It will be a little strange to look at the Houston Astros starting rotation in 2026 and not see left-hander Framber Valdez anchoring it.
He’s been a part of the organization for a decade, as the Astros signed him as an international free agent out of the Dominican Republic in 2015. The organization nurtured his talent, turned him into a starter and he helped them win a World Series in 2022.
Perhaps the Astros did too good a job. Valdez is a free agent for the first time and after rejecting the Astros’ $22 million qualifying offer, the expectation is that he’ll have a new home next season.
Recently, The Athletic (subscription required) polled 10 MLB scouts and asked them to assess the top of the free agent pitching market. Their overall assessment was that Valdez is the best of the bunch. Their analysis was succinct.
Why Framber Valdez is the Best Free-Agent Pitcher
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While the scouts said there was no clear No. 1, in the poll Valdez received 31 points, including five first-place votes from the 10 scouts that were polled. He was up against Tatsuya Imai, Dylan Cease and Ranger Suárez. Scouts were allowed to pick a fifth starter, and those choices were Michael King, Zac Gallen, Lucas Giolito and Merrill Kelly.
Valdez is 32 years old and his experience clearly played a role in being selected first. Many of the scouts had good things to say, and one that voted him first provided a five-word analysis that describes the left-hander’s Houston career:
“He’s good, and he posts.”
Valdez is coming off a 2025 in which he went 13-11 with a. 3.66 ERA. He has been one of the most consistent left-handers in baseball since he arrived as a full-time starter in the 2021 season. He is 81-52 for his career with a 3.36 ERA, including 1,053 strikeouts. He went to the All-Star Game twice, claimed a ring with Houston in the 2022 World Series and has finished in the Top 10 in Cy Young voting three different times.
Multiple scouts praised his ability to handle a normal starter’s workload, along with key metrics such as an elite groundball rate and low walk rate compared to the other starters. Those are qualities that should compel the Astros to try and re-sign him. But the market is likely to get in the way, which is why he rejected the qualifying offer.
He’s universally considered a Top 10 overall free agent. Insider projection of his potential contract has ranged from $150 million over five years to $220 million over seven years. Any way he looks at it, he’s due a big payday, even as teams and players prepare for a potential lockout in 2027.
It appears to be too right for the Astros, who will move ahead with Hunter Brown as their ace in 2026.
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