Milwaukee had many amazing moments during an improbably good 2025 season. In this article, we take a look back at the top five greatest moments in terms of Win Probability Added (WPA).   

Win Probability Added calculates the likelihood a team will win a game from one plate appearance to the next. For example, if the Brewers are tied 0-0 in the bottom of the fourth inning, Milwaukee’s chances of winning might be 50%. If Christian Yelich grounds out weakly to second base to lead off the inning, the Brewers’ odds of winning might reduce by 1%. In other words, the Yelich at-bat had a negative 1% WPA.  

1. William Contreras’ two-run home run off Emilo Pagán, Top 9 with 1 out, trailing 1-0 on August 17 

Win Probability, before: 18% 

Win Probability, after: 81% 

The Brewers entered this contest on a franchise-record, 14-game winning streak. The league was beginning to believe that Milwaukee’s probability of winning was 100% for every game, no matter what.  

Jose Quintana pitched six scoreless innings before allowing a sacrifice fly in the bottom of the 7th inning. It seemed like that run would be the difference until the 9th inning.  

Anthony Siegler drew a leadoff walk. Caleb Durbin popped out. William Contreras then hit the opening pitch into the left-center field bleachers. Just like that, 2-1 Brewers.  

The most pivotal play during a season of unlikely moments. Unfortunately, this game was not over. Cincinnati ultimately won 3-2 in ten innings. 

2. Andrew Vaughn’s RBI single off Tanner Scott, Bottom 9 with 1 out, trailing 2-1 on July 9 

Win Probability, before: 33% 

Win Probability, after: 82% 

Andrew Vaughn was recalled from Triple-A Nashville on July 7. Vaughn immediately made his presence felt, recording 4 RBI in his first two games with Milwaukee.  

The Brewers were going for a three-game sweep against the Dodgers when they trailed 2-1, heading into the bottom of the 9th inning. Vaughn pinch hit for Jake Bauers with runners on first and second and one out. Vaughn then hit a broken bat flair over the shortstop to tie the game on the very first pitch. The game was now tied at 2-2. 

Milwaukee went on to win 3-2 in ten innings. The legend of Andrew Vaughn was born. 

3. Andrew Vaughn’s two RBI double off Kyle Finnegan, Bottom 9 with 0 outs, trailing 5-3 on July 12 

Win Probability, before: 33% 

Win Probability, after: 81% 

The Brewers were riding a six-game winning streak as play began on July 12. However, it looked like things would slip away after Abner Uribe allowed a two-run home run to Brady House in the top of the 8th inning to give Washington a 4-3 lead.  

Andrew Vaughn stepped to the plate with two runners on and nobody out in the bottom of the 9th inning. He ripped a first-pitch fastball to the right-center field gap, scoring Jackson Chourio and Christian Yelich. Vaughn’s heroics tied the game at 5-5, allowing Caleb Durbin to win it with a walk-off single, three batters later. 

4. William Contreras’ walk-off home run off Randy Rodriguez, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, tied 4-4 on August 22 

Win Probability, before: 54% 

Win Probability, after: 100% 

Milwaukee was glad to be home after losing three out of five games in Chicago. It seemed like Willy Adames was excited to be back at his old ballpark, too. Adames hit two home runs on the evening. 

Trevor Megill started the ninth inning with a one-run lead. Megill retired the first two batters before allowing a double, an infield single, and a wild pitch. San Francisco tied the game at 4-4.  

After two quick outs, William Contreras hammered his first career walk-off home run, barely clearing the wall in left field. The Brewers won 5-4. 

5. Caleb Durbin’s RBI single off Félix Bautista, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, trailing 3-2 on May 21 

Win Probability, before: 17% 

Win Probability, after: 61% 

No one expected much from Milwaukee in May. The Brewers were below .500, even as they looked to sweep Baltimore on May 21. 

Caleb Durbin had also done little to inspire optimism since being called up on April 18; he had produced a .501 OPS until this point. 

Milwaukee was down to its final out, trailing by a run. Durbin came to the plate with runners on first and second. On the fifth pitch of the at-bat, Durbin was able to punch a hanging slider to the opposite field to tie the game at 3-3. 

In a disappointing turn of events, Milwaukee later lost 8-4 in 11 innings. Tyler Alexander took the loss, allowing four runs in relief.

Bonus: Paul Molitor’s walk-off three-run home run off Tom Henke, Bottom 9 with 2 outs, trailing 4-2 on August 13, 1991 

Win Probability, before: 9% 

Win Probability, after: 100% 

For context, the greatest play in franchise history (in terms of WPA) came at County Stadium in 1991. 

The Brewers faced the Toronto Blue Jays in the opening game of a three-game series. Bill Wegman pitched well through eight innings but allowed a go-ahead home run to Joe Carter in the ninth. Chuck Crim allowed another run in relief, extending the Blue Jays’ lead to 4-2. 

B.J. Surhoff and Franklin Stubbs were quickly retired to start the bottom of the 9th inning. A two-out double from Jim Gantner, followed by a walk by Bill Spiers, brought Paul Molitor to the plate. Molitor drove a deep flyball to left field, clearing the fences, creating the most sudden change in win probability in Brewers’ history.