Now that the deadlines to shield prospects from the Rule 5 draft with 40-man roster spots and tender 2026 contracts to arbitration-eligible players have passed, it seems like a good time to do our first Minnesota Twins roster projection of the offseason.

In the two months since the Twins’ last game, they’ve changed managers and much of the coaching staff, switched out almost a quarter of the 40-man roster, made two trades for big leaguers and, somewhat surprisingly, retained Trevor Larnach to make an already crowded group of left-handed corner bats even more of a logjam.

We’ve done our best to project what the Opening Day roster would look like if the season started today, which should at least provide a sense of where help is needed for a 92-loss team with a payroll under $100 million. This is merely the first draft, with three months of revisions to come before spring training begins.

Catchers (2)

In: Ryan Jeffers, Alex Jackson

Others on the 40-man roster: Mickey Gasper, Jhonny Pereda

Aaron Gleeman: For three years, we began every Twins roster projection with Jeffers and Christian Vázquez sharing catcher duties. But now that Vázquez is a free agent, the front office moved quickly to replace him with Jackson, a 29-year-old journeyman acquired last week from the Baltimore Orioles for Triple-A infielder Payton Eeles.

Jackson is good defensively and has some power, but he’s also a career .153 hitter in 160 big-league games, and the Twins are his eighth organization. Admittedly, the bar for backup catchers is very low, especially offensively, but his career .527 OPS ranks 703rd out of the 707 players with at least 400 plate appearances since 2019.

Jeffers started 80, 81 and 73 games behind the plate the past three seasons, splitting time evenly with Vázquez. Presumably, the 2026 plan is for Jeffers to start 100-plus games, with Jackson — projected to make $1.8 million via arbitration — taking the remaining 50 or so. Jeffers could also be a trade candidate ahead of his walk year.

Alex Jackson just left the ballpark 😳 pic.twitter.com/3lmOhF9Ywp

— Baltimore Orioles (@Orioles) July 20, 2025

Dan Hayes: During the recent general managers’ meetings, Twins president Derek Falvey made it clear Jeffers would handle the bulk of the catching duties: “We’ll intend for him to take down a lot of the games,” a message the veteran said is music to his ears.

Falvey also acknowledged Jeffers’ impending free agency after this season, which makes me think he’s potentially a trade candidate. But for now, I’d think we’d see a split with Jeffers catching 100-110 games and Jackson slated for 50-60.

It will be interesting to see whether Jackson can capitalize on the best season of his career after producing a 110 OPS+ in 2025, albeit in just 100 plate appearances.

Infielders (5)

In: Kody Clemens, Luke Keaschall, Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis, Ryan Fitzgerald

Others on the 40-man roster: Edouard Julien, Ryan Kreidler

Hayes: It’s early in the offseason, and we don’t know how these things will play out. But if the Twins go into the season with Lee as the starting shortstop, they’re looking for him to increase the number of groundballs he gets to.

Falvey said Lee’s hands, footwork and throwing are plenty good to be a shortstop, but part of his offseason program involves improving lateral movement and agility. Of the 33 players with at least 500 innings at shortstop last season, Baseball Savant ranked Lee’s range 20th at minus-1 Outs Above Average. His production is far from the worst but is below average at a premium position.

Gleeman: My assumption coming into the offseason was that adding a good veteran bat at first base would be a priority, but instead, Falvey has indicated the job might be Clemens’ to lose. He has some power, and he’s minimum-salaried, but it’s not a great sign that a 30-year-old journeyman with a career 81 OPS+ is the default choice to start at an offense-driven position for a team desperate for lineup help.

If the Twins aren’t even going to be in the market for a mid-tier free-agent first baseman — along the lines of, say, Carlos Santana two years ago — then that’s a pretty strong indication they’re not serious about investing in the roster. It’s a clear need, with plenty of relatively inexpensive solutions available. We’ll see.

Outfielders (6)

In: Byron Buxton, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Alan Roden, Austin Martin, James Outman

Others on the 40-man roster: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Hendry Mendez, Carson McCusker, Gabriel Gonzalez

Gleeman: If you like left-handed-hitting corner outfielders, this is the place to be.

Tendering a 2026 contract to Larnach was a mild surprise because he’s projected to make $4.7 million via arbitration and the Twins are flush with younger, cheaper lefty bats. In addition to the five listed above, there’s top prospect Walker Jenkins, who isn’t on the 40-man roster yet but figures to be in the 2026 plans eventually.

The Twins could plan to trade Larnach. Barring that, they could split right field and designated hitter between Larnach and Wallner and use Roden in left field. But all three lefty hitters could use right-handed platoon partners, and only Martin fits that bill currently. For now, it’s a lopsided, mismatched outfield mix.

Trevor Larnach launches a homer 434 feet 🚀 pic.twitter.com/S45Pdfwq4B

— MLB (@MLB) August 4, 2025

Hayes: You’d have to think the Twins are looking into a trade of some sort, whether it’s Larnach or another outfielder.

Larnach is a redundant player, and his splits against right-handed pitching don’t stand out enough to where I thought they’d bring him back. Perhaps they’ll include him in a trade, or maybe one of their other options is enticing. But this crowded house doesn’t make sense as a one-off move, which means patience is required to see how it plays out.

The outfield’s potential over the next few seasons is very intriguing with Jenkins, Rodriguez — who’s having a nice run in winter league — and Gabriel Gonzalez on the way. The depth of future options in the outfield is clearly one reason the Twins’ farm system is highly touted.

Starting pitchers (5)

In: Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson, Taj Bradley

Others on the 40-man roster: Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel, David Festa, Andrew Morris, John Klein, Kendry Rojas

Gleeman: This is where projecting the roster gets trickiest, because the Twins are deep in rotation options and severely lacking in bullpen options. That points to one or more young starters being moved to relief, but which ones? And if some combo of López, Ryan and Ober is traded, then the rotation depth vanishes anyway.

We’ve penciled in Woods Richardson and Bradley as the two younger starters in the rotation with the veteran trio, but Matthews, Abel and Festa are also options to fill the fourth and fifth spots. And as you’ll see below, there’s no way to build a complete bullpen projection for now without using some starters there.

Hayes: Since we’re discussing potential, I found it interesting the other day when FanGraphs’ early projections have the Twins finishing 82-80. I have to imagine most of our readers are shocked by that projection. This starting pitching is why the Twins are projected to be solid.

When we review what happened in July, it makes sense the Twins would travel further down the road and trade Ryan or López. The payoff for Ryan would be outstanding, and López would get the Twins a lot back, too. But you’ve already killed the fans with July. Another step or two taken in that direction is going to do serious harm to a group teetering on the edge.

Winning most definitely cures all. But I can’t imagine what this fan base would look like if López or Ryan were traded and Buxton were to make it clear he wants out. Buxton wanted to be here for the rest of his career, and the Twins and his reps worked out a fair contract for both sides. But he wants to win and play for a winning club. Alienating and ultimately losing Buxton would be one of the worst moves and messages in franchise history.

Relief pitchers (8)

In: Cole Sands, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Eric Orze, Travis Adams, Pierson Ohl, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya

Others on the 40-man roster: N/A

Hayes: Adding Orze is clearly designed to bring stability. The Twins need more of that, and perhaps they can find some affordable options in free agency after several intriguing arms were non-tendered last week.

Prielipp and Raya were identified by Falvey as bullpen options earlier this month, and you can see the upside, but both will face big learning curves. Funderburk, along with Martin in the outfield, is one of the players who took advantage of their newfound opportunity after the deadline. Topa is solid when healthy.

Even though the front office traditionally hasn’t spent a lot of money on the bullpen, this group needs more. It doesn’t even have to be a big-name pitcher. They just need depth to solidify manager Derek Shelton’s late-innings options.

Gleeman: This just isn’t an MLB-caliber bullpen, as we saw after the Twins traded their top five relievers in the deadline fire sale. If the front office has any notion of being a competitive team, multiple veteran relievers able to handle late-inning roles are needed. For now, they don’t have a reliever set to make more than $1.3 million.