyer (3-4, 4.47, 50⅓ IP) gets his 10th start of the season. The third overall pick in the 2020 draft for the Marlins has made 22 career starts, dating back to a pair of starts in 2022. He didn’t start in the last series against the Cubs. He did start against them late year and allowed three runs, two earned over five. In May, he’s made three starts and allowed 13 earned runs, 14 total, over just 16⅓ innings. This could be a high-scoring game. His last start was the best of the three, but he just hasn’t been great. None of the three teams, the Rays, White Sox and A’s are particularly noted as juggernauts.