It’s been the same old story for the San Diego Padres in recent years: spend $200 million to put together a roster with plenty of star power, finish the regular season with roughly 90 wins, and then go home without winning the NL pennant.
It’s undoubtedly been a frustrating period for the fan base, but if there’s any consolation, at least they’re spending money and legitimately attempting to compete in the modern era of baseball that features wild payrolls.
But at the end of the day, everyone involved — players, coaches, fans, front office members, and owners — wants results. A World Series still eludes the franchise, and the Padres haven’t even advanced beyond the NLCS since 1998.
Is something going to change in 2026? Unfortunately, it seems unlikely.
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We’re now in the midst of the MLB offseason, and it’s clear that the Padres are going to need to address a few holes on the roster in the coming months. With Dylan Cease and Michael King no longer under contract, starting pitching is the most pressing need.
Padres’ general manager A.J. Preller understands this and was very upfront about the team’s need to add starting arms.
“Every year, every team in here is talking about starting pitching. But especially with [Michael] King and [Dylan] Cease in free agency and [Yu] Darvish’s injury, it’s probably our top need going into the offseason,” said Preller at the recent GM meetings.
Without King, Cease, and Yu Darvish, the rotation gets thin rather quickly.
Nick Pivetta, Joe Musgrove, and Randy Vasquez will all be back in the mix next year, but is this core enough to get San Diego over the hump and into the World Series? It’s hard to believe the answer is yes.
But for a team that consistently hovers around the $200 million mark for their yearly payroll, they can just go out and sign one of the marquee free agents like Framber Valdez or Ranger Suarez, right?
Unfortunately for fans, a splashy free agent signing seems unlikely.
A recent report from Dennis Lin of The Athletic indicates that the Padres won’t have much financial flexibility this winter.
“FanGraphs estimates the Padres, before filling obvious needs for starting pitching and a corner bat, are carrying a 2026 payroll of $201 million. San Diego ended last season at $211 million, and team sources indicate that next year’s target could fall in the same neighborhood,” wrote Lin.
Lin also notes that with no-trade clauses in the contracts of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis, and Xander Bogaerts, shedding significant money will be difficult.
So, if the Padres are going to beef up the rotation, it seems that they’re going to have to find a diamond in the rough.
It’s entirely possible that they’re able to do so, but all signs point to San Diego’s starting pitching taking a clear step back in 2026. While the bats could make up for that, a middling rotation just isn’t going to cut it in the NL.
When it’s all said and done in 2026, don’t be surprised if it’s more of the same for the Padres: a season that delivers promise in some moments, but ultimately ends in failure and disappointment.