I think the OP pretty much hits the nail on the head. Just a couple small moves so far for an OK pen arm with SOME potential, and an inexpensive backup catcher with a good defensive reputation, a little power, and that would be just fine if he can hit around .200 give or take. No other moves or hints of potential moves at this point. 

I’m really not trying to be optimistic here, but a few points that keep rattling around in my head:

1] The Twins have generally moved slowly to begin the offseason and let the bigger names move on that they weren’t in on anyway.

2] While I don’t put much faith in “management speak”, Falvey has stated more than a few times he wants to keep Lopez and Ryan and made additions, not subtractions. He may be a lot of things, but I don’t recall Falvey ever saying something that was actually a lie. 

3] Even last season, when payroll was looking to be in the low $120 range, Joe…or someone within ownership…made a push and the FO had an extra $15M or so to spend. Now, that $ came in rather late, maybe too late to do much good, but it gave the FO a little more room to at least made some additions. Final opening day payroll was between $138-142M depending on what site you read.

4] The history of this FO has been to set a FLOOR for the team and then make changes and additions. 

5] Shelton has alluded to conversations on his hiring about a direction for the team. Illusions and lies? Or promises about about at least a “decent” payroll projection?

Again, I’m NOT blowing optimistic smoke at anyone. But these are facts to consider at this point with the minority owners yet to be ratified, questions remaining about the actual payroll, and past history of operation. 

Maybe the payroll is a flabbergasting and inexcusable $100-110M. And maybe it’s actually going to be $120-125M or so. (Can’t believe we’d be asked to be overjoyed by that). We just don’t know yet.

Was Larnach kept for the purpose of establishing a FLOOR for now with intent to try to move him for SOMETHING? That’s my bet, but we’ll see. Post arbitration, WITH Larnach, the roster sits about $90M. I want to say it’s Fangraphs, but they project around $96M because they automatically add about $6M for 8 projected roster additions for the season due to injuries. That’s fine. But I like to look at the ACTUAL opening day roster as opposed to possible projections. Add an extra $1M for Jackson, and we’re still only $86M ish without Larnach, $91 ish with him for now.

But IF Ryan and Lopez are there opening day, that’s a good thing and it would mean the payroll was probably pushed a little, even though they are PART of that $86-91M payroll number. Larnach moved for WHATEVER, TBD, takes it down to around $86M again.

IMO, any mention of Clemens as a “value addition” to the 2025 team and a possible 1B option is “management speak” for a base FLOOR. We’ve heard and seen this previously over the years.

How about Nathaniel Lowe as a 1B option…who’s quietly had a solid career…for $8-10M? Maybe 2yrs at $16-20M to settle 1B for the immediate future while other prospects FINALLY start to transition to 1B for the long term? He doesn’t have to be platooned, and Clemens can be a LH power bat off the bench at 4 and maybe 5 spots.

DO the Twins move Prielipp to the pen, at least for 2026? I’m slowly adapting to that idea. And maybe Funderburk has actually turned a corner. But how about Coulombe, Rogers, Chaffin, or Thielbar on a 1yr $3-4M for added, veteran depth? IDK who right now from the RH side because the list is long, but how about ONE RH option for around $4-5M that is of the Romero type for a veteran add for additional stability as the younger conversion prospects get time?

Those very simple, logical, potentially helpful moves cost, at most, about $19M. You don’t need a calculator to say WITH Larnach the payroll is STILL only $110M. Larnach moved, we’re looking at a rough $105M. While that number is still grossly and aggressively low, it STILL allows for a very solid 1B and a pair of veteran RP to help stabilize the INF, the lineup, and a rebuilt bullpen.

More numbers to drive you crazy? The projected payroll numbers proposed have $800K FILLERS for those 3 spots currently. So you can actually subtract another $2.4M off of that total payroll number. That, and maybe a couple $K more might bring in someone like Falefa, for example, as a veteran utility player who can at least cover SS on an occasional basis until K-Pepper is ready.

Regardless of Falvey having no or little understanding of the ACTUAL payroll he has to work with, EVEN a 2026 payroll of $120M could STILL ALLOW the addition of a solid 1B and a pair of veteran pen arms to help in the rebuild of the bullpen for 2026.

It’s absolutely RIDICULOUS we have to be talking about a $120M payroll as a good thing. BUT, as the OP states, there are 3 primary reasons to realize if ownership gives a DAMN or not. And if they actually DO the 3 things presented, even with a BS payroll that I don’t believe in, at $120M-ish, with talent on hand, prospects ready to debut, interesting arms converting, and a few solid additions as laid out, I can see a fun team to watch that offers an actual competitive chance to reach the playoffs and show hope for the future.

If we DON’T see these so easy, so obvious moves made, then we are facing a massive rebuild. And again, sarcastically, we know how easy those are.