The Athletic recently cited unnamed “people briefed on (Milwaukee’s) plans” that the Brewers are “fretting” over payroll. MLB Trade Rumors posted the story on Thanksgiving, too. As a result, national news outlets continue to advocate for Brewers’ pitcher, Freddy Peralta, to be traded this offseason.
It is no surprise when pundits openly wonder which veteran player a small-market team will trade next. Speculation is what makes baseball’s offseason so much fun. At the same time, claims that the 2026 Brewers’ payroll is a problem and that Milwaukee needs to trade Peralta this winter are both highly questionable.
The Brewers’ 2026 payroll is currently projected to be $136 million, according to FanGraphs. This would be an estimated $13 million increase over last season’s final payroll numbers. However, Milwaukee’s 2022 final payroll was $138 million. There is little evidence to believe the Brewers cannot support a payroll smaller than a few years ago, especially after an appearance in last season’s National League Championship Series.
If Milwaukee were worried about a $13 million payroll increase, it would not have extended a $22.025 million qualifying offer to Brandon Woodruff. The Brewers already have plenty of cost-controlled pitchers to fill next year’s rotation. On the other hand, it was clear from the postseason that Milwaukee lacked an additional top-of-the-rotation starter who could be relied upon in October. Woodruff’s contract is a calculated risk for 2026 to make the team better.
Brewers’ principal owner, Mark Attanasio, and President of Baseball Operations, Matt Arnold, both told The Athletic in a November 18 article after signing Brandon Woodruff that Milwaukee is “excited about our rotation,” and the future of Freddy Peralta was an “independent decision.” A rotation of Peralta, Woodruff, Quinn Priester, and Jacob Misiorowski would be among the best in the National League. The Brewers could conceivably do nothing else for the remainder of the offseason and be favored to win a third consecutive Central Division title.
All that to say, Milwaukee does not need to trade Freddy Peralta. For three consecutive years, Peralta has made 30 or more starts with 200 or more strikeouts. Eight million dollars cannot buy that level of performance, especially on a one-year commitment. Dollar for dollar, Peralta could be the most valuable veteran starting pitcher in the league, especially for a small-market team.
The best argument for trading Peralta is the promise of receiving multiple years of control from one or more prospects. It is worth noting that Milwaukee already has the best minor league system in the league, according to Baseball America’s 2025 mid-season report. The Brewers’ top three prospects are shortstops with Cooper Pratt and Jesus Made already appearing in Double-A last season. Jeferson Quero and Marco Dinges already have bright futures as catchers. The Brewers do lack high-end outfield talent, but Jackson Chourio and Sal Frelick are entrenched in Milwaukee for several years.
A high-end pitching prospect with five or six years of team control would be worth considering. The prospect would need to be “can’t miss” because the Brewers already have Misiorowski, Priester, Patrick, Henderson, Ashby, and Gasser for multiple years, too.
It is tempting to wonder about the unnamed sources that receive briefings on the Brewers’ level of payroll comfort. Are the briefings in PowerPoint format, or are they simply conversations overheard at the water cooler? Do the briefings address the contradiction of expressing an urgent need to shed one-year financial commitments to add multi-year commitments, presumably in free agency?
It is absurd to suggest the Brewers need to trade Freddy Peralta to sign Isiah Kiner-Falefa or another platoon player. Matt Arnold did not win his second consecutive Executive of the Year award by fretting about payroll or doubting the organization’s long-term plans.
Freddy Peralta understandably should be on every team’s Christmas wish list. But what can a big market club offer a small market club that already has everything it needs to win 97 games and high-level prospects at most positions?