Pros99th percentile arm value96th percentile sprint speed91st percentile Outs Above Average (OAA)65th percentile barrel%57th percentile squared-up%56th percentile hard-hit%
By every measure, Doyle is a truly elite defensive center fielder—top five in the league. His arm strength is comparable to Addison Barger’s, paired with Myles Straw–level speed (if not slightly better).
Why 2025 might not tell the whole story
There are whispers that Doyle played through injury in 2025, which may have significantly impacted his offensive numbers. In 2024, he was a 23-HR/30-SB player with a .763 OPS, .329 xwOBA, and 3.6 fWAR, backed by excellent batted-ball data.
Another sticking point with Doyle is his drastic home/road splits:
Typically, I take little stock in Rockies players’ home/road splits because constantly adjusting from Coors altitude to every other ballpark is an impossible ask. The split itself doesn’t automatically mean the offensive skill set isn’t real.
How Doyle fits the Blue Jays’ Roster
A key question is how Doyle fits into the Blue Jays’ outfield picture.
Daulton Varsho is a free agent after the 2026 season and is now represented by Scott Boras. An extension before free agency seems unlikely. That leaves two realistic outcomes:
A) Varsho walks, and Doyle becomes your starting center fielder through 2029.
B) Varsho hits the market but ultimately re-signs with Toronto. In that case, Varsho shifts back to a corner outfield role. His revived power, thanks to mechanical changes—uprighted stance, hand adjustments—makes that move more sensible, and it better protects against his 5th-percentile arm strength.
Trade Cost and Organizational Fit
Acquiring Doyle will not be cheap—assuming the Rockies even want to move him. With team control through 2030, a player with Doyle’s tools and defensive value likely costs multiple top-12 prospects and at least one MLB-ready piece.
But this is a player whose surface stats don’t tell the full story. Doyle has outlier traits that a competent, development-focused organization could unlock. Personally, I’d love to see what David Popkins and Lou Iannotti could do with Doyle’s profile if he ever landed in Toronto.
For all these reasons, Brenton Doyle is a player I believe would be worth the acquisition cost.
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