Credit: AP Photo
The San Diego Padres are looking for starting rotation depth, and with the high-upside options on the market being limited by asking price, could the Padres go the buy-low route?
With a top-heavy rotation, A.J. Preller and the San Diego Padres are searching for depth to add to their starting rotation. The Padres have seen success at rebuilding pitchers’ stock with their current pitching infrastructure, which could entice them to sign an arm who may be looking for a rebound.
Dustin May has always been applauded for his pure stuff, a ghastly sinker-sweeper combination that flummoxes batters at any turn. However, he entered the 2025 season having missed over a year and a half. May underwent Tommy John surgery in 2023 after a Grade 2 strain of his UCL, as well as a flexor tendon procedure.
While on the mend from the arm surgeries, May underwent surgery for an esophageal tear after a freak accident. Having missed nearly 23 months, May returned in April of 2025, but the results were up-and-down. After two months of the season, May had posted a 4.20 ERA, allowing three runs or less in seven of his first ten starts. The other three were a sign of things to come, as in those three starts, he allowed four, four, and seven runs. The wheels began to come off in June, as he posted a 5.67 ERA and 6.28 FIP in five starts. The worst of those was against San Diego, where he allowed five runs in five innings (including a two-run triple to Tyler Wade). While his July was not as bad, he was forced out of the rotation at the month’s end.
A day later, May was traded to the Red Sox in a confounding move, one which saw top prospect James Tibbs III sent back to the Dodgers. If the struggles were bad in the early summer, the change of scenery did not help. May pitched to a 5.40 ERA with Boston in six games (five starts). May’s strikeout percentage went down to a below-average 19.5% with Boston, and batters hit .302 against him. Batters also had a .353 BABIP against him in Boston. May did not finish the season healthy, as he landed on the injured list in early September due to right elbow neuritis, which cleared an avenue for Red Sox top prospect Connelly Early to debut. Reports from May’s camp indicated that his elbow was fully back to health in mid-November, which indicated the right-hander may have dealt with a milder case of the condition.
Entering the free agent market at a low in terms of performance, he could still be the sort of arm that San Diego could be enticed to go after. The Padres are all too familiar with May, as he has faced them 13 times in his career (14, including the postseason).
In fact, May’s MLB debut came in a game against the Padres (August 2, 2019, at Dodger Stadium). One of the traits that makes May unique is that, even for as hard as he used to throw, he was never one to get many whiffs. Instead, he relied on that turbo sinker for weak contact. That remained much the same in 2025, as his sinker mainly lived below the batter’s beltline. His stuff did not see much of a downtick after the trade either, so with the season’s struggles, it could be a matter of philosophy. San Diego’s staff under Ruben Niebla has shown confidence in their stuff to throw it in the zone, allowing them to generate whiffs. This is one of two issues that plagued May’s 2025 campaign.
Dustin May, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/HsXXAdkzgV
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 12, 2025
This could be the ideal location for a sinker, upper third of the zone.
When looking at May’s pitch locations and metrics, he showed improvements in his Location+ in his Red Sox stint compared to his time in LA. While his location was better, his pitches were lacking depth. His sinker still had double-digit inches of horizontal break, but the cutter was below-average in its movement, essentially becoming a BP fastball. Could he add depth to the pitch from his 21° arm angle? Possibly, but most arms from such an angle have comparable break and tail on their cutters.
Pitcher (Arm Angle)
Cutter MPH
Horiz. Break
Vert. Break
Horiz. Vs Avg.
Vert. vs Avg.
Dustin May (21°)
91.4
0.4” armside
6.8”
-2.6”
-1.5”
Zach Wheeler (23°)
91.9
0.8” gloveside
9.4”
-1.4”
+1.1”
Logan Webb (22°)
91.1
2.0” armside
7.7”
-4.2”
-0.6”
Charlie Morton (21°)
88.0
0.9” gloveside
5.3”
-1.3”
-3.0”
May’s sinker and sweeper continued to have above-average movement when compared to comparable pitches (within 2 mph and 0.5 feet of extension regardless of arm angle). There was an added twist that the Red Sox began to implement with May, as he began to throw a changeup.
This actually solves his second major issue in 2025, as he did not have an out pitch for left-handed batters. The changeup’s metrics were as follows: 89.1 mph, 1.7” iVB (33.1” vertical drop with gravity), and 13.8” of armside run. The pitch is one he seldom used in his time with the Dodgers, and it remains somewhat raw in terms of its shape. The 13.8” of armside run is not the most it has ever had, as it posted 16.4” of armside run at 90.7 mph with LA in 2023.
To put it simply, this was the pitch he was missing against left-handed batters, as left-handers slugged .495 against May in 2025. May’s top three pitches against left-handed batters were his sweeper (38%), sinker (28%), and four-seamer (21%). However, all 17 changeups thrown by May in 2025 came against left-handed batters. When located properly, the pitch was effective at confusing the batter or generating weak contact (including foul balls). However, he tended to miss middle-middle or outside. With a pitch such as this, and the Padres’ pitching R&D lab in Point Loma, signing him early in the off-season could allow them to build a plan on how May can best employ the pitch for maximum success.
May’s changeup locations in 2025 (Graphic via Baseball Savant)
Should San Diego aim to sign May, using a starting role to entice the right-hander could be part of negotiations, as well as any incentives for games started. The Padres’ plan with May could be rather simple: use the fastball up in the zone for swings and misses, which will make the sweeper even more devastating.
May has a comparable arm angle to Michael King, and King used his fastball and sinker mostly up in the zone in his two seasons in San Diego. Using the fastball up allowed him to set up the sweeper and changeup low in the zone, using the horizontal movement on both for whiffs or weak contact. This worked for King in 2024, as he crossed the 200 strikeout mark and finished seventh in Cy Young voting. May’s velocity now is comparable, if not slightly higher than King’s, so there is a chance that the Padres organization sees the stuff as something they can help the right-hander re-harness.
Graphic by D. Garcia (EVT Sports)
May’s contract demands could be rather interesting, as he only made $2,135,000 in 2025. Considering the amount of starting pitching on the market currently (and that which will be added following the non-tender deadline on November 21), May will not have significant leverage in contract demands. Since his last contract was so low, the Padres could aim for a one-to-two-year deal with May, much like they did with Kyle Hart last offseason. In May’s case, a one-year deal worth between $4-8 million with incentives and a club option for 2026 could be a worthwhile investment if they are able to get him to rebound to form.
Last offseason, veteran arms coming off subpar seasons like Max Scherzer and Charlie Morton got north of $10 million for one year. In fact, May’s former teammate, Walker Buehler, got a one-year deal worth $21.05 million from the Red Sox, which was a rough signing in retrospect. With May’s much more limited track record, a deal like the hypothetical mentioned above could be worth taking, as he would be more than doubling his 2025 salary while going to an organization with one of the stronger pitching R&D departments in the league.
While the Padres have seen Dustin May plenty as an opponent, and with their rotation needs, having him turn heel on his former club could be exactly the kind of low-risk, high-reward acquisition the Padres’ rotation will need in their quest for the 2026 postseason.
A born and raised San Diegan, Diego Garcia is a lifetime Padres fan and self-proclaimed baseball nerd. Diego wrote about baseball on his own site between 2021-22 before joining the East Village Times team in 2024. He also posts baseball content on his YouTube channel “Stat Nerd Baseball”, creating content around trades, hypotheticals, player analyses, the San Diego Padres, and MLB as a whole.
A 2024 graduate of San Diego State, Diego aims to grow as a writer and content creator in the baseball community.
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