The 2026 ZiPS projections were released yesterday for the Cincinnati Reds. They outlook isn’t exactly great for the club as it stands today, looking to be roughly a .500 club without making any moves. Of course it’s unlikely that they won’t make any moves between now and the start of the season. But over here we’re more focused on how the prospects are going to play, or at least could play in 2026.
I’ve generally never been the biggest fan of how projection systems handle prospects, particularly top ones who are already at the higher levels of the minor leagues and have performed there. While there are going to be guys who fit that profile who did ultimately struggle in the big leagues, the ones who found success were typically undervalued by projection systems until they performed at the big league level.
With that out of the way, one prospect stands out among the group from a position player standpoint and that’s Sal Stewart. You probably aren’t surprised by that. He’s one of the Reds top prospects and he’s already reached the Major Leagues and held his own after performing very well in Double-A and Triple-A.
ZiPS projects Stewart to be the team’s second best hitter. He’s well behind Elly De La Cruz at the plate, but he’s ahead of everyone else. The projection, though, isn’t great. His slash line translates to a 100 OPS+ with a .257/.319/.428 season with 26 doubles and 19 home runs in 536 plate appearances.
No other prospect projects well for 2026 at the plate. But some minor leaguers are in the solid range. Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Rece Hinds project to hit better than guys like Matt McLain or Noelvi Marte – who the ZiPS projections really don’t seem to like. Blake Dunn doesn’t project to hit much, but the overall profile that includes defense and baserunning makes him look like a good bench option if the numbers are right.
Looking through some of the offensive projections, which aren’t adjusted for expected playing time, there are a few notable things. While Elly De La Cruz is atop the leaderboard for steals, it’s Carlos Jorge and Blake Dunn who are next in line. In the home run column it’s Rece Hinds behind De La Cruz, and four of the top six guys on the list spent most of 2025 in the minor leagues.
On the mound there doesn’t seem to be a prospect that really stands out. With that said, among players returning to the organization (ZiPS lists free agents with their last team until they sign elsewhere), a prospect does project for the 7th best ERA on the team if they make it. And they may not. Reliever Trevor Kuncl is projected for a 4.70 ERA, which is just ahead of Rhett Lowder and Zach Maxwell. The latter two are on the 40-man roster and will be in spring training with the big league club vying for a spot on the opening day roster. Kuncl, who dominated as the Chattanooga Lookouts closer in 2025 spent time following the regular season in the Arizona Fall League. As of now he has not been extended an invite to big league camp. Without several additions to the roster, ZiPS thinks all three should be on the pitching staff based on their projected performance.