2025 was Nathan Lukes first full season in the majors at age 30. He played 22 games for the Jays last year and 29 in 2023.

He certainly put in the time in the minors. Nathan played 391 games in Triple A and 213 games in Double A, plus 124 games in A-ball. In Triple A he hit .297/.363/.436. Unfortunately, if you don’t have power or great speed, you really have to prove yourself in the minors. It is not easy for a guy who is a high-average hitter to make it to the majors without power or speed.

But, Nathan kept at it and it has paid off for him and the Blue Jays.

Standard Batting Table WAR G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+ GIDP HBP SH SF IBB 2.0 135 438 388 55 99 19 2 12 65 2 4 38 60 .255 .323 .407 .730 100 12 2 7 3 2

Baseball Reference had him at a 2.0 WAR, FanGraphs at 1.8 giving him a value of $14.6 million.

He had a .317 wOBA and a 103 wRC+.

Nathan’s BABIP was .273 (down from .319 last year’s small sample).

His walk rate was 8.7% (down from 11.0%). The strikeout rate was up, 13.7% from 9.9.

Lukes’s line-drive rate was down from last year (18.5% from 26.1). Ground ball rate up (46.5% from 39.1). The fly ball rate about the same (35.0% from 34.8). More of his fly balls left the park (10.4% from 4.2).

His soft contact was up (16.3% from 12.5), and hard contact was up (31.1% from 19.4).

Nathan hit RHP (.257/.320/.413) slightly better than LHP (.238/.340/.357).

He hit a little better on the road (.256/.329/.433) than at home (.254/.315/.378).

Lukes hit better in the first half (.276/371/.398) than the second half (.237/.276/.415)

April: .222/.326/.333 with 1 home run, 5 walks and 6 strikeouts in 17 games, 12 starts.May: .299/.390/.463 with 3 home runs, 9 walks and 10 strikeouts in 25 games, 21 starts.June: .234/.333/.234 with 0 home runs, 7 walks and 6 strikeouts in 17 games, 12 starts.July: .247/.315/.494 with 5 home runs, 8 walks and 12 strikeouts in 25 games, 17 starts.August: .271/.308/.424 with 1 home runs, 5 walks and 13 strikeouts in 27 games, 22 starts.September: .236/.273/.389 with 2 home runs, 5 walks and 13 strikeouts in 24 games, 18 starts.

An up and down season, May and July were terrific. June wasn’t.

With RISP he hit .333/.383/.431.

Times facing a starting pitcher:

First: .290/.330/.409.Second: .202/.265/.371.Third: .239/.300/.478.He had 5 PA against a pitcher going 0 for 5.

He hit very well in high leverage spots, .319/.380/.464.

Defensively, he played 446.1 innings in right, 249.0 in left and 214.0 in center. He made just 2 errors, both in left field.

FanGraphs had him at a +4 outs above average in right, -1 in center and -2 in left. In total a +1 as an outfielder.

As a baserunner, Lukes was 1.4 runs below average. He stole 2 games, caught 4 times. Baseball Savant has him at the 46th percentile for ‘sprint speed’.

Where he hit in the order in starts:

1st: 23 games. .253/.315/.455.2nd: 17 games. .271/.301/.443.5th: 5 games. .381/.458/.429.6th: 13 games. .175/.353/.200.7th: 18 games. .200/.234/.350.8th: 10 games. .282/.370/.410.9th: 16 games. .281/.333/.456.

The Jays were 58-44 in Nathan’s starts.

Longest hitting streak: 5 games. Longest on base 10 games.

Longest without a home run, 32 games. Longest hitless streak 5 games.

Favourite team to face? He hit .357/.412/.471 in 5 games vs the Mariners.

Least favourite? He hit .059/.111/.059 in 5 game vs the Royals.

Postseason Batting Table Series Opp G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB SH ALDS NYY 4 12 12 0 4 2 0 0 5 0 0 0 1 .333 .333 .500 .833 6 0 ALCS SEA 7 30 27 3 9 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 4 .333 .400 .370 .770 10 0 WS LAD 6 26 23 2 4 1 0 0 1 0 0 2 5 .174 .240 .217 .457 5 1 1 Yr1 Yr 17 68 62 5 17 4 0 0 8 0 0 5 10 .274 .328 .339 .667 21 1 Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/22/2025.

Nathan doesn’t strikeout (94th percentile), and he walks a reasonable amount (54th percentile). And Baseball Savant likes his fielding, saying he’s in the 81st percentile for range and 96th for arm value.

His bat speed (6th percentile) and barrel rate (15th percentile) aren’t great. But he makes contact and Buck will tell you ‘just put it in play’.

It was very nice season for Lukes. He did everything you could want from a fourth/platoon outfielder. Had Anthony Santander not been injured (and terrible) most of the season, he likely would have played less.

He’s a good defensive replacement, good guy to put in the lineup against RHP. You wouldn’t mind a little more power from a corner outfielder, but, we have run through a number of fourth outfielder types, over the last couple of years, (and ones thought of as better prospects) and he’s done a better job than any of them.

If the team were to sign a free agent outfielder, or if Anthony Santander remembers how to hit home runs, Nathan will likely see less playing time next year, but I don’t see any reason he shouldn’t be a fourth outfielder/platoon player again next year.

Unfortunately, for him, he doesn’t hit arbitration until 2028 and wouldn’t be a free agent until 2031, so since he’s 31 now, he’s unlikely to make the big bucks before he ages out of the majors (not that the $740,000 he made last year isn’t a fair bit of money for playing a kid’s game). But we’ll see. He’s beat long odds to make it this far.