The Toronto Blue Jays are reportedly signing right-handed starting pitcher Dylan Cease to a seven-year deal worth $210 million. It’s a good sign for the rest of the starting pitchers’ market that the soon-to-be 30-year-old got a seven-year deal at that price point.

Cease is my fourth-ranked starter in the free-agent market this off-season, behind lefties Framber Valdez and Ranger Suarez and righty Tatsuya Imai, who has been posted by his former team in Japan.

It is rare for a Scott Boras client to sign a free-agent contract of this magnitude this early in the off-season. Generally, it’s a sign the player heard an offer they didn’t expect to get and jumped to sign the deal.

Cease has an excellent arm, and he’s been one of the most durable pitchers in baseball. He hasn’t missed a start since getting to the major leagues in 2019. He has made 188 starts and is 65-58 with a 3.88 ERA. He’s been among the league leaders in strikeouts in each of the past five seasons, never finishing with fewer than 214. He finished second in Cy Young balloting in 2022 and fourth in 2024. Cease takes the ball every fifth day and logs innings.

Those are the positives, but there are some negatives. Cease has never been an All-Star, and he can be inconsistent and streaky. His peripheral numbers are usually better than his standard numbers, and his expected numbers are better than his actual numbers, which in many cases indicates some bad luck for a pitcher.

But no pitcher is just unlucky every year. At some point you earn your stats. Cease has swing-and-miss stuff and tallies strikeouts, which help his expected numbers, but it’s the walks he allows that are problematic.

The new Blue Jays starter only had a 94 ERA+ in 2025, which means he was six per cent below average (100 ERA+ is average). It was his worst season in his past five, finishing 8-12 with a 4.55 ERA.

I understand that Cease is the kind of pitcher who is intriguing to teams because of the quality of his fastball and slider. Both of those pitches can be elite. But he is primarily a two-pitch pitcher, which makes him less effective the second and third time through the lineup and against left-handed hitters. He’s also less effective with men on base, so his stuff and his command are weakened when pitching out of the stretch.

To justify and rationalize the big contract, the Blue Jays must believe they can help Cease maintain his strikeout numbers while improving his other numbers by adding a third and/or fourth pitch (curve ball/split). They must believe they can refine his delivery and mental approach, allowing him to throw more strikes and cut down on the walks.

It’s true that Cease has been very durable throughout his career, but I’m not sure that is necessarily a good thing. Cease hasn’t missed a start in six seasons, but what pitcher stays healthy for 13 years? Statistically, it’s unheard of. I don’t mean to be pessimistic, but pitchers get hurt. It seems likely that Cease will get injured at some point early in the contract, since it hasn’t happened yet in his career.

I do like that the Jays now have another starter signed beyond the 2026 season. Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber and Eric Lauer are all free agents after next season, plus Jose Berrios has an opt-out to consider.

Contract feels like an overpay

I have to admit that I’m surprised that the Jays gave Cease such a big contract. I’m not opposed to signing him, it’s just that the price point feels like an overpay. But it’s not my money.

The concern is whether the signing limits what else they can do this off-season. With Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt and Seranthony Dominguez in free agency, the Jays have about $45 million coming off the books. Cease eats up a big chunk of that, but it still leaves about $15 million to be sprinkled around the rest of the roster.

Some of the remaining money can go in the direction of Bo Bichette, who made close to $18 million last season and will command more as a free agent. There have been reports that the Jays are pursuing outfielder Kyle Tucker instead of Bichette, but the Cease signing may put an end to those rumors. Tucker is expected to get a deal in the $350-$400 million range. It would take a huge bump in payroll for Toronto to sign Cease and Tucker and still fill out the rest of the roster.

Remember, the Jays have more work to do above adding a starter and either Bichette or his offensive replacement. Plus, many of the remaining players on the roster will get bumps in pay this season.

Scherzer and Bassitt are free agents, but signing Cease – in addition to Bieber opting in for 2026 and getting a full season from Trey Yesavage – gives the Jays plenty of impact and depth in the rotation. Lauer and Bowden Francis add protection, as do a number of prospects, including Ricky Tiedemann, who should be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery.

All eyes on the bullpen

The Blue Jays’ bullpen still needs to addressed. Every bullpen can be unpredictable from one year to the next. Bullpens that pitch deep into the postseason tend to be even more unpredictable the following year.

Relief pitching was a weakness for most of the season for the Jays, finishing with the 16th-ranked bullpen ERA (3.98) and allowing the second-most home runs. Closer Jeff Hoffman had a very high 4.37 ERA with seven blown saves and seven losses while allowing the second most home runs by a reliever (15).

The Jays need to add a closer this off-season. The one lesson the Jays learned last season is that you can’t have a championship-calibre roster at every spot except closer. At some point you will get burned.

The Jays don’t need to sign Edwin Diaz, who is the best available closer, but they need to push Hoffman to a setup role, where he has been more comfortable in his career. By doing so, it would replace the loss of Dominguez to free agency and give Jays’ manager John Schneider another option besides Louis Varland in the seventh and eighth innings.

Former Padres’ closer Robert Suarez would be my choice for Toronto. The 35-year-old righty will likely command $16-$18 million per year for three years. That’s the price of competing for a championship.

The Jays need to build as much depth as possible going into the 2026 season. Playing into November doesn’t just take a toll on pitchers, it does on position players as well. Add in the fact that the World Baseball Classic is set to be played this February and March, and it shortens the off-season even more. Less recovery time for the body can lead to breakdowns and running out of gas in the second half of the season.

Every team needs to contemplate that, but the Jays and Los Angeles Dodgers need to consider it the most.

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